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Share prices

21/09/2020

A snapshot of bike and ATV industry share performance across key manufacturers and major global markets at the trading week closure on Friday 18 September 2020. BDN financial editor Roger Willis reports.

USA — CRUISING ON EMPTY

Although the American tech-share collapse has petered out, investor fatigue was evident in New York, where benchmark indices were febrile. The blue-chip S&P 500 fell for a third consecutive week, but only by 0.6%, while the Dow Jones Inustrial Average closed dead flat. Main influences came from a studied lack of fresh or extended economic stimulus measures by the US Federal Reserve and the stubborn volume of weekly unemployment claims data, suggesting recovery is going to be much slower than hoped. All powersport listings were negative, with Harley-Davidson taking the hardest hit (see below).            

HOG-OMETER — BARGAIN BASEMENT

Our Hog-ometer monitoring Harley-Davidson’s share price ticked into life on Monday with a spoof 0.9% gain marginally up into $28 territory, and then spun remorselessly in the opposite direction. Tuesday saw an abrupt loss of 2.6%, followed by a worse 3.1% drop on Wednesday. And there would be no respite. The price continued to fall, by 2.5% on Thursday and then 2.1% on Friday, finishing at its lowest level since early July.            

Indeed, the scale of this weekly retreat was almost as bad as the plunge after Harley’s announcement of rubbish half-yearly results in the final week of July. And this time there was no similar excuse. Furthermore, it confounded modest five-session 0.6% positivity in Wall Street’s S&P MidCap index where Harley resides. Speculators are now likely to “buy the dip” in pursuit of short-term profiteering, so a return to extreme volatility is predictable. And, unusually, the company has yet to set a date for its forthcoming Q3 results revelation due in October.     

Currency: dollar

Price

Week

Month

Harley-Davidson

25.24

-9.1%

-8.6%

Polaris Industries

89.58

-3.3%

-11.2%

Textron

37.65

-2.8%

+0.1%

EUROPE — UNTRUSTWORTHY INDICATORS 

Wildly inconsistent economic performance surveys dampened European sentiment too, demolishing the previous week’s confidence. Second-wave Covid infection surges in many countries didn’t help either.         

In Frankfurt, the Xetra Dax index slipped by 0.7% and both big German automotives with biker sidelines posted retreats. Volkswagen took by far the worst knock. BMW, incidentally, has stopped releasing monthly global retail sales updates for its cars and motorcycles. A sign of distressed times? KTM parent Pierer bucked the trend with a share-price hike. But this was based on truly miniscule trading volumes. On Friday, a mere 70 Pierer shares changed hands on the Frankfurt börse, which will imminently become the company’s sole eurozone ticker.    

Currency: euro

Price

Week

Month

BMW

63.45

-0.9%

+12%

Volkswagen

151.60

-4.8%

+2.7%

Pierer Mobility

53.00

+2.9%

+9.5%

Italy was even more depressed. The Borsa Italiana’s MIB index slumped by 1.5% from the previous week’s short spurt of optimism. Piaggio more than doubled that trouble. Energica shares flat-lined for a second week on the trot.

Currency: euro

Price

Week

Month

Piaggio Group

2.38

-3.3%

-4%

Energica Motor

1.89

N/A

-4.5%

JAPAN — TIMIDITY RULES 

New York’s cautious mood inevitably spread around the developed world to Tokyo, where the Nikkei 225 index struggled to go anywhere, closing just 0.2% below dead flat. Prospects for motorcycle manufacturers were clearly seen as trailing behind such a timid curve and the whole lot lost ground to varying degrees.                                                                                                                                                                                                           

Currency: yen

Price

Week

Month

Honda

2613

-1.5%

-1.4%

Yamaha

1594

-6%

-4.5%

Suzuki

4303

-2.2%

+2.7%

Kawasaki

1527

-2.6%

+4%

INDIA — DIWALI BECKONS

AS India’s seasonal consumer frenzy ramps up towards its Diwali crescendo in mid-November — the Hindu equivalent of Xmas — it’s seen as auspicious to acquire bigger-ticket items such as motorbikes and scooters. So most manufacturers appear to be enjoying improvements on their August sales recoveries, as evidenced by mounting share prices. Royal Enfield parent Eicher, which had a bad month in August, is the exception. However, the Indian Covid crisis is unabated, subduing overall investor sentiment. As a result, Mumbai’s BSE Sensex 30 stock market index flat-lined through the past week.        

Currency: rupee

Price

Week

Month

Hero MotoCorp

3112.65

+4%

+2.6%

Bajaj Auto

3050.95

+4.6%

-0.1%

TVS Motor

457.30      

+2.9%

+0.9%

Eicher Motors

2152.95

-0.3%

-0.8%

Mahindra

654.15

+6.5%

+7.3%

CHINA — RAMPANT RECOVERY

China’s Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges hugely outperformed their equivalents in the US and Europe, thanks to ample data indicating a V-shaped retail sales rebound in what is effectively a post-Covid climate. Chinese government officials claimed that there are now only 165 active cases in the entire country. The SSE Composite index in Shanghai stacked 0n 2.4% by close of play. Our BDN Ten index of listed bike producers did even better, rising by 3.2%.         

Currency: yuan

Price

Week

Month

Qianjiang

24.99

-4.3%

+29.7%

Zongshen

8.43

+1.8%

-8%

Sundiro

3.75

-0.8%

-7.4%

CETC Energy    

6.11

+5.3%

-3.8%

Lifan

5.59

+7.1%

+27.9%

Loncin

4.09

-0.7%

-9.1%

Linhai

7.15

+0.3%

-6.9%

Guangzhou Auto

10.87

+7.2%

+4.2%

CFMoto

137.71

+6.8%

+29.9%

 

Currency: HK dollar

Price

Week

Month

Jianshe

4.76

+9.4%

+15.5%