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1 JULY: WEEKLY MOTORCYCLE INDUSTRY SHARE PRICES

A snapshot of global bike and ATV industry share performance at the trading week closure on Friday 1 July 2016.

A tumultuous week ensued after the UK’s Brexit referendum result with shocks ricocheting through global markets. As they opened on Monday, the previous Friday’s panic share sell-off initially continued. Indices plunged again everywhere with all eyes on London. The FTSE 100 dropped by 2.6% as the blue-chip multinationals it represents felt more pain. And the FTSE 250, generally featuring British mid-caps and a more reliable indicator of UK economic health, sank by another 7%.

Then firm signals from central banks of supportive liquidity intervention calmed things down and a strong dose of common sense set in. A remarkable turnaround spread worldwide. New York’s S&P 500 finished 3.2% up. In London, the FTSE 100 bounced back by 6.9%, overwhelming all of its post-Brexit losses. The Eurofirst 300 posted a 3.5% weekly climb and Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 topped that with 4.9%.

However, other factors didn’t improve. Sterling still languished close to a 30-year low against the US dollar and continued its fall versus the euro. And all three remained sharply negative compared with the safe-haven yen. Besides currencies, government bonds also became safe havens for many institutional investors, pushing yields so low that they weren’t worth spit. And reflecting our local angst, the FTSE 250 assiduously resisted any full recovery trend, finishing with only a 1.2% rise week-on-week, leaving it still much lower than the Brexit announcement watershed.

Motorcycle-related share prices didn’t necessarily enjoy the return of confidence. In Europe, the three big German automotives were subdued — BMW and VW falling further while Daimler was flat. Piaggio also continued to slide downhill. Japanese bike makers, despite the prospect of central bank action to counter the punitively negative foreign exchange position they face, weren’t happy either. Honda and Suzuki achieved very marginal gains while Yamaha and Kawasaki compounded the previous week’s decline with additional retreats.

US performance was far more in line with overall market sentiment. Polaris surged upwards by 7.3%. And although Harley-Davidson had fallen further on Monday, by Thursday it was 4% up. Friday was a different story, entirely unrelated to the rollercoaster Brexit narrative. Harley stock suddenly lunged into the stratosphere with a one-day 20% boost. The reason? Credible rumours of a private equity takeover bid had reached Wall Street ears.

As for emerging markets, they’d already shrugged off developed-world woes. India’s BSE Sensex 30 was 2.8% up and every major indigenous motorcycle producer added value except Bajaj. In China, the Shanghai Composite rose by 2.7% and there were no exceptions at all among the serried rank of rising bike share prices.     

 

Price (P) Daily change (C) 52-week range (R) One-year investment return (Y) 

USA (US dollar)

Harley-Davidson    P 54.25  C +19.76%  R 60.67 – 36.36  Y -0.03%

Polaris    P 86.34  C +5.6%  R 156.35 – 67.80  Y -40.86%

Arctic Cat    P 17.72  C +4.24%  R 34.44 – 8.90  Y -46.43%

US Highland    P 0.01  C -1.85%  R 0.70 – 0.01  Y N/A

Confederate    P 0.05  C -16.67%  R 0.33 – 0.05  Y N/A

Notes: Polaris makes Victory and Indian bikes, ATVs, snowmobiles, quadricycles and EVs. Arctic Cat makes ATVs and snowmobiles. US Highland makes off-road bikes. Confederate Motors makes Combat Fighter cruisers.

 

CANADA (Canadian dollar)

BRP    P 20.67  C +3.77%  R 29.75 – 13.76  Y -28.55%

Notes: Bombardier Recreational Products makes Can-Am ATVs, Spyder road trikes, Ski-Doo snowmobiles, Sea-Doo PWCs and Rotax proprietary engines.

 

TAIWAN (Taiwanese dollar)

Sanyang    P 20.85  C +0.72%  R 25.05 – 19.15  Y -14.55%

Notes: Sanyang Motor (SYM) is the leading Taiwanese bike manufacturer.

 

VIETNAM (Hong Kong dollar)

VMEPH    P 0.42  C -2.33%  R 0.62 – 0.36  Y -26.32%

Notes: Vietnam Manufacturing & Export Processing Holdings, a JV partner of SYM, is the third-largest Vietnamese bike manufacturer.

 

INDONESIA (rupiah)

Astra    P 7400  C N/A  R 7850 – 4975  Y +8.14%

Indomobil    P 1465  C -5.48%  R 3800 – 1250  Y -60.29%

Notes: Astra International is a Honda JV partner. Its controlling shareholder is British conglomerate Jardine Matheson. Indomobil Sukses Internasional is a Suzuki JV partner.

