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Share prices

05/10/2020

A snapshot of bike and ATV industry share performance across key manufacturers and major global markets at the trading week closure on Friday 2 October 2020. BDN financial editor Roger Willis reports.

USA — TRUMPED TWICE

US market indices started positive, reversing four consecutive weeks of losses, initially lifted by upbeat news on Covid vaccine development. They even managed to cope with heightened volatility mid-week, in the wake of a brutally abusive televised presidential election debate between Donald Trump and his Democrat challenger Joe Biden. Then news that Trump had personally succumbed to the virus upset that apple cart as the weekend approached.                     

Nevertheless, subsiding sentiment wasn’t enough to push them into negativity again. The blue-chip S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average hung onto respective 1.5% and 1.9% weekly gains at close of play. S&P’s MidCap index, where the two big motorcycle-related stocks lurk, did much better, climbing by 4.7%. Harley-Davidson and Polaris both blossomed accordingly.               

HOG-OMETER — PROFIT SEEKING RESUMES

After three successive weeks of sharpening correction which collectively wiped 17.9% off Harley-Davidson’s share price, short-term speculators finally bought into a big-enough dip to serve their purposes. On Monday, our Hog-ometer spun into life and stacked on 5%. However, the price sank by 1.3% on Tuesday, suggesting some bets were being hedged. This proved to be a temporary loss of confidence. A home run ensued. — 3.9% up on Wednesday, 2.5% higher on Thursday and then adding 2.6% on Friday.                      

Whether the resultant 13.3% hike is enough to tempt those first entrants to seek a prompt exit is debatable. Harley’s Q3 results are due towards the end of October. So speculative mucking about may continue unabated, until analysts start to prognosticate on imminent corporate performance data being good, bad or indifferent.            

Currency: dollar

Price

Week

Month

Harley-Davidson

25.81

+13.3%

-6.7%

Polaris Industries

98.83

+8.8%

+0.1%

Textron

35.72

+1.3%

-8.3%

EUROPE — TENTATIVELY BRIGHTER 

The European mood was mixed, taking some leads — on fiscal stimulus, for instance — from the other side of the Atlantic, but not others. Nevertheless, Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax index flipped from the previous week’s grievous retreat to a 1.8% improvement.         

KTM parent Pierer Mobility’s debut with a solely German eurozone listing in Frankfurt was honoured with what looks like a useful advance (see below). This was calculated from week-on-week closing prices in Germany, though. Using the previous swansong close in Vienna of €50, Pierer was only 1% up. BMW bounced back from loss to a genuinely more muscular gain. Volkswagen’s losing streak continued. It wasn’t helped by former VW chief executive Martin Winterkorn making his first appearance in a courtroom dock, as his criminal trial relating to the Dieselgate scandal begins in earnest. He could face up to ten years in jail if convicted.      

Currency: euro

Price

Week

Month

BMW

62.02

+3.9%

+0.4%

Volkswagen

143.30

-1.7%

-6.1%

Pierer Mobility

50.50

+3.5%

-1.9%

Milan’s Borsa Italiana MIB index also recovered from the previous week’s hammering, rising by 2%. Piaggio was an undoubted star of the show, rallying tremendously on ANCMA industry association registrations data for October highlighting Italian scooter market recovery. Energica was still down in the dumps, barely moving from its horrendous loss five sessions earlier.          

Currency: euro

Price

Week

Month

Piaggio Group

2.46

+9.3%

+1.2%

Energica Motor

1.51

+0.7%

-20.1%

JAPAN — UNPLUGGED 

Japanese biker shares, and every other sort, were all over the place at the end of a chaotic week. In the early hours of Thursday morning, the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s electronic price-quote system suffered a catastrophic hardware outage. And its back-up, dependent on other Fujitsu magic boxes, failed too. Ticker screens on trading floors all over Japan went blank and equities business hit the buffers. By the time normal service was restored on Friday, the majority of investors had packed up and gome home. The Nikkei 225 index was inevitably switched off as well for the duration but eventually revived to post a weekly fall of 0.8%.                                                                                                                                                                                                             

Currency: yen

Price

Week

Month

Honda

2497

+0.9%

-9.4%

Yamaha

1543

-0.48%

-8.2%

Suzuki

4473

+4.6%

-2.5%

Kawasaki

1370

-4.9%

-7.1%

INDIA — SHOP UNTIL YOU DROP

Indian confidence was abruptly rebooted on Thursday morning, after the release of very strong festive-season retail sales growth data covering September. The Bombay Stock Exchange shrugged off Covid-inspired gloom in the previous week and an early loss-making hangover to bounce back remarkably. Its BSE Sensex 30 index finally closed on a 3.5% weekly gain. That certainly would have been higher, except trading ended after four sessions, because Friday was Gandhi Jayanti, a national public holiday celebrating the birth of independence guru Mahatma Gandhi.         

The share prices of every indigenous motorcycle manufacturer followed suit, thanks to their monthly unit sales recoveries. Market leader Hero MotoCorp was inevitably on top of the pile, 16.1% up to almost 700,000 bikes sold. Bajaj boasted a much bigger volume increase of almost 24% in domestic sales, but wasn’t so well-rewarded by investors.       

Currency: rupee

Price

Week

Month

Hero MotoCorp

3151.45

+5%

+8.1%

Bajaj Auto

2985.40

+0.9%

+3.5%

TVS Motor

479.90      

+7.4%

+10.6%

Eicher Motors

2197.65

+3.8%

+0.8%

Mahindra

610.15

+3%

-3.5%

CHINA — TOURISM ATROPHIED

It was very much a matter of waiting for the party to start in China, where markets were shuttered after three sessions of typically thin trading on Wednesday afternoon. Shanghai’s SSE Composite index finished this abbreviated activity dead flat. Thursday marked the start of October and the Chinese began to celebrate their Golden Week autumn holiday period. Traditionally, it involves millions of people criss-crossing the country to visit relatives. But restrictions are in place across many areas to discourage such mass movement, for fear of provoking another Covid resurgence.         

Our BDN Ten index of listed Chinese motorcycle producers almost exactly reflected the tame SSE conclusion, rising by a marginal 0.1% average. Apart from a sizeable increase for Lifan and another chunky retreat for Benelli parent Qianjiang, movements in either direction were minor, in line with the general lack of investor interest.         

Currency: yuan

Price

Week

Month

Qianjiang

24.22

-4.3%

-9.3%

Zongshen

8.02

+1.8%

-11.3%

Sundiro

3.61

-2.4%

-11.7%

CETC Energy    

5.72

+0.2%

-5.1%

Lifan

5.57

+7.1%

+22.4%

Loncin

3.75

-1.8%

-9.4%

Linhai

6.76

N/A

-10.1%

Guangzhou Auto

9.52

-0.9%

-5.9%

CFMoto

132.10

-1.1%

+5%

 

Currency: HK dollar

Price

Week

Month

Jianshe

4.63

+0.4%

+11.8%