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12 FEBRUARY: WEEKLY MOTORCYCLE INDUSTRY SHARE PRICES

A snapshot of global bike and ATV industry share performance at the trading week closure on Friday 12 February 2016.

A tumultuous bear run over four days wiped up to a trillion quid off stocks worldwide last week, partially redeemed when traders calmed down a bit and most markets rallied on Friday. Economic anxieties were the root cause although analysts said there was an evident tendency for investors to price in an imminent recession without solid data to support such a contention.

New York’s S&P 500 index hit a 22-month low at close of play on Thursday but recovered to finish the week only 1.3% down. Financial services and energy groups benefited most from that bounce. Manufacturers were generally less fortunate. Harley-Davidson shares fell by 5.5% and Polaris was 3.5% down.

A similar knee-jerk phenomenon swept through Europe. The Eurozone’s Eurofirst 300 dropped by 4% and all three big German automotives suffered. Inevitably, the worst affected was VW, which had also announced a delay in publication of its 2015 financial results because of difficulties over factoring in allowances for the diesel emissions scandal. As a result, the Ducati parent lost 6.2% week-on-week.

Extreme developed-world punishment was reserved for the Japanese. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 plummeted by 11.1%. Besides reaction to US and European woes, an additional driver was the sharply strengthening yen — surging to 112 against the US dollar. That weighed heavily on exporters, inevitably including all four indigenous bike producers. Yamaha got the biggest kicking, as its shares slumped by 23.8%. Suzuki was next in line, 17.1% down. Kawasaki took a 14.4% drop and Honda escaped with a comparitively less painful 12.2% fall.

The sole big emerging market to see any punitive action was India. There, the BSE Sensex 30 sank by 6.6% and negativity pervaded every bike stock apart from Royal Enfield parent Eicher, which managed a very modest improvement.

Nothing bad whatsoever happened in China, apart from alcohol-induced oblivion. Mainland exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen were shut for the entire week so brokers and investors could go on the lash to celebrate the Chinese Lunar New Year.

                                

Price (P) Daily change (C) 52-week range (R) One-year investment return (Y) 

 

USA (US dollar)

Harley-Davidson    P 38.72  C +1.57%  R 65.20 – 36.36  Y -37.75%

Polaris    P 79.80  C +3.23%  R 158.24 – 67.80  Y -48.02%

Arctic Cat    P 14.26  C +5.24%  R 39.72 – 8.90  Y -62.78%

US Highland    P 0.19  C +6.11%  R 1.05 – 0.11  Y N/A

Viper    P 0.0008  C N/A  R N/A  Y N/A 

Confederate    P 0.15  C N/A  R 0.33 – 0.08  Y N/A

Notes: Polaris makes Victory and Indian bikes, ATVs, snowmobiles, quadricycles and EVs. Arctic Cat makes ATVs and snowmobiles. US Highland makes off-road bikes. Viper Powersports makes the Diamondback Super Cruiser. Confederate Motors makes Combat Fighter cruisers.

 

CANADA (Canadian dollar)

BRP    P 14.67  C +3.38%  R 29.80 – 13.76  Y -37.65%

Notes: Bombardier Recreational Products makes Can-Am ATVs, Spyder road trikes, Ski-Doo snowmobiles, Sea-Doo PWCs and Rotax proprietary engines.

 

TAIWAN (Taiwanese dollar)

Sanyang    P 21.15  C N/A  R 28.75 – 19.15  Y N/A

Notes: Sanyang Motor (SYM) is the leading Taiwanese bike manufacturer.

 

VIETNAM (Hong Kong dollar)

VMEPH    P 0.39  C N/A  R 0.85 – 0.38  Y -16.13%

Notes: Vietnam Manufacturing & Export Processing Holdings, a JV partner of SYM, is the third-largest Vietnamese bike manufacturer.

 

INDONESIA (rupiah)

Astra    P 6825  C -4.21%  R 8575 – 4975  Y -11.25%

Indomobil    P 2050  C N/A  R 4200 – 1860  Y -49.86%

Notes: Astra International is a Honda JV partner. Its controlling shareholder is British conglomerate Jardine Matheson. Indomobil Sukses Internasional is a Suzuki JV partner.

 

EUROPE (euro)

BMW    P 70.54  C +4.15%  R 123.75 – 65.99  Y -32.62%

Daimler    P 60.95  C +2.45%  R 96.07 – 57.01  Y -24.5%

VW    P 110.65  C +0.63%  R 254.99 – 95.00  Y -45.95%

KTM    P 129.90  C N/A  R 137.00 – 99.69  Y -3.95%

Piaggio    P 1.79  C +2.05%  R 3.18 – 1.56  Y -34.01%

Notes: Daimler’s AMG-Mercedes subsidiary has a 25% stake in MV Agusta. Volkswagen Group owns Ducati.

