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Share prices

08/10/2018

A snapshot of global bike and ATV industry share performance at the trading week closure on Friday 5 October 2018. BDN financial editor Roger Willis reports.

The only glimmer of positivity anywhere during the past week was Chinese — and completely accidental. Shanghai’s SSE Composite index remained absolutely static because China’s National Day occurred on 1 October, the celebration of which presumably induced a truly monumental collective hangover. As a result, stock exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen were shuttered for the entire week and no trading whatsoever took place.

No such luck for India, where a ruinous depreciation run on the rupee was unabated, at one point falling to a fresh all-time low of 74.2 to the US dollar. Large Indian companies have now begun to collapse under the weight of unserviceable foreign debt. Highest-profile victim over the past few days was giant leasing and financial services provider IL&FS. Saddled with borrowings of more than $12bn, it has been abruptly nationalised by government edict, in an attempt to fend off the risk of a domino effect.

Needless to say, indigenous equities investors are bricking themselves. Both leading Indian stock indices took yet another weekly caning. The Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex 30 fell respectively by 5.7% and 5.3%. The shares of leading bike producers plummeted on a par with or far worse than that.

Although acclaimed on the world stage for new twin-cylinder models just unveiled in California, Royal Enfield parent Eicher suffered a horrendous 12.4% reversal. Mahindra, on the cusp of a relaunch for the BSA marque and simultaneously displaying the first motorcycles made by its Peugeot scooter subsidiary in Europe for many years, sank by 10.6%. BMW Motorrad affiliate TVS was 10% down. India’s highest-volume homespun PTW manufacturers, Hero and Bajaj, posted respective 6.6% and 5.4% losses.

There were a variety of negative influences elsewhere. A global bond market sell-off dragged down stocks in parallel across many jurisdictions and seriously below-forecast September employment growth data in the US rattled some analysts. Wall Street’s S&P 500 index ended 1.4% lower and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 0.6% down. Harley-Davidson and Polaris suffered more, respectively losing 3% and 3.3%.

Concerns about the bond sell-off impacted Europe, principally in countries like Italy with clunky sovereign funding positions. Milan’s MIB index was on its back foot to the tune of 2.4% and Italian PTW listings went along for the ride. Piaggio retreated by 2% while Energica copped a cruel 10.6% plunge.

Further north, indices reflected other issues in addition. The pan-eurozone Eurofirst 300 declined by 1.7% and Frankfurt’s Xetra DAX suffered a 1.3% drop. In both cases, automotive stocks were partially to blame. Continental car sales figures (including the UK) had taken a terrific hammering in September, owing to the implementation of a new “worldwide light-vehicle test procedure” (WLTP) for emissions which manufacturers had struggled to meet. In particular, deliveries to customers by VW’s Audi subsidiary had slumped by 55.5%. That knocked 1.4% off VW but barely touched the minuscule free float of Audi shares not in VW hands. Precisely 11 of them, priced at a plumptious €786 each (£690) changed hands on Friday. Observant followers of this guide will note we have now included Audi’s fairly moribund Frankfurt listing on the basis that it, rather than VW Group, is titular owner of Ducati. BMW escaped dead flat week-on-week, though. And KTM wasn’t in the loop at all, blithely adding 2%.

Finally, the bond sell-off hit overall Japanese sentiment too, sucking 1.6% of goodness out of Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index. Among biker stocks there, exposure to Indian currency translation woes was a bigger factor. Honda, which is India’s largest non-native motorcycle and scooter manufacturer, fell by 3.3%. Yamaha also has a wholly-owned Indian bike subsidiary and was 2% down. Suzuki was on the receiving end of a second week’s severe punishment, given it is the premier car manufacturer in India and has a bike plant there as well. After losing 8.4% in the previous week, this time it dropped by 4.7%.               

Price (P) Daily change (C) 52-week range (R) One-year investment return (Y)  

USA (US dollar)

Harley-Davidson    P 43.96  C +0.71%  R 56.50 - 39.34  Y -1.76%
Polaris    P 97.62  C -2.48%  R 137.66 - 96.67  Y -4.16%
Textron    P 71.05  C -0.77%  R 72.87 - 51.07  Y +28.21%
Curtiss    P 0.55  C N/A  R 1.50 - 0.20  Y N/A

Notes: Polaris makes Indian bikes, ATVs, snowmobiles, quadricycles and EVs. Textron produces own-brand ATVs. US Highland makes off-road bikes. Curtiss Motorcycles, formerly Confederate Motors, makes limited-edition cruisers.

CANADA (Canadian dollar)

BRP    P 57.02  C -3.13%  R 74.78 - 38.94  Y +40.21%

Notes: Bombardier Recreational Products makes Can-Am ATVs and Spyder road trikes, Ski-Doo snowmobiles, Sea-Doo PWC and Rotax proprietary engines.

TAIWAN (Taiwanese dollar)

Sanyang    P 20.50  C N/A  R 23.65 - 20.00  Y -1.18%

Notes: Sanyang Motor (SYM) is the leading Taiwanese bike manufacturer.

VIETNAM (Hong Kong dollar)

VMEPH    0.36  C N/A  R 0.48 - 0.36  Y -22.34%

Notes: Vietnam Manufacturing & Export Processing Holdings, a JV partner of SYM, is the third-largest Vietnamese bike manufacturer.

