SHARE PRICES AND MARKET ANALYSIS

A snapshot of bike and ATV industry share performance across key manufacturers and major global markets at the trading week closure on Friday 1 April 2022. BDN financial editor Roger Willis reports.

USA — NO CLEAR OUTCOMES

With the Ukraine war narrative changing on a daily — and sometimes hourly — basis, US institutional investors increasingly kept their powder dry. Amateur “retail” punters were responsible for most bets and so market indices veered all over the place as the wholly appropriate date of April Fool’s Day approached. US stocks had suffered their worst quarter in the past two years, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite sliding by 9.1% in the first three months of 2022.

In this final week of Q1, utter lack of direction and risk-averse behaviour conspired together, effectively cancelling out both gains and losses. The blue-chip S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average flatlined on aggregate, the former finishing on a gestural 0.1% weekly rise while the latter fell by 0.1%. S&P’s MidCap 400 was similarly afflicted, closing 0.1% down.

HOGOMETER

The impact on trading sentiment of those battlefield bulletins telling a different story almost every day was amply illustrated by how Harley-Davidson went nowhere. Vaguely positive peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow raised its value on Monday and Tuesday, respectively by 1.3% and 3%. Then the debate soured and gears crashed into reverse. Wednesday’s 0.8% fall was followed by retreats of 1.4% on Thursday and 1.6% on Friday. A trivial 0.4% net advance for the week amounted to just 15 cents per share.

EUROPE — INVESTORS IN DENIAL

Spoof promises from “Mad Vlad” Putin to scale back offensive military operations initially energised European markets. But indices started to lose impetus as the week progressed and doubts emerged about his real intentions. However, Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax index managed to hang on to a 1% weekly advance and the FTSE MIB in Milan did better, closing 2.5% up.

A key motivator was the possibility that eurozone industries could continue to settle their gas contracts in the common currency via as-yet unsanctioned Gazprombank, thereby maintaining supply without breaching an embargo on buying roubles.

And, surprisingly, investors across Europe are still to fully factor in the harsh reality of automotive component supply chains from Ukraine hitting the buffers and steadily shuttering production lines. German truck maker Man was the past week’s most significant victim, forced to lay off 11,000 staff in its domestic factories.

JAPAN — SUPPLY CHAINS GROUNDED

The Japanese mood grew more sombre and Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index flipped from the previous fortnight of impressive gains to a weekly 1.7% retreat. No-fly zones over Russian territory, scuppering many carriers’ ability to maintain air-freight parts supply chains from the Far East to European customers, undermined confidence. The effect on motorcycle manufacturers in Japan was mixed.

INDIA — KISSING KREMLIN ASS

Russian Federation foreign minister Sergeĭ Lavrov paid a flying visit to mercurial Indian premier Narendra Modi, to bribe him with further gifts of cut-price oil and a special rouble-rupee currency zone avoiding US dollar energy payment dependence. Modi responded by maintaining his refusal to condemn Putin’s war-mongering and Mumbai traders applauded this stance.

India’s BSE Sensex 30 stock index therefore stacked on 3.3%. Four out of five large indigenous motorcycle makers were beneficiaries. Inexplicably, domestic bike market leader Hero MotoCorp rode in the opposite direction.

CHINA — GLIMMER OF HOPE

After five consecutive weeks of decline for Chinese markets, investor confidence recovered on the back of government economic stimulus input. Shanghai’s SSE Composite and the CSI 300 index covering Shanghai and Shenzhen blue-chips respectively added 2.2% and 2.4%. However, a majority of listed motorcycle makers weren’t invited to the party. Seven out of eleven lost ground.