Nearly seven and a half years after the Great British public voted for Brexit, many are questioning why they did so, and possibly just as many think it was a huge mistake and that the UK should now be looking to re-join Europe.
It’s not for this publication to discuss the political niceties of whether the voters were right or wrong. However, we can look at what is being said and what recent surveys have found.
According to a February 2023 YouGov survey, 53% of 17101 surveyed said the UK was wrong to leave Europe, while 34% said it was the right decision. But of the remainers, 90% said it was wrong to leave, with 6% saying the opposite. Interestingly, of the leavers, 73% thought it was right to leave, and 17% said they regretted the move.
By May, the Independent quoted another YouGov survey. It found that overall, 62% of voters said leaving the EU had been “more of a failure”, with just 9% saying it had been a “success”; that among 18-24-year-olds, more than two-thirds said Brexit had been “more of a failure”. Less than one in 20 considered it a “success”; while support remains stronger in older age groups, almost half of over-65s now consider Brexit a “failure”.
The UK is now, in effect, on the outside looking in with no ability to influence EU decisions at a political level
It’s clear that Brexit has not been the plain sailing that politicians in Westminster declared it would be.
The UK government has since had to negotiate and sign the Windsor Protocol in relation to Northern Ireland; told UK firms to prepare for a new UK-specific UKCA safety certification, which has now been abandoned for the foreseeable future; has re-joined the EU’s cross-border science and research programme – Horizon; and postponed already delayed customs checks.
Beyond that, many have suggested that Brexit has increased inflation and hurt growth. And the UK’s ‘independence’ of action has been seriously stifled. The UK may have freedom of action when it comes to law, regulation and standards, but in reality, if UK firms want to trade in Europe, then – as Apple has recently found with its new iPhone when it had to abandon the lightning connector in favour of USBC – they must follow the EU’s rules. The UK is now, in effect, on the outside looking in with no ability to influence EU decisions at a political level.
So what next? Could the UK re-join Europe?
Demographics and the supremacy of the young over the old are bound to increase the likelihood of it happening. As the FT recently noted, they are hugely pro-Europe, with 79% of 18–24-year-olds wanting to re-join.
Naturally, anything is possible. But if the UK changed tack, the EU would sit smugly when considering an application for EU membership – especially as the UK was formerly a substantial net contributor to the EU budget and is a G7 economy that would significantly enlarge the EU’s single market and role as a major European military power.
However, it would come at a price, with the UK going to the bargaining table with a weakened hand.
First, the UK would probably have to abandon sterling and use the euro instead. Whereas in 1999, when the currency was first adopted, it was untried, now, 24 years later, it’s clear that the euro is here to stay.
Allied to this, the UK would need to pay more into Europe’s coffers without the rebate that Margaret Thatcher famously negotiated. And with the potential for more (poorer) states to join the bloc, UK taxpayers will effectively be paying to level up Europe.
Finally, the UK would most likely have to agree to freedom of movement and so have open borders.
Is all of this likely? Only time will tell, but it’s a fair bet that it’ll happen. In the meantime, France and Germany are pushing plans that offer the UK and other European nations a form of ‘associate’ membership. Offering four membership tiers according to alignment with the EU, the floodgates may open.