SHARE PRICES AND MARKET ANALYSIS

A snapshot of global bike and ATV industry share performance at the trading week closure on Friday 15 September 2017. BDN financial editor Roger Willis reports.

US investors took an increasingly relaxed attitude to geopolitical tensions over the past week, significantly raising their appetite for risk. New York’s S&P 500 index climbed by 1.5% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged by 2.2%, touching a record high. Polaris was top performer in our sector, stacking on 7.9%. But some of that was from ongoing speculation about M&A activity with Ducati in the cross-hairs. Textron also beat the indices via a 4.8% rise. However, Harley-Davidson trailed behind market mood, adding only 1.3%.

Bullishness spread to Europe too, where the eurozone’s Eurofirst 300 was 1.3% up. Volkswagen Group and BMW easily outpaced average optimism, boasting respective 3.2% and 2.8% gains. KTM peaked on Monday and then fell back to finish flat. Piaggio rallied mid-week but then lost ground and closed 2% down.

The Japanese shrugged off another North Korean missile test and rejoiced in US dollar strengthening against the yen by 3% on a weekly basis. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index soared by 3.3%. Motorcycle manufacturers raced ahead of overall sentiment. Honda and Yamaha were both 5.7% up. Kawasaki was in hot pursuit, improving by 5.6%. And Suzuki posted a slightly more modest 3.6%.

Indian eyes savoured blossoming retail sales data, boosted by the benefits of a freshly-introduced nationwide sales tax levelling out tariffs and therefore effectively cutting many bigger-ticket consumer prices. This has meant a bonanza for bike purchases during August and bodes well going forward into the autumn’s selling season summit. The BSE Sensex reacted accordingly with a 1.9% rise.

But although market leader Hero is on that bandwagon, investors noted how stalking horse Honda is getting ever closer to demolishing the indigenous star’s hegemony, so its shares actually fell by 1.7%. TVS made the biggest market share increase, pushing Bajaj down to fourth in domestic brand rankings, and was rewarded with a 2.6% hike. Nevertheless, Bajaj still made and sold a lot more bikes than TVS, as exports ramped up to about 40% of production. In response, punters piled in to push the company’s stock 3.8% up. Royal Enfield parent Eicher improved local sales considerably but couldn’t conceal the fact its medium-capacity retro wares are being assailed by growing hi-tech Japanese and home-grown competition. Punishment came in the shape of a 1.9% fall.

China was the only significant pit of gloom globally, as slowing industrial output growth data for August sank in. Shanghai’s Composite index slipped by 0.3%. Among bike producers, about half managed minor gains and the rest retreated. Included in the latter was new listing CFMoto, which appears to have already lost its shine.

Price (P) Daily change (C) 52-week range (R) One-year investment return (Y)

USA (US dollar)

Harley-Davidson    P 48.01  C -1.84%  R 63.40 – 45.53  Y -4.62%
Polaris    P 98.09  C -0.36%  R 108.03 – 70.14  Y +54.13%
Textron    P 51.61  C -0.29%  R 52.89 – 37.19  Y +32.86%
US Highland    P 0.0007  C -12.5%  R 0.0091 – 0.0002  Y N/A
Confederate    P 0.20  C N/A  R 0.24 – 0.03  Y N/A

Notes: Polaris makes Indian bikes, ATVs, snowmobiles, quadricycles and EVs. Textron produces own-brand ATVs. US Highland makes off-road bikes. Confederate Motors makes limited-edition cruisers.

CANADA (Canadian dollar)

BRP    P 40.75  C +0.17%  R 43.88 – 22.20  Y +56.81%

Notes: Bombardier Recreational Products makes Can-Am ATVs and Spyder road trikes, Ski-Doo snowmobiles, Sea-Doo PWCs and Rotax proprietary engines.

TAIWAN (Taiwanese dollar)

Sanyang    P 21.30  C +1.67%  R 22.65 – 20.00  Y +4.61%

Notes: Sanyang Motor (SYM) is the leading Taiwanese bike manufacturer.

VIETNAM (Hong Kong dollar)

VMEPH    0.47  C +2.17%  R 0.61 – 0.41  Y +10.59%

Notes: Vietnam Manufacturing & Export Processing Holdings, a JV partner of SYM, is the third-largest Vietnamese bike manufacturer.

INDONESIA (rupiah)

Astra    P 7850  C -0.63%  R 9350 – 7300  Y +0.3%
Indomobil    P 900  C +0.56%  R 1525 – 860  Y -34.73%

Notes: Astra International is a Honda JV partner. Its controlling shareholder is British conglomerate Jardine Matheson. Indomobil Sukses Internasional is a Suzuki JV partner.

