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3 FEBRUARY: WEEKLY MOTORCYCLE INDUSTRY SHARE PRICEs

A snapshot of global bike and ATV industry share performance at the trading week closure on Friday 3 February 2017.

 

Trump’s presidential honeymoon didn’t last a fortnight. Alarm bells on Wall Street began clanging loudly as his divisive approach and protectionist tub-thumping became more evident. Confidence among New York investors was steadily weaker until news of January’s US jobs growth data — far more optimistic than forecast — perked them up on Friday. That lifted the S&P 500 index to an emaciated weekly 0.1% rise.

However, analysts are already starting to point out that the new White House incumbent will face an industrial recruitment crisis if his policies actually lead to a significant return of offshored manufacturing, given such a drastically shrinking domestic unemployment rate.

Biker stocks weren’t really in this loop, though. Harley-Davidson dropped by 4.5%, on the back of further lacklustre annual results announced on Tuesday. And Polaris, hardly a share-picker’s favourite given previously revealed poor 2016 performance, lost 1.7%.

America’s gloomy mood and fears about its erratic governance spread across the developed world. The eurozone’s Eurofirst 300 was 0.7% lower and the majority of motorcycle-related listings fared worse. In Germany, Daimler, BMW and VW suffered respective 3.9%, 3.8% and 2.7% retreats. In Italy, Piaggio was 3.2% down. Only class-act KTM in Austria bucked the continental trend, climbing by 1.9%.

Japan had also been on the receiving end of a Trump tongue-lashing earlier in the week, accusing it of unfair currency manipulation to make exports to the US under-priced. Consequentially, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index plunged by 2.8%. Kawasaki suffered most, 5.4% down, followed by Yamaha with a 3.9% fall. Honda dropped by 1.8% while Suzuki escaped with a 0.8% gain.

Among big emerging market players, India had its own issues. Although paper money supply there has now recovered from “demonetisation” and the BSE Sensex 30 was 1.3% up, the impact on motorcycle sales is now beginning to show in quarterly financial statements. So the local “big four” — Hero, Bajaj, TVS and Eicher — didn’t benefit and all saw their share prices lurk on the negative side of flat. Honda’s unlisted but vast wholly-owned Indian bike subsidiary also admitted experiencing its first-ever sales reversal during the final quarter of last year.

China was a different story, beset by hangovers from Lunar New Year celebrations. Shanghai’s Composite index rose by 0.6% but stock-trading was lethargic, typified by very small price movements for the nine listed motorcycle producers. Five of them sank by negligible amounts and four improved marginally, led by the usual suspect Qianjiang adding 0.7%.  

 

Price (P) Daily change (C) 52-week range (R) One-year investment return (Y) 

 

USA (US dollar)

Harley-Davidson    P 56.45  C +0.36%  R 62.35 – 36.97  Y +41.91%

Polaris    P 85.25  C +1.14%  R 104.25 – 70.14  Y +5.7%

Arctic Cat    P 18.61  C +0.11%  R 19.82 – 12.13  Y +31.43%

US Highland    P 0.0004  C -20%  R 0.25 – 0.0002  Y N/A

Confederate    P 0.04  C N/A  R 0.27 – 0.04  Y N/A

Notes: Polaris makes Indian bikes, ATVs, snowmobiles, quadricycles and EVs. Arctic Cat makes ATVs and snowmobiles. US Highland makes off-road bikes. Confederate Motors makes limited-edition cruisers.

 

CANADA (Canadian dollar)

BRP    P 25.57  C +0.63%  R 29.09 – 13.76  Y +61.84%

Notes: Bombardier Recreational Products makes Can-Am ATVs and Spyder road trikes, Ski-Doo snowmobiles, Sea-Doo PWCs and Rotax proprietary engines.

 

TAIWAN (Taiwanese dollar)

Sanyang    P 20.65  C N/A  R 23.90 – 20.00  Y +2.11%

Notes: Sanyang Motor (SYM) is the leading Taiwanese bike manufacturer.

 

VIETNAM (Hong Kong dollar)

VMEPH    P 0.52  C +1.96%  R 0.54 – 0.36  Y +35.06%

Notes: Vietnam Manufacturing & Export Processing Holdings, a JV partner of SYM, is the third-largest Vietnamese bike manufacturer.

 

INDONESIA (rupiah)

Astra    P 8100  C N/A  R 8875 – 6000  Y +33.79%

Indomobil    P 1300  C -3.35%  R 2150 – 1250  Y -39.12%

Notes: Astra International is a Honda JV partner. Its controlling shareholder is British conglomerate Jardine Matheson. Indomobil Sukses Internasional is a Suzuki JV partner.

