A snapshot of bike and ATV industry share performance across key manufacturers and major global markets at the trading week closure on Friday 16 September 2022. BDN financial editor Roger Willis reports.
USA — ERRATIC GUESSWORK
Market analysts in New York kicked off the second week of September with wishful thinking, rather than evidence, about US Federal Reserve counter-inflationary policy. So indices initially rose in response. Then Tuesday’s negative American CPI revelations completely upset the apple cart. Rather than an anticipated 0.1% drop in annualised inflation during August, the reality was a 0.1% increase. So, with the prospect of another big base-rate rise by the Fed virtually certain, stock prices slumped and volatility reigned.
By close of play on Friday, the blue-chip S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average had respectively copped 4.8% and 4.1% losses. S&P’s MidCap 400 was 4.7% down and the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite had sunk by 5.5%.
HOGOMETER
Although Harley-Davidson supremo Jochen Zeitz had targeted “late September” for the stand-alone listing and initial public share offer for Harley’s LiveWire electric motorcycle business, and an investor prospectus has already been published, a firm date has yet to emerge. So, after a last-gasp upwards lunge of 4% on Monday, the parent company’s associated price surge petered out and normal speculative betting resumed.
Bad news about US inflation smacked Harley on Tuesday, just like everybody else, and its value plunged by 3.5%. Slippage continued on Wednesday with a slight 0.3% decline and then the price rose by a solitary cent — effectively flatlining — on Thursday. Friday’s 1% loss ensured a negative weekly conclusion.
| Currency: dollar | Price | Week | Month |
| Harley-Davidson | 40.71 | -0.9% | -1.2% |
| Polaris Industries | 107.83 | -4.4% | -11.3% |
| Textron | 62.83 | -4.6% | -4.9% |
| Ideanomics (Energica) | 0.51 | -5.6% | -16.4% |
| Niu Technologies | 4.98 | -7.6% | -19% |
EUROPE — PUTIN’S SHADOW
American aggression on interest rates unsettled European investors to some extent too, given the increased cost of borrowing is bound to have eurozone implications. After a fortnight of positivity, Frankfurt’s key Xetra Dax stock index fell by 2.7% and the Italian FTSE MIB in Milan flatlined.
But underlying such fragile sentiment is Europe’s cost-of-living crisis, with big industrial countries like Germany and Italy scrambling desperately to import and store sufficient gas to run their factories and heat homes through the winter — over which Russia’s war in Ukraine is going to loom ever larger.
On a brighter note, Volkswagen’s share-price bounce doesn’t represent any real-world progress for the group. It’s simply related to floating off some Porsche shares in an IPO. Motivation comes from a desire by the Porsche-Piëch family which controls VW to fatten their enormous wallets even further.
| Currency: euro | Price | Week | Month | |
| BMW | 74.39 | +1.2% | -1.9% | |
| Volkswagen | 196.35 | +6.2% | +1.6% | |
| Pierer Mobility | 62.70 | +0.5% | +2.5% | |
| Piaggio Group | 2.28 | -4.6% | -9.5% |
JAPAN — STORM CLOUDS
The approach of an enormous typhoon, unprecedented in size, had Japanese businesses quite literally running for cover. At the same time, Japan’s central bank warned that core inflation had hit an eight-year high and had now become a subject of concern.
Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 stock index promptly flipped back into negative territory, falling by 2.3% after a previous week of relief. All four indigenous motorcycle-related brands were losers, Honda and Kawasaki taking the hardest knocks.
| Currency: yen | Price | Week | Month |
| Honda | 3525 | -4.2% | -5.1% |
| Yamaha | 2892 | -0.6% | N/A |
| Suzuki | 4959 | -0.4% | +1.6% |
| Kawasaki | 2497 | -4.4% | -4.8% |
INDIA — FALSE PROMISE?
An Indian government economic review claimed that a rebound in consumer spending and rising employment throughout the sub-continent would sustain growth in coming months. But markets weren’t convinced. Both Mumbai’s BSE and National Stock Exchange were assailed by sell-offs in the automotive and tech sectors.
The BSE’s Sensex 30 index dropped by 1.6% and every listed Indian motorcycle manufacturer, with the sole exception of Royal Enfield parent Eicher, lost value. The biggest, Hero MotoCorp, took the hardest hit.
| Currency: rupee | Price | Week | Month |
| Hero MotoCorp | 2685.20 | -5.4% | -5.4% |
| Bajaj Auto | 3689.55 | -4.1% | -9.4% |
| TVS Motor | 1024.90 | -2.7% | +6.9% |
| Eicher Motors | 3549.00 | +2.2% | +3.6% |
| Mahindra | 1250.10 | -3.9% | +0.9% |
CHINA — POOR PROSPECTS
Although Chinese industrial output and domestic retail sales growth narrowly beat forecasts in August, according to Reuters, its chances of lifting economic prospects and avoiding a contraction are only marginal for the rest of this year.
Against such gloomy prognostications, a recent rebound for stocks dissolved and market indices fell sharply. Shanghai’s all-share SSE Composite finished the week 4.2% down and the blue-chip CSI 300 spread over Shanghai and Shenzhen dropped by 3.9%. Ten of China’s eleven listed motorcycle producers were losers.
| Currency: yuan | Price | Week | Month |
| Qianjiang | 24.88 | -5.9% | +1.7% |
| Zongshen | 6.41 | -9.6% | -6.4% |
| Sundiro | 2.44 | -6.2% | -3.6% |
| CETC (Jialing) | 12.70 | -4.6% | -19.4% |
| Lifan | 5.14 | +7.1% | +0.2% |
| Loncin | 5.10 | -2.5% | +3.9% |
| Linhai | 8.41 | -6% | -7.9% |
| Guangzhou Auto | 12.94 | -7.4% | -9.3% |
| CFMoto | 153.97 | -8.9% | +5.8% |
| Xinri E-Vehicle | 21.75 | -5.7% | -8% |
| Currency: HK dollar | Price | Week | Month |
| Jianshe | 5.17 | -0.2% | -4.3% |