16 DECEMBER: WEEKLY MOTORCYCLE INDUSTRY SHARE PRICES

A snapshot of global bike and ATV industry share performance at the trading week closure on Friday 16 December 2016.

In the wake of only a second base-rate hike by the US Federal Reserve since the financial crisis, New York’s Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 indices all hit record highs mid-week and then fell back as investor fatigue and festive distractions set in. The S&P’s weekly average finished almost dead flat on a mere 0.04% increase.

Harley-Davidson stock approximately followed that curve, briefly peaking above its previous weekly close on Tuesday but then sank harder to end 2.7% down. Polaris was on a feeble version of the same track, eventually dropping by 4.9%.

Europe was more firmly bullish. The Eurofirst 300 added a weekly 1% and the Stoxx 600 put on 1.3%, the latter reaching its highest close in 2016. All five bike-related shares were positive. Daimler and VW were best performers, respectively posting 2.4% and 3.2% gains. The others trailed behind index averages. KTM’s price edged up by 0.8% and Piaggio by 0.6%. BMW was the weakling with just 0.3%.

Responding to a raised American interest rate, the US dollar had also strengthened again mightily, further weakening the yen and making Japanese exporters into increasingly attractive propositions. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index therefore stacked on 2.1% over the week. Suzuki beat that to lead the motorcycling field, 3.1% up. Yamaha wasn’t far behind on 2.9%, followed by Honda with 2.5%. But Kawasaki inexplicably stalled on the line and lost 1.5%.

The two big emerging countries were both negative. India’s demonetisation shambles, with many consumers still unable to access their funds, has affected bike sales sharply. Although the Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex 30 was only 1% down week-on-week, many motorcycle manufacturers felt much greater pain.

Royal Enfield parent Eicher and market leader Hero MotoCorp took the most severe punishment, respectively losing 4.8% and 4.6%. Bajaj was 2.2% down. However, presumably copping a confidence boost from its BMW export relationship, TVS completely bucked that trend and delivered a muscular 4% gain.

Chinese shares tumbled too, after the People’s Bank of China pumped in liquidity to hold up its currency against the US dollar. Shanghai’s Composite index fell by 3.4%. Most biker stocks followed suit. Only Benelli parent Qianjiang stood out from the crowd as usual, gaining 2.9%.

Price (P) Daily change (C) 52-week range (R) One-year investment return (Y) 

USA (US dollar)

Harley-Davidson    P 59.17  C -1.1%  R 62.35 – 36.36  Y +35.07%

Polaris    P 81.60  C -0.02%  R 104.25 – 67.80  Y -1.33%

Arctic Cat    P 16.76  C +3.39%  R 19.82 – 8.90  Y +6.96%

US Highland    P 0.0005  C -16.67%  R 0.43 – 0.0002  Y N/A

Confederate    P 0.04  C N/A  R 0.27 – 0.04  Y N/A

Notes: Polaris makes Victory and Indian bikes, ATVs, snowmobiles, quadricycles and EVs. Arctic Cat makes ATVs and snowmobiles. US Highland makes off-road bikes. Confederate Motors makes limited-edition cruisers.

CANADA (Canadian dollar)

BRP    P 28.17  C -0.77%  R 29.09 – 13.76  Y +39.59%

Notes: Bombardier Recreational Products makes Can-Am ATVs and Spyder road trikes, Ski-Doo snowmobiles, Sea-Doo PWCs and Rotax proprietary engines.

TAIWAN (Taiwanese dollar)

Sanyang    P 21.05  C -0.71%  R 23.90 – 19.80  Y -2.15%

Notes: Sanyang Motor (SYM) is the leading Taiwanese bike manufacturer.

VIETNAM (Hong Kong dollar)

VMEPH    P 0.47  C -2.11%  R 0.54 – 0.36  Y +3.33%

Notes: Vietnam Manufacturing & Export Processing Holdings, a JV partner of SYM, is the third-largest Vietnamese bike manufacturer.

INDONESIA (rupiah)

Astra    P 7575  C -2.26%  R 8875 – 5700  Y +23.63%

Indomobil    P 1380  C -1.43%  R 2395 – 1250  Y -30.53%

Notes: Astra International is a Honda JV partner. Its controlling shareholder is British conglomerate Jardine Matheson. Indomobil Sukses Internasional is a Suzuki JV partner.