 

PAKISTAN (Pakistani rupee)

Atlas Honda    P 372.00  C -2.26%  R 414.80 – 311.37  Y N/A

Pak Suzuki    P 468.52  C -5%  R 532.00 – 330.00  Y N/A

Notes: Atlas Honda and Pak Suzuki are JV assembly partners.

 

INDIA (rupee)

Hero    P 2489.25  C -0.31%  R 2869.10 – 2251.30  Y -11.78%

Bajaj    P 2304.40  C -1.09%  R 2656.00 – 1912.50  Y +3.96%

TVS    P 276.20  C -1.02%  R 310.95 – 201.00  Y -9.53% 

Eicher    P 18,384.75  C +1.47%  R 21,620.00 – 13,900.10  Y +18.31%

Mahindra    P 1165.25  C +3.43%  R 1442.05 – 1091.25  Y -1.37%

Maharashtra    P 1109.40  C -1.33%  R 1619.00 – 785.85  Y +32.43%

Scooters India    P 26.00  C -4.94%  R 35.05 – 21.75  Y -17.46%

Notes: Hero MotoCorp is an own-brand former Honda JV partner. Bajaj has a major shareholding in KTM and ties with it and Kawasaki. TVS is a former Suzuki JV partner and now BMW Motorrad contractor. Eicher makes the Royal Enfield brand. Mahindra & Mahindra has an own-brand bike range and a majority stake in French scooter brand Peugeot. Maharashtra Scooters assembles CKD scooter kits manufactured by Bajaj. Scooters India makes Vikram three-wheeled taxis and light trucks. The Indian government has a majority stake.

 

JAPAN (yen)

Honda    P 2736.5  C -5.51%  R 4499 – 2726  Y -27.89%

Yamaha    P 1601  C -13.18%  R 3245 – 1593  Y -36.96%

Suzuki    P 2671  C -7.53%  R 4780.5 – 2662.5  Y -24.25%

Kawasaki    P 274  C -8.05%  R 647 – 269  Y -48.25%

 

CHINA (yuan)

Qianjiang    P 7.20  C -2.57%  R 17.11 – 5.55  Y N/A

Zongshen    P 9.25  C -1.91%  R 30.15 – 8.42  Y N/A  

Sundiro    P 5.71  C N/A  R 12.69 – 4.84  Y N/A [Trading halted]

Jialing    P 6.08  C -2.41%  R 16.34 – 5.27  Y N/A 

Lifan    P 9.24  C -2.94%  R 27.99 – 8.05  Y N/A

Loncin    P 17.57  C -1.24%  R 39.48 – 13.00  Y N/A

Linhai    P 10.21  C -0.58%  R 14.71 – 8.41  Y N/A

GAG    P 20.37  C +0.79%  R 24.85 – 8.03  Y N/A

 

CHINA (Hong Kong dollar)

Jianshe    P 17.71  C -0.51%  R 19.99 – 6.85  Y N/A

Notes: Qianjiang owns Keeway and formerly Italian Benelli. Zongshen makes own-brand bikes and proprietary engines, and has JV partnerships with Piaggio, (scooters), and Harley-Davidson (parts). Sundiro is a Honda JV partner. Jialing makes own-brand bikes using Honda licensed technology. Lifan makes own-brand bikes and distributes MV Agusta in China. Loncin is a Kawasaki JV partner and OEM engine contractor to BMW Motorrad. Linhai and Jianshe are Yamaha JV partners. Guangzhou Automobile Group (GAG) is the parent of Honda JV partner and own-brand bike manufacturer Wuyang.

 

MALAYSIA (ringgit)

Oriental Holdings    P 6.58  C N/A  R 7.93 – 6.48  Y -3.32%

Hong Leong    P 5.80  C -0.85%  R 6.30 – 4.32  Y +33.95%

Notes: Oriental Holdings is a Honda JV partner. Hong Leong Industries is a Yamaha JV partner.

 

SOUTH KOREA (won)

KR    P 1105  C -1.78%  R 1770 – 905  Y -5.15%

Daelim    P 78,900  C -0.13%  R 98,000 – 54,600  Y +41.65%

Notes: KR Motors makes Hyosung bikes and ATVs. Daelim Industrial retains a controlling 59% stake in Daelim Motor, the largest bike manufacturer in Korea. (The remainder is British, owned by Standard Chartered Bank.)

 

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