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A snapshot of global bike and ATV industry share performance at the trading week closure on Friday 8 February 2019. BDN financial editor Roger Willis reports.

Unease among analysts about markets rallying in the New Year after last autumn’s torrid losses has been justified in the past week, as fear replaced investor greed and recovery began to fizzle out abruptly.

In New York, realisation that President Trump is about to initiate a second US government funding shutdown, to hopefully force Congress to finance his Mexican border wall, was one of the negative influences. The first shutdown cost the US economy billions of dollars and a repeat is likely to be even more deleterious.

The other threatening factor was an announcement from Trump that he won’t meet Chinese President Xi Jinping before the 1 March expiry date of a US-China trade warfare truce, after which American tariffs on a huge array of Chinese imports are due to increase from 10% to 25%.

And on our side of the Atlantic, the EU slashed its growth forecasts on the back of collateral damage suffered by European exports to China from Trump’s economic combat with the Chinese, as well as the imminent collapse of a trade ceasefire between the US and EU.

On Wall Street, confidence dissolved on Thursday morning after three positive sessions. Both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices plunged, to close almost dead flat by end of play on Friday. The two leading US motorcycle-related stocks were punished more severely. Harley-Davidson fell by 3.8% and Polaris lost 4.1%.

In Europe, angst was most clearly expressed by a 2.4% decline for Frankfurt’s Xetra DAX index, following profit warnings from German automotive giants attributed mainly to their deteriorating sales in China. (British-based Jaguar Land Rover has just flagged up a stonking £3.4bn loss in the final three months of 2018, also owing primarily to Chinese troubles.) BMW and Volkswagen shares sank in unison by 5.7%. KTM ameliorated recent grievous losses with a modest 0.4% rise.

Italy is already incurring an official recession due to its own swath of economic inadequacies. And Milan’s MIB index continued to retreat, this week 1.4% down. Piaggio ran out of recent trend-bucking luck, falling sharply by 4.9%. Energica’s slide was uninterrupted, the latest portion 1.6% in arrears.

Japanese gloom about the US-China situation was unabated. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index was 2.4% lower. But among indigenous bike producers, Kawasaki maintained trend-bucking positivity for a second successive week, 1.6% up. The rest were hammered. Honda and Suzuki respectively dived by 9.8% and 5.2%. Yamaha was 3.1% down.

The only people incapable of expressing any concerns about global grievances or anything else were the Chinese — because they all took the whole week off to celebrate China’s Lunar New Year. Apparently 2019 is Year of the Pig, which may allude to their perception of President Trump. Stock exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen remained shuttered for the duration, as did the Taipei exchange in Taiwan. So the shares of 10 listed mainland motorcycle manufacturers and Taiwanese SYM languished in limbo.

However, Hong Kong opened for business on Monday and Friday, allowing just three days of partying for work-shy brokers. Its Hang Seng index, which fell by 0.2% across distinctly muted activity, provided a vague indicator. Not that the sole biker stock listed in Hong Kong — SYM’s Vietnamese JV partner VMEPH — made the slightest contribution. VMEPH shares opened on Monday morning and closed on Friday evening at exactly the same price.

India was away with the fairies. Focusing on a recent deluge of funny money dispensed by the Modi government for vote-rigging purposes, some Indian investors responded with optimism rather than any moral outrage, placing casino-style bets on which consumer goods purveyors were likely to cash in. Such sentiment wasn’t entirely generalised, though. Overall activity on Dalal Street in Mumbai, home to the competing Bombay and National stock exchanges, was circumspect. Their respective indices, the BSE Sensex 30 and Nifty 50, moved upwards by only 0.6% and 0.7%. As for bike producers, Bajaj boasted the most attention, stacking on 9.6%. Eicher bounced back to add 6% and market leader Hero was 4.7% up. But TVS fell by 4.6% and Mahindra was a more marginal 0.9% down.            

Price (P) Daily change (C) 52-week range (R) One-year investment return (Y)  

USA (US dollar)

Harley-Davidson    P 35.25  C -0.98%  R 48.90 - 31.36  Y -23.64%
Polaris    P 82.94  C -1.11%  R 131.25 - 70.27  Y -24.22%
Textron    P 52.58  C -0.92%  R 72.87 - 43.27  Y -6.5%
Curtiss    P 0.25  C +2.04%  R 1.50 - 0.15  Y -49.49%

Notes: Polaris makes Indian bikes, ATVs, snowmobiles, quadricycles and EVs. Textron produces own-brand ATVs. Curtiss Motorcycles, formerly Confederate Motors, makes limited-edition cruisers.

CANADA (Canadian dollar)

BRP    P 36.28  C -1.06%  R 74.78 - 32.34  Y -28.27%

Notes: Bombardier Recreational Products makes Can-Am ATVs and road trikes, Ski-Doo snowmobiles, Sea-Doo PWC and Rotax proprietary engines.

TAIWAN (Taiwanese dollar)

Sanyang    P 20.10  C +0.75%  R 23.65 - 19.35  Y N/A

Notes: Sanyang Motor (SYM) is the leading Taiwanese bike manufacturer.

VIETNAM (Hong Kong dollar)

VMEPH    0.33  C -1.52%  R 0.47 - 0.28  Y -22.62%

Notes: Vietnam Manufacturing & Export Processing Holdings, a JV partner of SYM, is the third-largest Vietnamese bike manufacturer.

