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22 JULY: WEEKLY MOTORCYCLE INDUSTRY SHARE PRICES

A snapshot of global bike and ATV industry share performance at the trading week closure on Friday 22 July 2016.

International markets became progressively more subdued during the past week, writes our financial editor Roger Willis. In the developed world, a combination of mixed quarterly corporate results, renewed decline in oil price benchmarks (Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate both plunging back well below 50 bucks) and further negative forex volatility was responsible.

New York’s S&P 500 index added just 0.5%. But industrials unveiling least-worst financial performances benefited remarkably. Although Polaris owned up to a painful drop in key ATV sales, flat overall revenue and withering profits, the figures were actually much better than analysts had predicted. Motorcycle brands Indian and Victory also grew sales substantially in an otherwise declining US domestic heavyweight cruiser market. Investors therefore piled into Polaris stock, pushing it up by 9.6% week-on-week. Even Harley-Davidson, which will shortly reveal potentially even less efficacious half-year numbers, was given an optimistic lift of 2.9%.

On this side of the pond, with Brexit consequences on the back-burner and many commentators laughing their socks off at new UK foreign secretary Boris Johnson’s Damascene conversion, Germany at least was a more cheerful place. All three big Teutonic automotives with biker sideshows enjoyed positive share movements in Frankfurt as the eurozone’s Eurofirst 300 rose by 0.63%. However, KTM parent Cross and Piaggio both posted slight reversals, respectively in Vienna and Milan.

Japanese punters initially resisted reports of manufacturing shrinkage and falling export demand for the fifth month in a row. They were then briefly buoyed by the yen weakening a tad against the dollar. But that didn’t last and early gains shrivelled, leaving Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 only 0.78% up by Friday close. Nevertheless the four indigenous motorcycle producers managed to hang on to minor weekly share-price improvements.

There were contrasting narratives in emerging markets. Upbeat sentiment began to deteriorate in India, where the BSE Sensex 30 was 0.1% down. That didn’t feed through to the bike business entirely, though. Most shares continuing to rise. TVS and Mahindra didn’t. China was a gloomier place, as its government minced around ways to boost the economy. The Shanghai Composite was 1.36% down and consensus share price movement for motorcycle makers was in the same direction.  

                            

Price (P) Daily change (C) 52-week range (R) One-year investment return (Y) 

USA (US dollar)

Harley-Davidson    P 50.12  C -0.1%  R 60.67 – 36.36  Y -10.36%

Polaris    P 96.56  C -0.32%  R 147.82 – 67.80  Y -29.36%

Arctic Cat    P 18.02  C +0.95%  R 30.51 – 8.90  Y -37.2%

US Highland    P 0.01  C N/A  R 0.70 – 0.01  Y -99.26%

Confederate    P 0.05  C -16.67%  R 0.33 – 0.05  Y N/A

Notes: Polaris makes Victory and Indian bikes, ATVs, snowmobiles, quadricycles and EVs. Arctic Cat makes ATVs and snowmobiles. US Highland makes off-road bikes. Confederate Motors makes Combat Fighter cruisers.

 

CANADA (Canadian dollar)

BRP    P 21.25  C -1.57%  R 29.20 – 13.76  Y -23.67%

Notes: Bombardier Recreational Products makes Can-Am ATVs, Spyder road trikes, Ski-Doo snowmobiles, Sea-Doo PWCs and Rotax proprietary engines.

 

TAIWAN (Taiwanese dollar)

Sanyang    P 21.55  C +0.7%  R 24.35 – 19.15  Y -3.15%

Notes: Sanyang Motor (SYM) is the leading Taiwanese bike manufacturer.

 

VIETNAM (Hong Kong dollar)

VMEPH    P 0.44  C -1.14%  R 0.59 – 0.36  Y -22.32%

Notes: Vietnam Manufacturing & Export Processing Holdings, a JV partner of SYM, is the third-largest Vietnamese bike manufacturer.

 

INDONESIA (rupiah)

Astra    P 7350  C -0.34%  R 7850 – 4975  Y +13.87%

Indomobil    P 1460  C -2.01%  R 3800 – 1250  Y -58%

Notes: Astra International is a Honda JV partner. Its controlling shareholder is British conglomerate Jardine Matheson. Indomobil Sukses Internasional is a Suzuki JV partner.

 

EUROPE (euro)

BMW    P 75.18  C -0.44%  R 104.85 – 63.38  Y -13.52%

Daimler    P 59.31  C -0.06%  R 86.95 – 50.83  Y -23.61%

VW    P 130.07  C +0.08%  R 199.80 – 95.00 Y -31.03%

Cross    P 3.73  C +0.16%  R 6.00 – 2.70  Y +34.97%

Piaggio    P 1.49  C +0.54%  R 3.13 – 1.45  Y -50.11%

Notes: Daimler’s AMG-Mercedes subsidiary has a 25% stake in MV Agusta. Volkswagen Group owns Ducati. Cross Industries owns KTM.