 

EUROPE (euro)

BMW    P 67.61  C +2.26%  R 104.85 – 63.50  Y -28.84%

Daimler    P 54.95  C +1.76%  R 86.95 – 51.00  Y -30.62%

VW    P 125.68  C +2.96%  R 216.50 – 95.00 Y -40.33%

Cross    P 3.68  C +3.2%  R 6.00 – 2.24  Y +49.69%

Piaggio    P 1.56  C -1.27%  R 3.15 – 1.46  Y -47.7%

Notes: Daimler’s AMG-Mercedes subsidiary has a 25% stake in MV Agusta. Volkswagen Group owns Ducati. Cross Industries owns KTM.

 

PAKISTAN (Pakistani rupee)

Atlas Honda    P 369.00  C -1.34%  R 414.80 – 320.05  Y N/A

Pak Suzuki    P 383.00  C +2.51%  R 532.00 – 363.01  Y N/A

Notes: Atlas Honda and Pak Suzuki are JV assembly partners.

 

INDIA (rupee)

Hero    P 3186.05  C +0.25%  R 3226.00 – 2257.20  Y +25.42%

Bajaj    P 2671.25  C -0.7%  R 2719.95 – 2133.15  Y +7.61%

TVS    P 311.60  C +0.68%  R 340.90 – 201.00  Y +22.01% 

Eicher    P 19,155.10  C -0.35%  R 21,620.00 – 14,800.00  Y -5.01%

Mahindra    P 1463.10  C +2.32%  R 1474.90 – 1091.25  Y +12.51%

Maharashtra    P 1327.95  C -1.05%  R 1619.00 – 936.60  Y +21.35%

Scooters India    P 25.75  C -4.45%  R 35.05 – 22.00  Y +6.63%

Notes: Hero MotoCorp is an own-brand former Honda JV partner. Bajaj has a major shareholding in KTM and ties with it and Kawasaki. TVS is a former Suzuki JV partner and now BMW Motorrad contractor. Eicher makes the Royal Enfield brand. Mahindra & Mahindra has an own-brand bike range and a majority stake in French scooter brand Peugeot. Maharashtra Scooters assembles CKD scooter kits manufactured by Bajaj. Scooters India makes Vikram three-wheeled taxis and light trucks. The Indian government has a majority stake.

 

JAPAN (yen)

Honda    P 2567  C -0.21%  R 4499 – 2459  Y -34.68%

Yamaha    P 1511  C -1.95%  R 3045 – 1467  Y -42.95%

Suzuki    P 2739.5  C -0.51%  R 4780.5 – 2450  Y -32.22%

Kawasaki    P 286  C +0.35%  R 575 – 257  Y -47.2%

 

CHINA (yuan)

Qianjiang    P 12.77  C -5.02%  R 15.62 – 5.55  Y +60.23%

Zongshen    P 10.82  C -0.92%  R 18.20 – 8.08  Y -37.28%  

Sundiro    P 5.71  C N/A  R 12.69 – 4.89  Y N/A [Trading halted]

Jialing    P 7.38  C N/A  R 16.34 – 5.27  Y N/A [Trading halted]

Lifan    P 11.57  C -1.7%  R 19.47 – 8.05  Y -2.35%

Loncin    P 20.10  C -0.59%  R 31.20 – 13.00  Y -19.75%

Linhai    P 11.60  C -1.44%  R 14.71 – 8.41  Y -18.25%

GAG    P 23.55  C +0.26%  R 25.55 – 11.03  Y +59.68%

 

CHINA (Hong Kong dollar)

Jianshe    P 13.56  C +0.44%  R 19.20 – 7.72  Y +17.10%

Notes: Qianjiang owns Keeway and formerly Italian Benelli. Zongshen makes own-brand bikes and proprietary engines, and has JV partnerships with Piaggio, (scooters), and Harley-Davidson (parts). Sundiro is a Honda JV partner. Jialing makes own-brand bikes using Honda licensed technology. Lifan makes own-brand bikes and distributes MV Agusta in China. Loncin is a Kawasaki JV partner and OEM engine contractor to BMW Motorrad. Linhai and Jianshe are Yamaha JV partners. Guangzhou Automobile Group (GAG) is the parent of Honda JV partner and own-brand bike manufacturer Wuyang.

 

MALAYSIA (ringgit)

Oriental Holdings    P 6.63  C N/A  R 7.33 – 6.46  Y -6.87%

Hong Leong    P 8.32  C -0.12%  R 8.50 – 4.38  Y +97.28%

Notes: Oriental Holdings is a Honda JV partner. Hong Leong Industries is a Yamaha JV partner.

 

SOUTH KOREA (won)

KR    P 1145  C +0.44%  R 1770 – 905  Y +4.57%

Daelim    P 77,400  C +1.84%  R 98,000 – 59,600  Y -8.32%

Notes: KR Motors makes Hyosung bikes and ATVs. Daelim Industrial retains a controlling 59% stake in Daelim Motor, the largest bike manufacturer in Korea. (The remainder is British, owned by Standard Chartered Bank.)

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