INDONESIA (rupiah)

Astra    P 6950  C -0.93%  R 8750 - 6100  Y -10.24%
Indomobil    P 1870  C +2.19%  R 4780 - 815  Y +119.16%

Notes: Astra International is a Honda JV partner. Its controlling shareholder is British conglomerate Jardine Matheson. Indomobil Sukses Internasional is a Suzuki JV partner.

EUROPE (euro)

BMW    P 77.55  C -0.89%  R 97.50 - 76.50  Y -8.67%
VW    P 147.20  C -2.13%  R 191.80 - 132.40  Y +1.88%
Audi    P 786.00  C -0.25%  R 852.00 - 680.00  Y +13.19%
KTM    P 68.60  C +2.08%  R 70.00 - 53.80  Y +27.69%
Piaggio    P 1.93  C -2.23%  R 2.86 - 1.84  Y -23.91%
Energica    P 3.70  C +0.54%  R 5.92 - 2.71  Y +23.33%

Notes:  Volkswagen Group controls its Audi subsidiary through a dominant majority shareholding and the latter technically owns Ducati. Energica Motor is an Italian manufacturer of electric superbikes

PAKISTAN (Pakistani rupee)

Atlas Honda    P 406.55  C -3.2%  R 640.00 - 406.55  Y -20.12%
Pak Suzuki    P 282.35  C -4.97%  R 578.24 - 252.00  Y -38.95%

Notes: Atlas Honda and Pak Suzuki are JV assembly partners.

INDIA (rupee)

Hero    P 2740.75  C -0.82%  R 3895.00 - 2692.00  Y -24%
Bajaj    P 2543.05  C -4.29%  R 3472.60 - 2520.00  Y -17.41%
TVS    P 503.95  C -4.45%  R 794.90 - 490.00  Y -23.26%  
Eicher    P 21,190.45  C -3.27%  R 32,766.60 - 20,001.15  Y -32.54%
Mahindra    P 769.55  C -3.16%  R 993.00 - 648.60  Y +19.09%  
Maharashtra    P 2339.50  C -4.01%  R 3399.40 - 2103.55  Y -14.91%
Scooters India    P 34.90  C +4.02%  R 79.70 - 32.25  Y -16.71%

Notes: Hero MotoCorp is a former Honda JV partner. Bajaj has a major shareholding in KTM and ties with it and Kawasaki. TVS is a former Suzuki JV partner and BMW Motorrad contractor. Eicher makes the Royal Enfield brand. Mahindra & Mahindra has an own-brand bike range, a majority stake in French scooter brand Peugeot and owns formerly British BSA and Czech Jawa brand rights. Maharashtra Scooters assembles CKD scooter kits manufactured by Bajaj. Scooters India makes Vikram three-wheeled taxis and light trucks.

JAPAN (yen)

Honda    P 3326  C -0.6%  R 4151 - 3107  Y +1.15%
Yamaha    P 3120  C -0.64%  R 3935 - 2676  Y -2.18%
Suzuki    P 6200  C -2.96%  R 7680 - 5444  Y +7.1%
Kawasaki    P 3260  C -1.06%  R 4620 - 2890  Y -12.97%

CHINA (yuan)

Qianjiang    P 9.18  C N/A  R 23.99 - 8.44  Y -47.15%
Zongshen    P 4.90  C N/A  R 7.78 - 4.46  Y -33.83%   
Sundiro    P 3.26  C N/A  R 7.42 - 3.05  Y -55.03%
Jialing    P 4.90  C N/A  R 6.75 - 4.23  Y -23.32%
Lifan    P 4.64  C N/A  R 9.38 - 4.50  Y -47.81%
Loncin    P 4.93  C N/A  R 8.38 - 4.75  Y -35.81%
Linhai    P 6.58  C N/A  R 12.44 - 5.96  Y -44.24%
GAG    P 11.05  C N/A  R 21.44 - 10.00  Y -40.47%
CFMoto    P 16.46  C N/A  R 37.70 - 15.18  Y -52.47%

CHINA (Hong Kong dollar)

Jianshe    P 8.00  C N/A  R 10.95 - 5.30  Y -25.65%

Notes: Qianjiang owns Keeway and Benelli. Zongshen makes own-brand bikes and proprietary engines, and has JV partnerships with Piaggio, (scooters), and Harley-Davidson (parts). Sundiro is a Honda JV partner. Jialing makes own-brand bikes using Honda licensed technology. Lifan makes own-brand bikes and distributes MV Agusta in China. Loncin is a Kawasaki JV partner and OEM engine contractor to BMW Motorrad. Linhai and Jianshe are Yamaha JV partners. Guangzhou Automobile Group (GAG) is the parent of Honda JV partner and own-brand bike manufacturer Wuyang. CFMoto makes bikes and ATVs, exporting to the UK under the WK Bikes brand.

MALAYSIA (ringgit)

Oriental Holdings    P 6.22  C +0.48%  R 6.53 - 5.87  Y +0.82%
Hong Leong    P 10.74  C N/A  R 12.30 - 9.18  Y +16.77%

Notes: Oriental Holdings is a Honda JV partner. Hong Leong Industries is a Yamaha JV partner.

SOUTH KOREA (won)

KR    P 603  C -0.82%  R 777 - 475.5  Y -22.24%
Daelim    P 87,800  C +0.92%  R 93,300 - 70,000  Y +10.98%

Notes: KR Motors makes Hyosung bikes and ATVs. Daelim Industrial retains a controlling 59% stake in Daelim Motor, the largest bike manufacturer in Korea. (The remainder is British, owned by Standard Chartered Bank.)