 

EUROPE (euro)

BMW    P 84.15  C -0.4%  R 91.76 – 63.38  Y +22.16%

Daimler    P 67.82  C -0.77%  R 73.23 – 50.83  Y +17.32%

VW    P 148.73  C +0.26%  R 157.40 – 106.65 Y +26.2%

KTM    P 5.49  C +0.7%  R 5.60 – 3.27  Y +60.54%

Piaggio    P 1.52  C -0.65%  R 2.11 – 1.39  Y -11.99%

Notes: Daimler’s AMG-Mercedes subsidiary has a 25% stake in MV Agusta. Volkswagen Group owns Ducati.

 

PAKISTAN (Pakistani rupee)

Atlas Honda    P 585.00  C -1.29%  R 648.00 – 351.00  Y N/A

Pak Suzuki    P 708.25  C -0.12%  R 735.00 – 363.01  Y N/A

Notes: Atlas Honda and Pak Suzuki are JV assembly partners.

 

INDIA (rupee)

Hero    P 3214.00  C -0.46%  R 3740.00 – 2438.00  Y +32.38%

Bajaj    P 2808.10  C +0.02%  R 3122.00 – 2171.95  Y +22.5%

TVS    P 391.45  C +0.51%  R 420.00 – 256.00  Y +37.68% 

Eicher    P 23,385.90  C -1.65%  R 26,641.30 – 16,617.40  Y +40.35%

Mahindra    P 1260.70  C -0.34%  R 1508.95 – 1091.25  Y +5.67%

Maharashtra    P 1722.30  C +0.23%  R 2170.00 – 1075.00  Y +45.17%

Scooters India    P 39.15  C -0.38%  R 44.85 – 22.65  Y +45.27%

Notes: Hero MotoCorp is a former Honda JV partner. Bajaj has a major shareholding in KTM and ties with it and Kawasaki. TVS is a former Suzuki JV partner and BMW Motorrad contractor. Eicher makes the Royal Enfield brand. Mahindra & Mahindra has an own-brand bike range, a majority stake in French scooter brand Peugeot and owns formerly British BSA brand rights. Maharashtra Scooters assembles CKD scooter kits manufactured by Bajaj. Scooters India makes Vikram three-wheeled taxis and light trucks.

 

JAPAN (yen)

Honda    P 3423  C +0.18%  R 3604 – 2417  Y +10.56%

Yamaha    P 2333  C +0.39%  R 2834 – 1409  Y +6.65%

Suzuki    P 4498  C +1.79%  R 4529 – 2450  Y +36.3%

Kawasaki    P 349  C +0.87%  R 411 – 257  Y +10.14%

 

CHINA (yuan)

Qianjiang    P 17.88  C +0.73%  R 20.48 – 6.80  Y +148.33%

Zongshen    P 8.88  C +0.11%  R 11.53 – 8.08  Y -0.37%  

Sundiro    P 7.68  C -1.29%  R 9.94 – 6.28  Y N/A

Jialing    P 9.48  C +1.28%  R 12.01 – 5.79  Y +54.4%

Lifan    P 8.81  C +0.23%  R 12.91 – 8.31  Y -5.87%

Loncin    P 22.24  C -0.89%  R 25.35 – 14.88  Y +28.45%

Linhai    P 16.84  C -0.41%  R 21.57 – 8.68  Y +75.42%

GAG    P 23.57  C -0.76%  R 26.27 – 18.10  Y +17.68%

 

CHINA (Hong Kong dollar)

Jianshe    P 12.94  C -1.82%  R 17.99 – 11.25  Y -26.73%

Notes: Qianjiang owns Keeway and formerly Italian Benelli. Zongshen makes own-brand bikes and proprietary engines, and has JV partnerships with Piaggio, (scooters), and Harley-Davidson (parts). Sundiro is a Honda JV partner. Jialing makes own-brand bikes using Honda licensed technology. Lifan makes own-brand bikes and distributes MV Agusta in China. Loncin is a Kawasaki JV partner and OEM engine contractor to BMW Motorrad. Linhai and Jianshe are Yamaha JV partners. Guangzhou Automobile Group (GAG) is the parent of Honda JV partner and own-brand bike manufacturer Wuyang.

 

MALAYSIA (ringgit)

Oriental Holdings    P 6.75  C -0.44%  R 7.52 – 6.48  Y +4.99%

Hong Leong    P 9.77  C +0.93%  R 10.08 – 5.60  Y +70.5%

Notes: Oriental Holdings is a Honda JV partner. Hong Leong Industries is a Yamaha JV partner.

 

SOUTH KOREA (won)

KR    P 775  C -1.02%  R 1350 – 661  Y -34.04%

Daelim    P 82,300  C -2.02%  R 94,300 – 72,500  Y +6.06%

Notes: KR Motors makes Hyosung bikes and ATVs. Daelim Industrial retains a controlling 59% stake in Daelim Motor, the largest bike manufacturer in Korea. (The remainder is British, owned by Standard Chartered Bank.)

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