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Share prices

28/09/2020

A snapshot of bike and ATV industry share performance across key manufacturers and major global markets at the trading week closure on Friday 25 September 2020. BDN financial editor Roger Willis reports.

USA — DISEASE DOMINATION

While New York’s benchmark S&P 500 index was propped up to some extent by a mild tech rally, it nevertheless fell for a fourth consecutive week, 0.6% down again. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P MidCap — both packed with more traditional manufacturers — fared worse, respectively losing 1.7% and 2.6%. Weaker investor confidence was driven by increasing Covid-19 outbreaks in the US and elsewhere, as reflected in a 2.8% decline for the FTSE All-World index. Among American biker-related stocks, only Polaris bucked this trend. Harley and Textron most obviously didn’t.              

HOG-OMETER — EDGE OF AN ABYSS?

Our Hog-ometer measuring Harley-Davidson’s erratic share-price performance headed remorselessly downwards for a second week on the trot, without relief from speculators “buying the dip”. Monday delivered a sharp 3.8% descent. Tuesday moderated to a 1.3% loss, before Wednesday’s 2.8% retreat. Respective 0.8% and 1.4% daily declines followed on Thursday and Friday, adding up to a 9.7% weekly plunge. The previous five sessions had recorded a 9.1% deterioration.                     

Mid-week news that Harley was shuttering its loss-making operation in India, after ten fruitless years of trying to break into the world’s biggest motorcycle market, should have produced a lift from investors who admire cost-cutting attempts, but actually had no impact. A parallel revelation about the brand’s core Sportster range disappearing from Europe next year, because it is incapable of being upgraded to Euro 5 emissions compliance, probably scuppered any chance of optimism. Harley has now jettisoned a fifth of its capitalisation value in the past month.            

Currency: dollar

Price

Week

Month

Harley-Davidson

22.78

-9.7%

-19.9%

Polaris Industries

90.84

+1.4%

-12.8%

Textron

35.27

-6.3%

-11.8%

EUROPE — SOMBRE MOOD 

An autumnal chill, fuelled by waning signs of economic recovery and renewed lockdowns threatening many countries, put European markets on course for their worst performance since March. In Germany, Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax index sank by 5% and all biker-related Teutonic shares fell, BMW and Volkswagen losing ground for a second consecutive week.         

KTM parent Pierer Mobility’s swansong closure on the Wiener Börse in Austria was marked by a sharp return to negativity (see below). That listing will disappear on 30 September, leaving only a sole eurozone presence in Frankfurt. And perhaps an indicator of things to come was harsher treatment by German traders over the past week. Pierer’s share price in Frankfurt, starting from an identical €53.00 point five sessions earlier, took a bigger hit, finishing 7.9% down at €48.80.       

Currency: euro

Price

Week

Month

BMW

59.68

-5.9%

+0.2%

Volkswagen

145.80

-3.8%

-4.3%

Pierer Mobility

50.00

-5.7%

+2%

Although Italy has been successfully avoiding the recent Coronavirus infection flare-up, thanks to better enforcement of social and workplace discipline, it’s still facing the same grim economic prospects as everybody else in Europe. Milan’s Borsa Italiana MIB index therefore dropped pretty much in line with continental tendencies, finishing 4.2% lower. Piaggio sank by more and Energica followed approximately the same curve for four sessions — until catastrophe struck on Friday.         

It seems to have been the victim of an equities trader deciding to exit his large bet on the future of electric motorcycles and stampeding others out of the door too. By the time nearly a quarter of a million Energica shares (a lot for any small-cap company) had found buyers, their value suffered a single-session plunge of 15.5%. Online ratings agencies like Stockopedia categorise Energica as a “sucker stock”, typically acquired for fanciful notions rather than sound investment returns.

Currency: euro

Price

Week

Month

Piaggio Group

2.25

-5.5%

-7%

Energica Motor

1.50

-20.6%

-21.9%

JAPAN — GLOBAL PRESSURES 

Ever conscious of its dependence on exporting goods, Japan set a gloomy tone that spread across Asian markets. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index posted another minor fall, this time of 0.7%. All four indigenous motorcycle manufacturers retreated, some by considerably larger degrees, for the second week running too.                                        

Currency: yen

Price

Week

Month

Honda

2474.5

-5.3%

-8.7%

Yamaha

1549

-2.8%

-6.5%

Suzuki

4278

-0.6%

-0.3%

Kawasaki

1441

-5.6%

-2.9%

INDIA — A FLIP OF THE COIN

Festive seasonal optimism in India suddenly faded in the face of widespread pandemic-related economic factors. Mumbai’s BSE Sensex stock index took a 3.8% dive and the five major Indian bike producers rolled backwards in unison, despite their reportedly improving unit sales.     

Currency: rupee

Price

Week

Month

Hero MotoCorp

3002.00

-3.6%

-1.9%

Bajaj Auto

2957.40

-3.1%

-1.9%

TVS Motor

446.95      

-2.3%

-0.6%

Eicher Motors

2117.50

-1.6%

-4.3%

Mahindra

592.30

-9.5%

-6.2%

CHINA — JOINING THE TIMID TEAM

Unusually, China took its cue from other Asian markets, presumably sharing concerns that a Covid-generated global economic downturn would hurt Chinese export prospects too. Shanghai’s SSE Composite index reversed its previous weekly gain to close 3.6% in arrears. The BDN Ten index of listed Chinese motorcycle makers took a harder knock, sinking by 5%. Unique exception versus nine losers was Benelli parent Qianjiang, which bucked its recent negative trend.         

Currency: yuan

Price

Week

Month

Qianjiang

25.32

+1.3%

+17.5%

Zongshen

7.88

-6.5%

-12.6%

Sundiro

3.70

-1.3%

-6.8%

CETC Energy    

5.71

-6.5%

-7.5%

Lifan

5.20

-7%

+46.5%

Loncin

3.82

-6.6%

-12.2%

Linhai

6.76

-5.5%

-11.5%

Guangzhou Auto

9.61

-11.6%

-8.2%

CFMoto

133.55

-3%

+9.2%

Currency: HK dollar

Price

Week

Month

Jianshe

4.61

-3.2%

+11.4%