15 JULY: WEEKLY MOTORCYCLE INDUSTRY SHARE PRICES

A snapshot of global bike and ATV industry share performance at the trading week closure on Friday 15 July 2016.

Amazing the difference a few more days can make. Suddenly, the UK was firmly in the grip of a fresh prime minister, who then promptly kicked imminent application of Brexit from the EU into the long grass. Having already asserted that she won’t invoke the Lisbon Treaty’s Article 50 departure initiation clause until 2017 at the earliest, new leaderene Theresa May further indicated that it will also depend on a timing consensus with Scotland’s government. Given ruling Scottish nationalists voted to stay in Europe, that won’t be happening any time soon.

Global markets therefore breathed a collective sigh of relief and have resumed business as usual for the foreseeable future. Sterling only recovered slightly against the dollar but Japan’s yen weakened noticeably as the need for a safe haven among currency traders receded. Every major stock index made a weekly climb.

Star of the show was inevitably Japan. A reduction in the negative forex threat to exporters was compounded by promises of special budgetary measures to boost the economy from prime minister Shinzo Abe — immediately following his party’s landslide re-election. Together, these factors did the trick. Investor confidence soared, as reflected by Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index leaping 9.2% upwards.

Most spectacular beneficiary among Japanese motorcycle manufacturers was Yamaha, with a 21.3% share price rise. Suzuki was 14.8% up and Honda added 13%. Kawasaki performed exactly according to the market average with a 9.2% improvement.

Developed markets elsewhere were more modestly upbeat, as lingering concerns about our EU referendum result were partly subsumed by positive economic signals. The eurozone’s Eurofirst 300 put on 3.1%. The three big German automotives with biker sideshows beat that with a 7.3% average increase. KTM parent Cross put on 3% in Vienna while Piaggio managed a very marginal rise in Milan.

In the US, some strong trending second-quarter corporate results lifted sentiment. New York’s S&P 500 was 1.3% up. Polaris was ahead of that, rising by 3.2%, despite analysts warning that its Q2 numbers might be under par owing to an extensive ATV recall during the period. Harley-Davidson stock, still settling down from a recent spoof hype, fell by 1.3%.

Everything was rosy in major emerging countries too. Somewhat semi-detached from Brexit issues anyway, these advances were attributable to local influences. Still basking in forecast sales hikes from an agriculture-friendly monsoon deluge, all the big Indian bike producers stacked on share value, in line with the Bombay Stock Exchange’s BSE Sensex 30 rising by 2.6% to an 11-month high. In China, reports that second-quarter GDP growth of 6.7% had achieved government targets encouraged dealing. Shanghai’s Composite index was 2.2% up and the Shenzhen exchange yardstick rose by 2%. Four of the six actively-traded Chinese motorcycle maker listings posted gains.

Price (P) Daily change (C) 52-week range (R) One-year investment return (Y) 

USA (US dollar)

Harley-Davidson    P 48.10  C -0.91%  R 60.67 – 36.36  Y -9.89%

Polaris    P 88.07  C +0.34%  R 154.99 – 67.80  Y -40.94%

Arctic Cat    P 17.71  C +2.52%  R 33.71 – 8.90  Y -44.99%

US Highland    P 0.01  C +2.99%  R 0.70 – 0.01  Y N/A

Confederate    P 0.05  C -16.67%  R 0.33 – 0.05  Y N/A

Notes: Polaris makes Victory and Indian bikes, ATVs, snowmobiles, quadricycles and EVs. Arctic Cat makes ATVs and snowmobiles. US Highland makes off-road bikes. Confederate Motors makes Combat Fighter cruisers.

CANADA (Canadian dollar)

BRP    P 20.74  C -0.58%  R 29.75 – 13.76  Y -29.76%

Notes: Bombardier Recreational Products makes Can-Am ATVs, Spyder road trikes, Ski-Doo snowmobiles, Sea-Doo PWCs and Rotax proprietary engines.

TAIWAN (Taiwanese dollar)

Sanyang    P 20.75  C +0.48%  R 24.35 – 19.15  Y -8.99%

Notes: Sanyang Motor (SYM) is the leading Taiwanese bike manufacturer.

VIETNAM (Hong Kong dollar)

VMEPH    P 0.44  C N/A  R 0.60 – 0.36  Y -24.14%

Notes: Vietnam Manufacturing & Export Processing Holdings, a JV partner of SYM, is the third-largest Vietnamese bike manufacturer.

INDONESIA (rupiah)

Astra    P 7100  C N/A  R 7850 – 4975  Y +7.18%

Indomobil    P 1480  C +1.37%  R 3800 – 1250  Y -57.97%

Notes: Astra International is a Honda JV partner. Its controlling shareholder is British conglomerate Jardine Matheson. Indomobil Sukses Internasional is a Suzuki JV partner.

