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2 DECEMBER: WEEKLY MOTORCYCLE INDUSTRY SHARE PRICEs

A snapshot of global bike and ATV industry share performance at the trading week closure on Friday 2 December 2016.

 

Despite a global boost from Opec oil production cuts and an anticipated crude price hike, caution muted trading in New York over the past week, before and after announcement of US payroll data for November. This eventually revealed 178,000 new jobs had been created in the month and overall unemployment had falled to 4.6%, its lowest level since 2007 before the credit crunch.

However, investors were mulling whether such good news would herald an impending interest rate rise and the S&P 500 index failed to pull back up to the previous week’s record high, closing 1% down. Harley-Davidson was on the comfortable side of that sentiment, losing only 0.5%, although it had fallen back sharply from a mid-week peak on Friday. Polaris did less well, also ending with a similarly abrupt fall, finishing 2.1% in arrears.

Europe was troubled by a forthcoming Italian constitutional reform referendum which could potentially push that nation’s debt-riddled banks over the edge and cause another existential EU crisis. The eurozone’s Eurofirst 300 reflected those concerns, delivering a first decline in four weeks, 0.9% down.

The three big German automotives with motorcycling interests were also afflicted by predictions of declining car sales in the UK and Europe next year. Their share prices all fell in a 3%-4% range across the week. KTM, on the other hand, was basking in the glory of excellent nine-monthly financial results and its stock value climbed by 5.1%. Piaggio did surprisingly well, too, in Italy, adding 3.4%, probably because it’s not a bank.

As principal Far Eastern outpost of the developed world, Japan continued to enjoy export-friendly yen weakness against the dollar, even though it’s tailing off a tad, and Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index was marginally positive by 0.2%. Yamaha beat that impressively with a 2.7% gain. Suzuki and Honda were also on the good side, respectively posting 0.7% and 1% rises. However, Kawasaki lost 1.1%.

Major emerging countries, in contrast, were negative. In India, the BSE Sensex 30 closed 0.3% lower as depression of the India government’s clumsy currency tinkering has yet to lift. But its effect on indigenous motorcycle manufacturers is now erratic, dependent on revised estimates of which ones are losing sales. Eicher’s Royal Enfield brand most obviously isn’t, if a huge weekly share price surge of 12.5% is an indicator. Hero and Bajaj apparently aren’t either, given respective 4.5% and 3.4% improvements. Mahindra dropped by 2.3%, though, and TVS was 0.9% down. China was worse, as Trump jitters grew, Shanghai’s Composite index slid by 0.6% and every listed bike producer took an even bigger caning.                                   

Price (P) Daily change (C) 52-week range (R) One-year investment return (Y) 

 

USA (US dollar)

Harley-Davidson    P 59.71  C -3.8%  R 62.35 – 36.36  Y +29.15%

Polaris    P 87.46  C -3.59%  R 105.99 – 67.80  Y -9.53%

Arctic Cat    P 15.00  C -3.41%  R 22.52 – 8.90  Y -26.83%

US Highland    P 0.001  C +42.86%  R 0.43 – 0.0002  Y N/A

Confederate    P 0.04  C -2.44%  R 0.27 – 0.04  Y N/A

Notes: Polaris makes Victory and Indian bikes, ATVs, snowmobiles, quadricycles and EVs. Arctic Cat makes ATVs and snowmobiles. US Highland makes off-road bikes. Confederate Motors makes limited-edition cruisers.

 

CANADA (Canadian dollar)

BRP    P 24.05  C +0.75%  R 27.30 – 13.76  Y +13.55%

Notes: Bombardier Recreational Products makes Can-Am ATVs and Spyder road trikes, Ski-Doo snowmobiles, Sea-Doo PWCs and Rotax proprietary engines.

 

TAIWAN (Taiwanese dollar)

Sanyang    P 21.35  C +2.64%  R 23.90 – 19.80  Y -3.54%

Notes: Sanyang Motor (SYM) is the leading Taiwanese bike manufacturer.

 

VIETNAM (Hong Kong dollar)

VMEPH    P 0.50  C +1.01%  R 0.54 – 0.36  Y +7.53%

Notes: Vietnam Manufacturing & Export Processing Holdings, a JV partner of SYM, is the third-largest Vietnamese bike manufacturer.

 

INDONESIA (rupiah)

Astra    P 7850  C +1.95%  R 8875 – 5700  Y +25.61%

Indomobil    P 1400  C +0.72%  R 2490 – 1250  Y -34.44%

Notes: Astra International is a Honda JV partner. Its controlling shareholder is British conglomerate Jardine Matheson. Indomobil Sukses Internasional is a Suzuki JV partner.

