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15 APRIL: WEEKLY MOTORCYCLE INDUSTRY SHARE PRICES

A snapshot of global bike and ATV industry share performance at the trading week closure on Friday 15 April 2016.

Gossip can make a big difference on the New York Stock Exchange, as Harley-Davidson has been discovering. Its shares closed with a 13.6% plunge a week ago, as investors fled in the face of adverse analysts’ reports on bike sales estimates in the first quarter.

Then another Wall Street analyst from UBS swerved the other way at the start of this past week, suggesting warm weather in March had considerably boosted Harley’s late-quarter performance. So the price bounced back, rising by nearly 7%. But doubts soon set in and that had declined to a weekly gain of just 4% by last knockings on Friday. The truth, rather than educated guesses, will be available on 19 April when the company publishes Q1 financial results.

As for the US in broader terms, weak economic data and a fresh oil-price reversal attacked earlier advances, leaving the S&P 500 index to finish positive by only 1.66%. Europe was even more optimistic for most of the week but also faded towards the end, leaving the eurozone’s Eurofirst 300 3.54% up. Every bike-related stock followed that improvement except KTM, which flatlined around the exit-offer figure for its imminent stock market delisting.

Japan grew nervous too as the weekend approached. But extremely strong mid-week gains delivered one of Tokyo’s best acts for more than a month as the Nikkei 225 closed with a 6.49% weekly surge. All four indigenous motorcycle manufacturers recovered mightily but had begun to decline again on Friday.

Emerging markets were livelier. Every Indian bike-making stock improved as the Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex 30 rose by 2.92%. Main driver was the prospect of renewed oil-price decline (an advantage to India). China was cheerful as well after data showing reasonable 6.7% GDP growth in the first quarter had been released. Shanghai’s Composite stacked on 3.1% and listed motorcycle makers easily matched that — apart from Honda JV partners Sundiro and Jialing, which are both still stuck in trading suspensions.  

                                          

Price (P) Daily change (C) 52-week range (R) One-year investment return (Y) 

 

USA (US dollar)

Harley-Davidson    P 46.43  C -2.25%  R 61.93 – 36.36  Y -21.29%

Polaris    P 95.67  C +0.42%  R 156.35 – 67.80  Y -31.62%

Arctic Cat    P 16.23  C -0.25%  R 38.80 – 8.90  Y -56.28%

US Highland    P 0.04  C -38.8%  R 1.05 – 0.03  Y N/A

Viper    P 0.0008  C N/A  R N/A  Y N/A 

Confederate    P 0.15  C N/A  R 0.33 – 0.08  Y N/A

Notes: Polaris makes Victory and Indian bikes, ATVs, snowmobiles, quadricycles and EVs. Arctic Cat makes ATVs and snowmobiles. US Highland makes off-road bikes. Viper Powersports makes the Diamondback Super Cruiser. Confederate Motors makes Combat Fighter cruisers.

 

CANADA (Canadian dollar)

BRP    P 19.62  C +0.36%  R 29.80 – 13.76  Y -24.31%

Notes: Bombardier Recreational Products makes Can-Am ATVs, Spyder road trikes, Ski-Doo snowmobiles, Sea-Doo PWCs and Rotax proprietary engines.

 

TAIWAN (Taiwanese dollar)

Sanyang    P 21.00  C -0.94%  R 28.40 – 19.15  Y -23.08%

Notes: Sanyang Motor (SYM) is the leading Taiwanese bike manufacturer.

 

VIETNAM (Hong Kong dollar)

VMEPH    P 0.41  C N/A  R 0.85 – 0.36  Y -18%

Notes: Vietnam Manufacturing & Export Processing Holdings, a JV partner of SYM, is the third-largest Vietnamese bike manufacturer.

 

INDONESIA (rupiah)

Astra    P 7675  C +6.6%  R 8225 – 4975  Y -0.51%

Indomobil    P 1950  C -2.01%  R 4200 – 1860  Y -46.57%

Notes: Astra International is a Honda JV partner. Its controlling shareholder is British conglomerate Jardine Matheson. Indomobil Sukses Internasional is a Suzuki JV partner.

 

EUROPE (euro)

BMW    P 78.26  C -0.7%  R 115.85 – 65.99  Y -27.05%

Daimler    P 62.46  C -2.02%  R 92.70 – 57.01  Y -21.99%

VW    P 124.59  C -2.5%  R 244.00 – 95.00  Y -43.43%

KTM    P 122.50  C -0.04%  R 130.00 – 99.69  Y -3.01%

Piaggio    P 1.83  C -1.72%  R 3.18 – 1.56  Y -30.15%

Notes: Daimler’s AMG-Mercedes subsidiary has a 25% stake in MV Agusta. Volkswagen Group owns Ducati.

