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MARKET ANALYSIS AND SHARE PRICE GUIDE

10 FEBRUARY: WEEKLY MOTORCYCLE INDUSTRY SHARE PRICES

A snapshot of global bike and ATV industry share performance at the trading week closure on Friday 10 February 2017. BDN financial editor Roger Willis crunched the numbers.

 

President Trump’s impact on worldwide equity investment confidence is now up and down like the proverbial stripper’s knickers. During the past week, his latest promise of “phenomenal” corporate taxation cuts generated renewed bullishness in New York. The S&P 500 index lifted to finish 0.7% higher and many industrial and exporter stocks did much better than that. Among them was Harley-Davidson, bouncing back from a full-year results depression to add 1.6%. Polaris beat its bigger foe, rising by 3.3%.

In Europe, KTM shares vastly out-performed similarly improving sentiment with a 5.6% hike to hit an all-time record valuation. The eurozone’s Eurofirst 300 put on 0.8% but pay-back was patchy for other biker-related businesses. Among the big German automotives, only BMW was positive, with a 1.1% gain. Daimler fell by 0.9% and VW by 1.5%. Fresh losses for ailing Italian banks impinged on trading in Milan and Piaggio felt some of their pain, dropping by 2%.

Japan combined Wall Street’s return to good humour with a more conciliatory approach on Japanese exports to the US from Trump and a softer yen making them even cheaper. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 climbed by 2.4% and motorcycle manufacturers celebrated to a greater or lesser extent. Star of the show was Yamaha, shrugging off recent reversals to post an 8.3% surge. Honda followed with 5.5% and Kawasaki was close behind at 4.9% growth. Only Suzuki was marginal, managing just 0.5%.

In the emerging world, India was weakest, as its BSE Sensex 30 rose by only 0.3%, but still generally positive. Bajaj was sole minor loser among motorcycling big names, 0.3% down. Most achieved improvements in a 1% to 3% range. TVS out-shone the lot, 5.1% up. China was much cockier thanks to a batch of strong international trade data cheering investors. Shanghai’s Composite index boasted a 1.8% weekly rise. Bike producers universally reflected that optimistic mood. Notable performers were Linhai, Jialing and Zongshen, respectively making 10.6%, 6.4%  and 3.6% week-on-week advances.                                  

 

Price (P) Daily change (C) 52-week range (R) One-year investment return (Y) 

 

USA (US dollar)

Harley-Davidson    P 57.34  C +1.02%  R 62.35 – 36.97  Y +52.12%

Polaris    P 88.04  C +0.36%  R 104.25 – 70.14  Y +13.1%

Arctic Cat    P 18.56  C N/A  R 19.82 – 12.13  Y +30.15%

US Highland    P 0.0005  C N/A  R 0.23 – 0.0002  Y N/A

Confederate    P 0.03  C -25%  R 0.27 – 0.03  Y N/A

Notes: Polaris makes Indian bikes, ATVs, snowmobiles, quadricycles and EVs. Arctic Cat makes ATVs and snowmobiles. US Highland makes off-road bikes. Confederate Motors makes limited-edition cruisers.

 

CANADA (Canadian dollar)

BRP    P 26.91  C +2.48%  R 29.09 – 13.76  Y +83.44%

Notes: Bombardier Recreational Products makes Can-Am ATVs and Spyder road trikes, Ski-Doo snowmobiles, Sea-Doo PWCs and Rotax proprietary engines.

 

TAIWAN (Taiwanese dollar)

Sanyang    P 20.60  C N/A  R 23.90 – 20.00  Y +1.87%

Notes: Sanyang Motor (SYM) is the leading Taiwanese bike manufacturer.

 

VIETNAM (Hong Kong dollar)

VMEPH    P 0.51  C -1.92%  R 0.54 – 0.36  Y +32.47%

Notes: Vietnam Manufacturing & Export Processing Holdings, a JV partner of SYM, is the third-largest Vietnamese bike manufacturer.

 

INDONESIA (rupiah)

Astra    P 8050  C -0.31%  R 8875 – 6000  Y +21.23%

Indomobil    P 1290  C +0.78%  R 2145 – 1250  Y -36.02%

Notes: Astra International is a Honda JV partner. Its controlling shareholder is British conglomerate Jardine Matheson. Indomobil Sukses Internasional is a Suzuki JV partner.

 

EUROPE (euro)

BMW    P 85.06  C +0.26%  R 91.76 – 63.38  Y +25.85%

Daimler    P 67.18  C -0.12%  R 73.23 – 50.83  Y +16.25%

VW    P 146.55  C +2.1%  R 157.40 – 106.65 Y +32.55%

KTM    P 5.80  C +0.55%  R 5.80 – 3.30  Y +67.15%

Piaggio    P 1.49  C +1.22%  R 2.11 – 1.39  Y -14.58%

Notes: Daimler’s AMG-Mercedes subsidiary has a 25% stake in MV Agusta. Volkswagen Group owns Ducati.

