SHARE PRICES AND MARKET ANALYSIS

A snapshot of motorcycle and ATV industry share performance across key manufacturers and major global markets at the trading week closure on Friday 1 March 2024. BDN financial editor Roger Willis reports.

USA — TECH SUPREMACY

Bemused analysts don’t know whether to admire or fear the rampant distortion of New York markets by a handful of seven utterly minted NYSE-listed tech stocks leading the blue-chip S&P 500 even further up a garden path of false promise, or the tech-dominant NASDAQ Composite, which hit an all-time record high in the past week. Respectively, these two indices boasted weekly advances of 0.7% and 1.7%, adding to uninterrupted remorseless gains since last autumn.

A pair of notable NASDAQ ePTW stocks were among the beneficiaries — Energica parent Ideanomics and Chinese delivery scooter upstart Niu Technologies. But elsewhere, ordinary US manufacturing mortals were mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average actually fell by 0.1%. And although S&P’s MidCap 400 collectively blossomed by a muscular 1.8%, its biker stocks weren’t consistently attractive. Harley-Davidson shares declined for a second week on the trot, as did those of its electric motorcycle spin-off LiveWire.

EUROPE — CHANGING DIRECTION

Latest eurozone consumer price inflation data from France, Spain and Germany offered few surprises, with figures falling steadily. However, services price inflation remained stubbornly strong. European market analysts increasingly opined that trader concerns would shift towards economic growth rather than inflation, with much more focus on credit delinquencies, jobs data and manufacturing productivity.

Key market indices reflected such optimism. Germany’s Dax Xetra in Frankfurt rose by 1.8% to touch a record high and the Borsa Italiana FTSE MIB in Milan added 0.7%. From a motorcycling perspective, razor-sharp BDN commentators still impatiently await annual results statements from German beancounters at BMW Motorrad and Volkswagen subsidiary Ducati, and the chaps who measure Piaggio spaghetti at Pontedera.

JAPAN — WIRED FOR PROFIT?

The upwards surge of Tokyo and Osaka’s Nikkei 225 index continued unabated, a 2.1% weekly rise taking it even closer to an almost unimaginable 40,000 points. However, motorcycle-related listings were mostly off the boil. Instead, investor enthusiasm concentrated on semiconductor and robotics stocks. That might go some way to explaining why Kawasaki Heavy Industries bucked the biker trend — given its parallel presence in those fields of electronic endeavour.

INDIA — AGRICULTURAL ANGER

Mumbai’s S&P BSE Sensex 30 and NSE Nifty 50 market indices managed only respective 0.3% and 0.6% gains, as a wave of political unrest threatened to destabilise prime minister Narendra Modi’s ruling Hindu nationalist party. Thousands of irate tractor-mounted farmers, who believe they have been short-changed on promised government subsidies, headed for Indian capital Delhi in a vast convoy.

Surprisingly, given an approaching General Election, Modi didn’t try to appease them. Instead, he unleashed the riot police and their protest temporarily ended in tears — or rather tear gas — about 100 miles outside of Delhi. They haven’t gone home, though, and reinforcements are expected to resume battle shortly.

CHINA — DESPERATE MEASURES

Consistent weakness in China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index grew worse in February, racking up pressure on President Xi Jinping to take far stronger action to boost growth. This key PMI has been in contraction territory for five consecutive months — and every month since March 2023 except last September.

However, stimulus intervention, much of it through covert State-funded stock acquisitions, have already buoyed equities to some extent after markets sank to multi-year lows in the past month. But the effect on indices is now fading. This week, Shanghai’s SSE Composite gained just 0.7% and the blue-chip CSI 300 put on only 1.4% — versus respective advances of 4.8% and 3.7% in the previous week — suggesting the stock-purchase programme has run out of steam.

Most listed Chinese motorcycle manufacturers have exploited this recovery phase, to greater or lesser extents. But a lot more export finance hand-outs will be required to get China’s economy back on its feet.