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NO MERCY FROM NOVEMBER REGISTRATIONS

Recent upbeat prognostications from new MCIA supremo Tony Campbell promptly crumbled in the face of deepening decline for powered two-wheeler registrations in November, writes BDN financial editor Roger Willis.

The monthly total plunged by 17.7% to 6288 units. Scooters were 32.8% down at 1362, motorcycles fell by 12.9% to 4363 and mopeds lost 6% on a mere 513. And these tallies would have been worse without a plethora of late-season special offers, finance incentives and raw discounting.

For the 11 months of 2017 to date, the PTW market has suffered a 15.7% retreat to 99,201. To reach Campbell’s wildly optimistic forecast of full-year figures in a 107,000 to 110,000 range, dealers will now need to register a veritable bonanza of 8000 machines during the three trading weeks of December. And such good fortune would only exceed the bottom end of his scale.

Ignoring last year’s aberrant data and using 2015 as a guide, realistic numbers for the final month are likely to be around 5000 at best — but, given weakening consumer demand across many areas of the economy, potentially much less. Of course, the 31 December deadline for moped Euro 4 compliance will probably result in some last-minute preregistrations of un-derogated stock. However, the sub-50cc market’s puny size — well under 7000 bikes YTD — suggests just a few hundred additions may emerge.

Returning to November’s lamentable nitty-gritty, the sole high-volume style category to show any growth was Adventure Sport, with a 6.6% rise. The only positive engine band was 651-1000cc products, achieving a fairly marginal 1.2% improvement. Worst dunces were the 51-125cc and over-1000cc slots, posting respective 28.5% and 19.6% losses.

Top-ten brand rankings were all over the place. Suzuki in fifth spot was star performer, adding 45.4% against registrations in the equivalent month last year. BMW was in seventh position but boasted a 6.5% increase. Ninth-placed Kawasaki was 2.7% up. And Yamaha maintained runner-up status while breaking a serial run of sliding numbers to claim a slight 1% improvement.

Now for the bad news. KTM was third but took a 45.5% dive. Lexmoto in sixth followed it into ignominy, 35.2% down. Triumph was fourth but copped a 15% drop. Harley-Davidson sank by 11.3% in tenth place. Piaggio in eighth fell by 7%. And surprisingly, market leader Honda also joined them in negativity with a 6.8% decrease.

For full results, courtesy of the MCIA, click here    
 

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