INDONESIA (rupiah)

Astra    P 8150  C -0.61%  R 8775 - 6100  Y -0.09%
Indomobil    P 3250  C -1.52%  R 4780 - 825  Y +287.69%

Notes: Astra International is a Honda JV partner. Its controlling shareholder is British conglomerate Jardine Matheson. Indomobil Sukses Internasional is a Suzuki JV partner.

EUROPE (euro)

BMW    P 69.78  C -2.27%  R 93.87 - 68.79  Y -16.6%
VW    P 144.00  C -2.17%  R 178.00 - 128.60  Y -12.47%
KTM    P 54.00  C -1.1%  R 70.00 - 52.20  Y -12.46%
Piaggio    P 1.93  C +1.74%  R 2.44 - 1.69  Y -12.91%
Energica    P 2.50  C -1.57%  R 5.92 - 2.15  Y -23.31%

Notes:  Volkswagen Group owns Ducati. Energica Motor is an Italian manufacturer of electric superbikes

PAKISTAN (Pakistani rupee)

Atlas Honda    P 386.00  C -2.28%  R 640.00 - 361.00  Y -29.82%
Pak Suzuki    P 323.50  C +0.7%  R 534.00 - 170.00  Y -36.94%

Notes: Atlas Honda and Pak Suzuki are JV assembly partners.

INDIA (rupee)

Hero    P 2938.85  C -0.01%  R 3862.00 - 2561.00  Y -15.74%
Bajaj    P 2851.40  C -0.08%  R 3213.95 - 2420.00  Y -7.88%
TVS    P 492.90  C -2.35%  R 693.40 - 469.15  Y -25.58%  
Eicher    P 20,847.40  C -4.82%  R 32,236.70 - 18,780.00  Y -25.77%
Mahindra    P 682.10  C -2.68%  R 993.00 - 661.60  Y -8.58%  
Maharashtra    P 3298.65  C +0.57%  R 3649.00 - 2010.00  Y +29.8%
Scooters India    P 31.10  C -4.89%  R 66.15 - 29.70  Y -42.09%

Notes: Hero MotoCorp is India’s largest indigenous bike manufacturer. Bajaj has a major shareholding in KTM and ties with it and Kawasaki. TVS is a former Suzuki JV partner and BMW Motorrad contractor. Eicher makes the Royal Enfield brand. Mahindra & Mahindra has an own-brand bike range, a majority stake in French scooter brand Peugeot and owns formerly British BSA and Czech Jawa brand rights. Maharashtra Scooters assembles CKD scooter kits manufactured by Bajaj. Scooters India makes Vikram three-wheeled taxis and light trucks.

JAPAN (yen)

Honda    P 2926.5  C -2.51%  R 3992 - 2733  Y -21.84%
Yamaha    P 2247  C -3.97%  R 3570 - 1971  Y -33.94%
Suzuki    P 5438  C +1.63%  R 7680 - 5056  Y -9.75%
Kawasaki    P 2700  C -4.53%  R 4250 - 2198  Y -34.68%

CHINA (yuan)

Qianjiang    P 8.67  C +1.52%  R 19.61 - 7.50  Y N/A
Zongshen    P 5.09  C +1.8%  R 6.19 - 4.08  Y N/A   
Sundiro    P 2.72  C +7.09%  R 6.37 - 2.41  Y N/A
Jialing    P 4.40  C +2.8%  R 6.75 - 3.52  Y N/A
Lifan    P 3.85  C +2.94%  R 6.79 - 3.65  Y N/A
Loncin    P 4.57  C +2.93%  R 7.15 - 3.61  Y N/A
Linhai    P 5.61  C +2.19%  R 11.19 - 4.90  Y N/A
GAG    P 10.37  C +0.58%  R 17.26 - 10.00  Y N/A
CFMoto    P 17.97  C +1.53%  R 28.56 - 14.01  Y N/A

CHINA (Hong Kong dollar)

Jianshe    P 6.16  C +0.33%  R 8.96 - 5.30  Y N/A

Notes: Qianjiang owns Keeway and Benelli. Zongshen makes own-brand bikes and proprietary engines, and has JV partnerships with Piaggio, (scooters), and Harley-Davidson (parts). Sundiro is a Honda JV partner. Jialing makes own-brand bikes using Honda licensed technology. Lifan makes own-brand bikes and distributes MV Agusta in China. Loncin is a Kawasaki JV partner and OEM engine contractor to BMW Motorrad. Linhai and Jianshe are Yamaha JV partners. Guangzhou Automobile Group (GAG) is the parent of Honda JV partner and own-brand bike manufacturer Wuyang. CFMoto makes bikes and ATVs, exporting to the UK under the WK Bikes brand.

MALAYSIA (ringgit)

Oriental Holdings    P 6.47  C +0.31%  R 6.56 - 5.82  Y +6.41%
Hong Leong    P 9.20  C N/A  R 12.30 - 8.42  Y -4.89%

Notes: Oriental Holdings is a Honda JV partner. Hong Leong Industries is a Yamaha JV partner.


KR    P 533  C +0.19%  R 760 - 478  Y -9.51%
Daelim    P 100,000  C -1.96%  R 108,000 - 70,000  Y +35.5%

Notes: KR Motors makes Hyosung bikes and ATVs. Daelim Industrial retains a controlling 59% stake in Daelim Motor, the largest bike manufacturer in Korea. (The remainder is British, owned by Standard Chartered Bank.)