EUROPE (euro)

BMW    P 89.65  C +0.05%  R 99.49 – 63.38  Y -2.55%

Daimler    P 69.89  C -0.16%  R 79.50 – 50.83  Y -3.48%

VW    P 138.65  C +1.35%  R 146.01 – 106.65 Y +0.05%

KTM    P 5.06  C -0.39%  R 5.40 – 3.25  Y +39.26%

Piaggio    P 1.59  C +1.53%  R 2.37 – 1.39  Y -26.83%

Notes: Daimler’s AMG-Mercedes subsidiary has a 25% stake in MV Agusta. Volkswagen Group owns Ducati.

PAKISTAN (Pakistani rupee)

Atlas Honda    P 584.00  C -1.01%  R 620.00 – 349.60  Y N/A

Pak Suzuki    P 569.99  C +2.07%  R 595.00 – 363.01  Y N/A

Notes: Atlas Honda and Pak Suzuki are JV assembly partners.

INDIA (rupee)

Hero    P 3127.90  C -1.31%  R 3740.00 – 2375.00  Y +21.12%

Bajaj    P 2659.50  C -0.42%  R 3122.00 – 2171.95  Y +10.29%

TVS    P 378.20  C -0.32%  R 420.00 – 256.00  Y +33.81% 

Eicher    P 21,759.10  C +1.13%  R 26,641.30 – 14,800.00  Y +35.38%

Mahindra    P 1181.00  C -0.47%  R 1508.95 – 1091.25  Y -4.22%

Maharashtra    P 1565.60  C +0.23%  R 2170.00 – 1056.00  Y +10.66%

Scooters India    P 38.50  C +4.9%  R 44.85 – 22.65  Y +41.54%

Notes: Hero MotoCorp is a former Honda JV partner. Bajaj has a major shareholding in KTM and ties with it and Kawasaki. TVS is a former Suzuki JV partner and BMW Motorrad contractor. Eicher makes the Royal Enfield brand. Mahindra & Mahindra has an own-brand bike range, a majority stake in French scooter brand Peugeot and owns formerly British BSA brand rights. Maharashtra Scooters assembles CKD scooter kits manufactured by Bajaj. Scooters India makes Vikram three-wheeled taxis and light trucks.

JAPAN (yen)

Honda    P 3560  C +0.96%  R 4094 – 2417  Y -6.5%

Yamaha    P 2808  C +0.97%  R 2952 – 1409  Y +2.01%

Suzuki    P 4125  C +1.05%  R 4139 – 2450  Y +13.71%

Kawasaki    P 392  C +0.51%  R 470 – 257  Y -9.83%

CHINA (yuan)

Qianjiang    P 17.58  C +5.02%  R 20.48 – 6.71  Y +53.81%

Zongshen    P 9.47  C +1.18%  R 14.93 – 8.08  Y -31.28%  

Sundiro    P 8.29  C +3.24%  R 9.94 – 5.61  Y -1.62%

Jialing    P 10.13  C +5.3%  R 10.53 – 5.67  Y +1.2%

Lifan    P 9.03  C +0.89%  R 17.65 – 8.05  Y -45.33%

Loncin    P 21.49  C N/A  R 25.52 – 14.80  Y -8.92%

Linhai    P 13.31  C +3.9%  R 14.71 – 8.41  Y N/A

GAG    P 23.47  C -0.13%  R 26.27 – 18.10  Y +5.21%

CHINA (Hong Kong dollar)

Jianshe    P 12.60  C +2.02%  R 19.20 – 11.25  Y -24.42%

Notes: Qianjiang owns Keeway and formerly Italian Benelli. Zongshen makes own-brand bikes and proprietary engines, and has JV partnerships with Piaggio, (scooters), and Harley-Davidson (parts). Sundiro is a Honda JV partner. Jialing makes own-brand bikes using Honda licensed technology. Lifan makes own-brand bikes and distributes MV Agusta in China. Loncin is a Kawasaki JV partner and OEM engine contractor to BMW Motorrad. Linhai and Jianshe are Yamaha JV partners. Guangzhou Automobile Group (GAG) is the parent of Honda JV partner and own-brand bike manufacturer Wuyang.

MALAYSIA (ringgit)

Oriental Holdings    P 6.86  C -0.15%  R 7.52 – 6.48  Y +2.07%

Hong Leong    P 9.36  C -2.4%  R 10.08 – 5.25  Y +65.26%

Notes: Oriental Holdings is a Honda JV partner. Hong Leong Industries is a Yamaha JV partner.

SOUTH KOREA (won)

KR    P 862  C +0.23%  R 1770 – 661  Y -46.63%

Daelim    P 82,700  C -1.43%  R 94,300 – 62,200  Y +27.8%

Notes: KR Motors makes Hyosung bikes and ATVs. Daelim Industrial retains a controlling 59% stake in Daelim Motor, the largest bike manufacturer in Korea. (The remainder is British, owned by Standard Chartered Bank.)