 

PAKISTAN (Pakistani rupee)

Atlas Honda    P 390.00  C +1.27%  R 414.80 – 320.05  Y N/A

Pak Suzuki    P 414.50  C +0.6%  R 532.00 – 378.15  Y N/A

Notes: Atlas Honda and Pak Suzuki are JV assembly partners.

 

INDIA (rupee)

Hero    P 3148.05  C +3.17%  R 3172.00 – 2251.30  Y +33.93%

Bajaj    P 2582.50  C +4.99%  R 2656.00 – 1912.50  Y +30.37%

TVS    P 326.75  C +2.49%  R 329.80 – 201.00  Y +35.5% 

Eicher    P 19,896.30  C +1.73%  R 21,620.00 – 13,900.10  Y +30.66%

Mahindra    P 1332.45  C +7.46%  R 1442.05 – 1091.25  Y +9.84%

Maharashtra    P 1263.50  C +2.38%  R 1619.00 – 826.10  Y +47.88%

Scooters India    P 25.35  C +3.26%  R 35.05 – 21.75  Y -20.53%

Notes: Hero MotoCorp is an own-brand former Honda JV partner. Bajaj has a major shareholding in KTM and ties with it and Kawasaki. TVS is a former Suzuki JV partner and now BMW Motorrad contractor. Eicher makes the Royal Enfield brand. Mahindra & Mahindra has an own-brand bike range and a majority stake in French scooter brand Peugeot. Maharashtra Scooters assembles CKD scooter kits manufactured by Bajaj. Scooters India makes Vikram three-wheeled taxis and light trucks. The Indian government has a majority stake.

 

JAPAN (yen)

Honda    P 3035  C -1.01%  R 4499 – 2726  Y -26.46%

Yamaha    P 1854  C -0.91%  R 3245 – 1581  Y -34.81%

Suzuki    P 2996  C -2.06%  R 4780.5 – 2662.5  Y -20.17%

Kawasaki    P 322  C -1.83%  R 647 – 269  Y -45.15%

 

CHINA (yuan)

Qianjiang    P 14.87  C +9.99%  R 17.11 – 5.55  Y +65.59%

Zongshen    P 10.64  C -1.66%  R 30.15 – 8.08  Y -45.87%  

Sundiro    P 5.71  C N/A  R 12.69 – 4.89  Y N/A [Trading halted]

Jialing    P 7.38  C N/A  R 16.34 – 5.27  Y N/A [Trading halted]

Lifan    P 11.95  C +1.62%  R 27.99 – 8.05  Y -13.6%

Loncin    P 18.93  C -1.25%  R 39.48 – 13.00  Y -13.31%

Linhai    P 12.38  C +3.86%  R 14.71 – 8.41  Y -7.4%

GAG    P 21.61  C -0.14%  R 24.85 – 10.30  Y +95.69%

 

CHINA (Hong Kong dollar)

Jianshe    P 17.10  C +0.59%  R 19.99 – 7.72  Y +61.17%

Notes: Qianjiang owns Keeway and formerly Italian Benelli. Zongshen makes own-brand bikes and proprietary engines, and has JV partnerships with Piaggio, (scooters), and Harley-Davidson (parts). Sundiro is a Honda JV partner. Jialing makes own-brand bikes using Honda licensed technology. Lifan makes own-brand bikes and distributes MV Agusta in China. Loncin is a Kawasaki JV partner and OEM engine contractor to BMW Motorrad. Linhai and Jianshe are Yamaha JV partners. Guangzhou Automobile Group (GAG) is the parent of Honda JV partner and own-brand bike manufacturer Wuyang.

 

MALAYSIA (ringgit)

Oriental Holdings    P 7.01  C -0.71%  R 7.93 – 6.48  Y +4.53%

Hong Leong    P 6.70  C -0.59%  R 7.05 – 4.40  Y +50.15%

Notes: Oriental Holdings is a Honda JV partner. Hong Leong Industries is a Yamaha JV partner.

 

SOUTH KOREA (won)

KR    P 1205  C +1.26%  R 1770 – 905  Y -13.93%

Daelim    P 90,500  C -1.52%  R 98,000 – 59,600  Y +16.99%

Notes: KR Motors makes Hyosung bikes and ATVs. Daelim Industrial retains a controlling 59% stake in Daelim Motor, the largest bike manufacturer in Korea. (The remainder is British, owned by Standard Chartered Bank.)

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