 

PAKISTAN (Pakistani rupee)

Atlas Honda    P 390.10  C +0.03%  R 414.80 – 320.05  Y N/A

Pak Suzuki    P 438.00  C +1.26%  R 532.00 – 363.01  Y N/A

Notes: Atlas Honda and Pak Suzuki are JV assembly partners.

 

INDIA (rupee)

Hero    P 3260.85  C -0.17%  R 3306.95 – 2257.20  Y +20.69%

Bajaj    P 2720.60  C -1.8%  R 2801.85 – 2133.15  Y +11.57%

TVS    P 300.95  C +0.2%  R 340.90 – 201.00  Y +20.7% 

Eicher    P 19,812.50  C +0.29%  R 21,596.00 – 14,800.00  Y -0.96%

Mahindra    P 1440.55  C +0.4%  R 1485.20 – 1091.25  Y +9.24%

Maharashtra    P 1465.60  C -0.44%  R 1619.00 – 936.60  Y +33.65%

Scooters India    P 33.15  C -0.75%  R 35.05 – 22.00  Y +28.74%

Notes: Hero MotoCorp is an own-brand former Honda JV partner. Bajaj has a major shareholding in KTM and ties with it and Kawasaki. TVS is a former Suzuki JV partner and now BMW Motorrad contractor. Eicher makes the Royal Enfield brand. Mahindra & Mahindra has an own-brand bike range and a majority stake in French scooter brand Peugeot. Maharashtra Scooters assembles CKD scooter kits manufactured by Bajaj. Scooters India makes Vikram three-wheeled taxis and light trucks. The Indian government has a majority stake.

 

JAPAN (yen)

Honda    P 2853  C -2.41%  R 4499 – 2417  Y -24.74%

Yamaha    P 1764  C -1.23%  R 3045 – 1409  Y -32.23%

Suzuki    P 3186  C +0.22%  R 4780.5 – 2450  Y -22.68%

Kawasaki    P 285  C -1.72%  R 565 – 257  Y -46.33%

 

CHINA (yuan)

Qianjiang    P 14.83  C +5.03%  R 15.62 – 5.83  Y +65.7%

Zongshen    P 10.71  C +0.09%  R 18.20 – 8.08  Y N/A  

Sundiro    P 5.71  C N/A  R 12.69 – 4.89  Y N/A [Trading halted]

Jialing    P 7.38  C N/A  R 16.34 – 5.27  Y N/A [Trading halted]

Lifan    P 11.18  C -4.28%  R 19.47 – 8.05  Y -22.77%

Loncin    P 20.62  C -2%  R 28.30 – 13.00  Y -27.76%

Linhai    P 11.83  C -1.91%  R 14.71 – 8.41  Y N/A

GAG    P 23.74  C -0.59%  R 25.55 – 14.77  Y +24.84%

 

CHINA (Hong Kong dollar)

Jianshe    P 14.21  C -1.25% R 19.20 – 10.92  Y +24.87%

Notes: Qianjiang owns Keeway and formerly Italian Benelli. Zongshen makes own-brand bikes and proprietary engines, and has JV partnerships with Piaggio, (scooters), and Harley-Davidson (parts). Sundiro is a Honda JV partner. Jialing makes own-brand bikes using Honda licensed technology. Lifan makes own-brand bikes and distributes MV Agusta in China. Loncin is a Kawasaki JV partner and OEM engine contractor to BMW Motorrad. Linhai and Jianshe are Yamaha JV partners. Guangzhou Automobile Group (GAG) is the parent of Honda JV partner and own-brand bike manufacturer Wuyang.

 

MALAYSIA (ringgit)

Oriental Holdings    P 6.53  C N/A  R 7.33 – 6.46  Y -7.39%

Hong Leong    P 8.79  C +3.17%  R 8.79 – 4.43  Y +105.22%

Notes: Oriental Holdings is a Honda JV partner. Hong Leong Industries is a Yamaha JV partner.

 

SOUTH KOREA (won)

KR    P 1280  C +6.67%  R 1770 – 905  Y +11.3%

Daelim    P 82,500  C +5.77%  R 94,300 – 59,600  Y +14.3%

Notes: KR Motors makes Hyosung bikes and ATVs. Daelim Industrial retains a controlling 59% stake in Daelim Motor, the largest bike manufacturer in Korea. (The remainder is British, owned by Standard Chartered Bank.)

 

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