 

PAKISTAN (Pakistani rupee)

Atlas Honda    P 579.00  C -0.34%  R 648.00 – 351.00  Y N/A

Pak Suzuki    P 710.51  C -0.82%  R 735.00 – 363.01  Y N/A

Notes: Atlas Honda and Pak Suzuki are JV assembly partners.

 

INDIA (rupee)

Hero    P 3268.60  C +0.11%  R 3740.00 – 2438.00  Y +30.91%

Bajaj    P 2800.80  C +0.59%  R 3122.00 – 2171.95  Y +21.12%

TVS    P 411.50  C +0.86%  R 420.00 – 256.00  Y +44.57% 

Eicher    P 24,013.05  C +0.5%  R 26,641.30 – 17,397.80  Y +34.81%

Mahindra    P 1277.65  C -1.09%  R 1508.95 – 1091.25  Y +8.97%

Maharashtra    P 1744.60  C -1.86%  R 2170.00 – 1075.00  Y +47.5%

Scooters India    P 39.20  C N/A  R 44.85 – 22.65  Y +40.5%

Notes: Hero MotoCorp is a former Honda JV partner. Bajaj has a major shareholding in KTM and ties with it and Kawasaki. TVS is a former Suzuki JV partner and BMW Motorrad contractor. Eicher makes the Royal Enfield brand. Mahindra & Mahindra has an own-brand bike range, a majority stake in French scooter brand Peugeot and owns formerly British BSA brand rights. Maharashtra Scooters assembles CKD scooter kits manufactured by Bajaj. Scooters India makes Vikram three-wheeled taxis and light trucks.

 

JAPAN (yen)

Honda    P 3605  C +2.88%  R 3614 – 2417  Y +28.29%

Yamaha    P 2527  C +7.72%  R 2834 – 1409  Y +41.39%

Suzuki    P 4520  C +2.98%  R 4568 – 2450  Y +58.14%

Kawasaki    P 366  C +3.98%  R 411 – 257  Y +27.13%

 

CHINA (yuan)

Qianjiang    P 17.99  C -1.8%  R 20.48 – 6.80  Y +149.86%

Zongshen    P 9.20  C -1.18%  R 11.53 – 8.08  Y +2.78%  

Sundiro    P 7.88  C -1.29%  R 9.94 – 6.28  Y N/A

Jialing    P 10.09  C -1.66%  R 12.01 – 5.79  Y +65.95%

Lifan    P 9.00  C -0.66%  R 12.91 – 8.31  Y -1.76%

Loncin    P 22.32  C -1.41%  R 25.35 – 14.88  Y +28.62%

Linhai    P 18.62  C +0.49%  R 21.57 – 8.68  Y +82.37%

GAG    P 24.14  C +0.25%  R 26.27 – 18.10  Y +19.76%

 

CHINA (Hong Kong dollar)

Jianshe    P 12.75  C -1.01%  R 17.42 – 11.25  Y -28.01%

Notes: Qianjiang owns Keeway and formerly Italian Benelli. Zongshen makes own-brand bikes and proprietary engines, and has JV partnerships with Piaggio, (scooters), and Harley-Davidson (parts). Sundiro is a Honda JV partner. Jialing makes own-brand bikes using Honda licensed technology. Lifan makes own-brand bikes and distributes MV Agusta in China. Loncin is a Kawasaki JV partner and OEM engine contractor to BMW Motorrad. Linhai and Jianshe are Yamaha JV partners. Guangzhou Automobile Group (GAG) is the parent of Honda JV partner and own-brand bike manufacturer Wuyang.

 

MALAYSIA (ringgit)

Oriental Holdings    P 6.59  C -0.45%  R 7.52 – 6.48  Y +3.12%

Hong Leong    P 9.60  C +0.21%  R 10.08 – 5.63  Y +70.64%

Notes: Oriental Holdings is a Honda JV partner. Hong Leong Industries is a Yamaha JV partner.

 

SOUTH KOREA (won)

KR    P 779  C -0.38%  R 1350 – 661  Y -34.81%

Daelim    P 84,000  C +3.7%  R 94,300 – 72,500  Y +2.56%

Notes: KR Motors makes Hyosung bikes and ATVs. Daelim Industrial retains a controlling 59% stake in Daelim Motor, the largest bike manufacturer in Korea. (The remainder is British, owned by Standard Chartered Bank.)

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