EUROPE (euro)

BMW    P 84.66  C +0.25%  R 91.76 – 71.94  Y +19.75%
VW    P 140.17  C +0.58%  R 157.40 – 119.92  Y +11.44%
KTM    P 4.80  C -1.01%  R 5.80 – 3.87  Y +20.75%
Piaggio    P 2.45  C +0.25%  R 2.60 – 1.39  Y +52.03%

Notes:  Volkswagen Group owns Ducati.

PAKISTAN (Pakistani rupee)

Atlas Honda    P 523.50  C -0.2%  R 657.72 – 475.00  Y +9.06%
Pak Suzuki    P 462.50  C -1.14%  R 936.42 – 431.10  Y -10.8%

Notes: Atlas Honda and Pak Suzuki are JV assembly partners.

INDIA (rupee)

Hero    P 3888.00  C -0.08%  R 4200.00 – 2844.40  Y +11.01%
Bajaj    P 3025.60  C +3.32%  R 3047.50 – 2510.00  Y +3.52%
TVS    P 651.35  C +1.65%  R 655.00 – 316.80  Y +93.67%
Eicher    P 32,007.95  C -0.18%  R 33,483.95 – 19,530.00  Y +38.81%
Mahindra    P 1294.25  C +0.27%  R 1459.50 – 1141.40  Y -7.12%
LML    P 10.25  C -0.97%  R 17.35 – 7.50  Y +28.13%
Maharashtra    P 2846.00  C -1.58%  R 3450.00 – 1384.05  Y +94.62%
Scooters India    P 42.70  C -2.73%  R 75.95 – 31.80  Y +22.88%

Notes: Hero MotoCorp is a former Honda JV partner. Bajaj has a major shareholding in KTM and ties with it and Kawasaki. TVS is a former Suzuki JV partner and BMW Motorrad contractor. Eicher makes the Royal Enfield brand. Mahindra & Mahindra has an own-brand bike range, a majority stake in French scooter brand Peugeot and owns formerly British BSA brand rights. LML is a former Piaggio JV partner making Vespa-derived retro scooters. Maharashtra Scooters assembles CKD scooter kits manufactured by Bajaj. Scooters India makes Vikram three-wheeled taxis and light trucks.

JAPAN (yen)

Honda    P 3245  C +0.9%  R 3675 – 2693.5  Y +11.98%
Yamaha    P 3225  C +1.1%  R 3280 – 1918  Y +67.94%
Suzuki    P 5936  C +0.1%  R 5977 – 3284  Y +73.36%
Kawasaki    P 357  C +0.85%  R 411 – 270  Y +15.48%

CHINA (yuan)

Qianjiang    P 18.31  C -0.38%  R 20.48 – 14.14  Y +9.09%
Zongshen    P 7.45  C N/A  R 10.97 – 6.90  Y -21.51% [Trading halted]
Sundiro    P 7.53  C -2.33%  R 9.94 – 6.88  Y -20.91%
Jialing    P 6.54  C -0.46%  R 12.01 – 5.33  Y -6.3%
Lifan    P 8.44  C -1.4%  R 11.20 – 7.59  Y -13.61%
Loncin    P 8.35  C -1.18%  R 9.33 – 6.83  Y +6.08%
Linhai    P 11.97  C -0.91%  R 21.57 – 11.60  Y -3.01%
GAG    P 25.78  C -0.88%  R 28.43 – 21.82  Y +11.54%
CFMoto    P 39.05  C -3.91%  R 50.92 – 19.63  Y N/A

CHINA (Hong Kong dollar)

Jianshe    P 11.03  C -2.99%  R 15.68 – 7.99  Y -21.05%

Notes: Qianjiang owns Keeway and Benelli. Zongshen makes own-brand bikes and proprietary engines, and has JV partnerships with Piaggio, (scooters), and Harley-Davidson (parts). Sundiro is a Honda JV partner. Jialing makes own-brand bikes using Honda licensed technology. Lifan makes own-brand bikes and distributes MV Agusta in China. Loncin is a Kawasaki JV partner and OEM engine contractor to BMW Motorrad. Linhai and Jianshe are Yamaha JV partners. Guangzhou Automobile Group (GAG) is the parent of Honda JV partner and own-brand bike manufacturer Wuyang. Recent new listing CFMoto exports to the UK under the WK Bikes brand.

MALAYSIA (ringgit)

Oriental Holdings    P 6.64  C +0.45%  R 7.07 – 6.45  Y +3.16%
Hong Leong    P 10.00  C -0.4%  R 10.60 – 8.72  Y +16.32%

Notes: Oriental Holdings is a Honda JV partner. Hong Leong Industries is a Yamaha JV partner.

SOUTH KOREA (won)

KR    P 582  C -0.17%  R 1115 – 573  Y -46.11%
Daelim    P 81,400  C +1.62%  R 94,600 – 74,600  Y +6.51%

Notes: KR Motors makes Hyosung bikes and ATVs. Daelim Industrial retains a controlling 59% stake in Daelim Motor, the largest bike manufacturer in Korea. (The remainder is British, owned by Standard Chartered Bank.)