A snapshot of bike and ATV industry share performance across key manufacturers and major global markets at the trading week closure on Friday 8 July 2022. BDN financial editor Roger Willis reports.
USA — UPBEAT VERSUS DOWNBEAT
In a week shortened by 4 July Independence Day celebrations, the Wall Street debate over alternative risks of either rampant inflation or a sharp recession — brokered by the increasingly dysfunctional US Federal Reserve — continued to rage.
Divided opinion between optimists and pessimists saw market indices bouncing up and down on a daily basis. And finally the former won this joust, despite evidence suggesting America is already in recession while inflationary pressures are still mounting.
New York’s blue-chip S&P 500 index and S&P’s MidCap 400 managed respective 1.9% and 1.1% gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed a slightly more moderate 0.8% up.
HOGOMETER
Harley-Davidson shares approximately tracked such volatility. Opening on Tuesday with a 1.7% rise, the price then sank by 1.5% on Wednesday. Anticipation of upbeat US jobs data for June lifted the general mood on Thursday, engendering 1.9% recovery for Harley. But sentiment swung back the other way on Friday, resulting in a 0.8% loss.
| Currency: dollar | Price | Week | Month |
| Harley-Davidson | 32.43 | +1.3% | -0.4% |
| Polaris Industries | 112.01 | +10.9% | +11.9% |
| Textron | 61.06 | -0.3% | -3% |
| Ideanomics (Energica) | 0.73 | +15.9% | +2.8% |
EUROPE — LOOKING FOR BRIGHTER CUES
A slightly different version of the same story boosted markets across Europe. Investors betted on the European Central Bank’s dovish reluctance to impose mooted counter-inflationary interest rate rises with any urgency, as the continental economic outlook darkened. Fending off a recession, in the face of an energy crisis, seemed to be climbing up the ECB agenda instead. So industrial stocks rallied after several weeks of retreat.
Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax index and the Borsa Italiana MIB in Milan respectively made 1.6% and 2% advances. In Germany, both BMW and Volkswagen staged significant recoveries, although KTM parent Pierer Mobility couldn’t break its run of losses. However, Piaggio escaped from five uninterrupted weeks of declining value.
| Currency: euro | Price | Week | Month |
| BMW | 76.04 | +3.1% | -5.6% |
| Volkswagen | 188.70 | +9.1% | -7.5% |
| Pierer Mobility | 62.60 | -0.6% | -12.7% |
| Piaggio Group | 2.32 | +2.2% | -3.3% |
JAPAN — CALM BEFORE THE STORM
Japanese markets relaxed following the previous week’s sell-off and the Nikkei 225 share index had risen by 2.2% at close of play on Friday. Three of Japan’s big-four biker brands enjoyed their share of recovery before shocking news arrived too late to upset equity trading.
Quite how investors will react, going forward, to the unprecedented assassination of former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe — gunned down at an electoral campaign meeting — is difficult to discern.
| Currency: yen | Price | Week | Month |
| Honda | 3250 | +1.8% | -4.4% |
| Yamaha | 2505 | +2.5% | -8.6% |
| Suzuki | 4240 | +1.8% | +4.5% |
| Kawasaki | 2491 | -1.9% | -15.4% |
INDIA — LET’S GO SHOPPING
Despite stumbling industrial output, it transpired that Indian consumers had gone on a spending spree in June. Principal Mumbai stock market index, the BSE Sensex 30, acknowledged this good fortune by stacking on 3%.
Domestic retail motorcycle sales had been a massive beneficiary. Market leader Hero MotoCorp’s monthly performance increased by 5.6% to 463,210 bikes. But this success was far outstripped by Honda’s wholly-owned (and therefore unlisted) HMSI subsidiary, the volume of which surged by an extraordinary 67.4% to 355,560. Royal Enfield put on 40.3% to 50,265.
Strangest aspect was surprisingly cruel investor treatment of TVS Motor, though. While its June sales grew by a very respectable 32.8% to 193,090, the company’s share price actually fell in response. Maybe just profit-taking?
| Currency: rupee | Price | Week | Month |
| Hero MotoCorp | 2849.30 | +3.1% | +9.5% |
| Bajaj Auto | 3825.00 | +5.5% | -1.4% |
| TVS Motor | 839.15 | -2.5% | +9.9% |
| Eicher Motors | 2931.60 | +5.3% | +8.1% |
| Mahindra | 1133.60 | +2.4% | +9.4% |
CHINA — THE ONLY WAY IS UP
China’s factory-gate price inflation, a key indicator of export prospects, cooled to a 15-month low during June. And the Chinese government announced relaxation of its usually sacrosanct budget deficit limits, to boost industrial activity.
Such good news assured ongoing market indices positivity for a sixth consecutive week. Shanghai’s all-share SSE Composite rose by 0.9% and the blue-chip CSI 300 added 0.8%. Nevertheless, a majority of listed motorcycle manufacturer share prices languished in red ink. Notable exceptions were Sundiro and Guangzhou Auto, both leading exporter Honda JV affiliates, and fast-growing independent CFMoto — KTM’s Chinese production partner.
| Currency: yuan | Price | Week | Month |
| Qianjiang | 16.30 | -6.5% | -5% |
| Zongshen | 5.98 | -2.9% | -3.5% |
| Sundiro | 2.34 | +6.8% | +6.8% |
| CETC (Jialing) | 10.93 | -1.2% | -2.8% |
| Lifan | 5.35 | -0.6% | +3.1% |
| Loncin | 4.61 | -0.6% | -3.8% |
| Linhai | 8.19 | -3.6% | -14.4% |
| Guangzhou Auto | 16.67 | +5.8% | +3.7% |
| CFMoto | 124.46 | +11.1% | +0.3% |
| Xinri E-Vehicle | 14.94 | -1.3% | +2.4% |
| Currency:Â HK dollar | Price | Week | Month |
| Jianshe | 5.37 | +0.8% | +9.1% |