EUROPE (euro)

BMW    P 74.79  C +0.31%  R 104.85 – 63.38  Y -18.43%

Daimler    P 58.25  C -0.6%  R 86.95 – 50.83  Y -27.46%

VW    P 127.16  C -0.27%  R 205.25 – 95.00 Y -37.26%

Cross    P 3.74  C +1.11%  R 6.00 – 2.34  Y +52.09%

Piaggio    P 1.50  C -0.53%  R 3.15 – 1.45  Y -49.14%

Notes: Daimler’s AMG-Mercedes subsidiary has a 25% stake in MV Agusta. Volkswagen Group owns Ducati. Cross Industries owns KTM.

PAKISTAN (Pakistani rupee)

Atlas Honda    P 377.50  C +0.3%  R 414.80 – 320.05  Y N/A

Pak Suzuki    P 404.00  C +0.26%  R 532.00 – 363.01  Y N/A

Notes: Atlas Honda and Pak Suzuki are JV assembly partners.

INDIA (rupee)

Hero    P 3244.10  C -0.52%  R 3293.65 – 2257.20  Y +24.2%

Bajaj    P 2695.60  C +1.14%  R 2719.95 – 2133.15  Y +9.14%

TVS    P 307.35  C +0.94%  R 340.90 – 201.00  Y +17.79% 

Eicher    P 19,781.05  C +1.35%  R 21,620.00 – 14,800.00  Y -5.74%

Mahindra    P 1464.80  C +1.21%  R 1485.20 – 1091.25  Y +12.97%

Maharashtra    P 1326.60  C -1.82%  R 1619.00 – 936.60  Y +16.87%

Scooters India    P 27.85  C -3.47%  R 35.05 – 22.00  Y +8.58%

Notes: Hero MotoCorp is an own-brand former Honda JV partner. Bajaj has a major shareholding in KTM and ties with it and Kawasaki. TVS is a former Suzuki JV partner and now BMW Motorrad contractor. Eicher makes the Royal Enfield brand. Mahindra & Mahindra has an own-brand bike range and a majority stake in French scooter brand Peugeot. Maharashtra Scooters assembles CKD scooter kits manufactured by Bajaj. Scooters India makes Vikram three-wheeled taxis and light trucks. The Indian government has a majority stake.

JAPAN (yen)

Honda    P 2800  C +3.68%  R 4499 – 2417  Y -27.65%

Yamaha    P 1740  C +2.11%  R 3045 – 1409  Y -34.19%

Suzuki    P 3089  C +1.35%  R 4780.5 – 2450  Y -25.62%

Kawasaki    P 284  C +1.43%  R 573 – 257  Y -48.03%

CHINA (yuan)

Qianjiang    P 13.54  C +0.59%  R 15.62 – 5.83  Y +63.33%

Zongshen    P 10.94  C -1.71%  R 18.20 – 8.08  Y N/A  

Sundiro    P 5.71  C N/A  R 12.69 – 4.89  Y N/A [Trading halted]

Jialing    P 7.38  C N/A  R 16.34 – 5.27  Y N/A [Trading halted]

Lifan    P 11.40  C -0.78%  R 19.47 – 8.05  Y -15.94%

Loncin    P 19.86  C -0.1%  R 31.20 – 13.00  Y N/A [Trading halted]

Linhai    P 11.96  C -0.58%  R 14.71 – 8.41  Y -15.72%

GAG    P 22.81  C +0.93%  R 25.55 – 14.77  Y +32.21%

CHINA (Hong Kong dollar)

Jianshe    P 13.57  C N/A  R 19.20 – 8.70  Y +25.88%

Notes: Qianjiang owns Keeway and formerly Italian Benelli. Zongshen makes own-brand bikes and proprietary engines, and has JV partnerships with Piaggio, (scooters), and Harley-Davidson (parts). Sundiro is a Honda JV partner. Jialing makes own-brand bikes using Honda licensed technology. Lifan makes own-brand bikes and distributes MV Agusta in China. Loncin is a Kawasaki JV partner and OEM engine contractor to BMW Motorrad. Linhai and Jianshe are Yamaha JV partners. Guangzhou Automobile Group (GAG) is the parent of Honda JV partner and own-brand bike manufacturer Wuyang.

MALAYSIA (ringgit)

Oriental Holdings    P 6.50  C +0.15%  R 7.33 – 6.46  Y -7.95%

Hong Leong    P 8.45  C +0.96%  R 8.50 – 4.42  Y +99.92%

Notes: Oriental Holdings is a Honda JV partner. Hong Leong Industries is a Yamaha JV partner.

SOUTH KOREA (won)

KR    P 1175  C -0.84%  R 1770 – 905  Y +0.43%

Daelim    P 79,000  C -0.13%  R 94,300 – 59,600  Y -6.31%

Notes: KR Motors makes Hyosung bikes and ATVs. Daelim Industrial retains a controlling 59% stake in Daelim Motor, the largest bike manufacturer in Korea. (The remainder is British, owned by Standard Chartered Bank.)