 

EUROPE (euro)

BMW    P 79.70  C +0.52%  R 104.15 – 52.80  Y -16.15%

Daimler    P 62.34  C +0.43%  R 83.89 – 50.83  Y -17.71%

VW    P 127.20  C -0.18%  R 146.01 – 106.65 Y -7.94%

KTM    P 5.17  C +3.94%  R 5.40 – 3.25  Y +46.67%

Piaggio    P 1.53  C +0.07%  R 2.37 – 1.39  Y -31.02%

Notes: Daimler’s AMG-Mercedes subsidiary has a 25% stake in MV Agusta. Volkswagen Group owns Ducati.

 

PAKISTAN (Pakistani rupee)

Atlas Honda    P 573.00  C -0.03%  R 620.00 – 349.60  Y N/A

Pak Suzuki    P 528.00  C -0.1%  R 595.00 – 363.01  Y N/A

Notes: Atlas Honda and Pak Suzuki are JV assembly partners.

 

INDIA (rupee)

Hero    P 3183.65  C -0.21%  R 3740.00 – 2375.00  Y +24.47%

Bajaj    P 2701.35  C +0.24%  R 3122.00 – 2171.95  Y +11.89%

TVS    P 358.35  C -2.49%  R 420.00 – 256.00  Y +27.77% 

Eicher    P 22,756.20  C +2.5%  R 26,641.30 – 14,800.00  Y +39.27%

Mahindra    P 1145.55  C -1.25%  R 1508.95 – 1091.25  Y -12.18%

Maharashtra    P 1623.45  C +0.8%  R 2170.00 – 1056.00  Y +12.79%

Scooters India    P 36.65  C N/A  R 44.85 – 22.65  Y +20.16%

Notes: Hero MotoCorp is a former Honda JV partner. Bajaj has a major shareholding in KTM and ties with it and Kawasaki. TVS is a former Suzuki JV partner and BMW Motorrad contractor. Eicher makes the Royal Enfield brand. Mahindra & Mahindra has an own-brand bike range, a majority stake in French scooter brand Peugeot and owns formerly British BSA brand rights. Maharashtra Scooters assembles CKD scooter kits manufactured by Bajaj. Scooters India makes Vikram three-wheeled taxis and light trucks.

 

JAPAN (yen)

Honda    P 3367  C -0.85%  R 4105 – 2417  Y -13.14%

Yamaha    P 2721  C +0.33%  R 3005 – 1409  Y -4.49%

Suzuki    P 3790  C -0.86%  R 4069 – 2450  Y +1.6%

Kawasaki    P 369  C -0.27%  R 491 – 257  Y -19.93%

 

CHINA (yuan)

Qianjiang    P 16.97  C -0.93%  R 20.48 – 6.71  Y +43.81%

Zongshen    P 9.87  C -2.08%  R 15.19 – 8.08  Y -30.57%  

Sundiro    P 9.02  C N/A  R 9.94 – 5.61  Y N/A [Trading halted]

Jialing    P 8.67  C -4.62%  R 10.53 – 5.67  Y -11.71%

Lifan    P 9.45  C -2.07%  R 18.28 – 8.05  Y -45.63%

Loncin    P 22.33  C +0.68%  R 25.52 – 14.80  Y -4.28%

Linhai    P 13.12  C -3.74%  R 14.71 – 8.41  Y N/A

GAG    P 24.78  C -2.06%  R 26.27 – 18.10  Y +13.35%

 

CHINA (Hong Kong dollar)

Jianshe    P 14.20  C -1.39%  R 19.20 – 11.25  Y +15.54%

Notes: Qianjiang owns Keeway and formerly Italian Benelli. Zongshen makes own-brand bikes and proprietary engines, and has JV partnerships with Piaggio, (scooters), and Harley-Davidson (parts). Sundiro is a Honda JV partner. Jialing makes own-brand bikes using Honda licensed technology. Lifan makes own-brand bikes and distributes MV Agusta in China. Loncin is a Kawasaki JV partner and OEM engine contractor to BMW Motorrad. Linhai and Jianshe are Yamaha JV partners. Guangzhou Automobile Group (GAG) is the parent of Honda JV partner and own-brand bike manufacturer Wuyang.

 

MALAYSIA (ringgit)

Oriental Holdings    P 6.85  C N/A  R 7.52 – 6.48  Y +0.04%

Hong Leong    P 9.91  C +0.51%  R 10.08 – 5.25  Y +73.23%

Notes: Oriental Holdings is a Honda JV partner. Hong Leong Industries is a Yamaha JV partner.

 

SOUTH KOREA (won)

KR    P 800  C +1.52%  R 1770 – 661  Y -17.7%

Daelim    P 79,300  C +0.63%  R 94,300 – 62,000  Y +13.14%

Notes: KR Motors makes Hyosung bikes and ATVs. Daelim Industrial retains a controlling 59% stake in Daelim Motor, the largest bike manufacturer in Korea. (The remainder is British, owned by Standard Chartered Bank.)

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