SHARE PRICES AND MARKET ANALYSIS

A snapshot of motorcycle and ATV industry share performance across key manufacturers and major global markets at the trading week closure on Friday 1 November 2024. BDN financial editor Roger Willis reports.

USA —TIME TO VOTE
With only a few days left before a bitterly-fought US presidential election’s conclusion, investors were pretty much running for cover and very few of them were prepared to place risk-loaded equity bets on the outcome. For a second consecutive week, Wall Street market indices finished the week negative.

Biggest losers were the blue-chip S&P 500 and NASDAQ’s Composite, respectively 1.4% and 1.5% down. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P’s MidCap 400 were both 0.2% in arrears. The latter’s biker stocks, already punished for poor Q3 performances, could barely get off the floor.

EUROPE — AMERICAN AND HOMEGROWN WOES
European sentiment was undermined by a pair of fear factors. One came from the prospect of punitive tariff walls savaging exports from Europe to the US, in the event of a Trump election victory. The other was an announcement by Europe’s largest automotive manufacturer Volkswagen that it was preparing to close three of its German factories and slash wages at other plants by 10%. The necessity for this action was attributed their economically unviable status in the face of enforced vehicle electrification. Other eurozone automotives similarly afflicted are likely to follow suit.

Related market indices expressed negativity in response. Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax fell by 1.1% and the FTSE MIB in Milan incurred a 0.3% loss. In Austria, the Wiener Börse ATX closed 1.5% down. There, KTM parent Pierer Mobility shares extended their monthly slump in value to almost 50%. And in Italy, Piaggio Group stock copped a 14.2% loss through October. As for Germany, BMW and Volkswagen — both with motorcycling sidelines — were sinking steadily too.

JAPAN — BAD NEWS IS GOOD NEWS
Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party lost its parliamentary majority, leading investors to believe that political uncertainty would encourage the Bank of Japan to relax monetary policy and splash some cash around. The key Osaka/Tokyo Nikkei 225 stock index therefore turned positive by 0.4%, after a fortnight of lurking in red ink. However, the impact on indigenous motorcycle brand majors, all of whom are about to release quarterly results, was decidedly mixed.

INDIA — SALES SEASON DAMP SQUIB
Diwali’s Festival of Lights Xmas-style celebration went off with more of a whimper than bang. But at least S&P’s BSE Sensex 30 and the NSE Nifty 50 stock indices recovered into positive territory, respectively rising by 0.4% and 0.5%. Bajaj Auto’s warning of a pronounced decline in Diwali seasonal motorcycle sales peak proved to be true, badly knocking Bajaj, Hero, TVS and Mahindra share prices in the monthly run-up to the festive finale. However, Royal Enfield parent Eicher successfully dodged the bullet.

CHINA — SHORT HONEYMOON
Chinese economic stimulus may be a reality now but equities investors plainly remain unconvinced that cash flows into industrial recovery will be maintained and increased. After a brief boost for stocks, volatility has returned to markets and share prices began to blunder all over the place — as reflected by indices sinking again. Shanghai’s all-share SSE Composite finished the week 0.8% down and Shanghai-Shenzhen CSI 300 blue-chips dropped by a harsher 1.7%.

Among listed biker stocks, the stand-outs with still admirable gains were privately managed independents Zongshen and Lifan. The latter’s Honda-esque products were briefly shipped into UK dealerships about 20 years ago by the redoubtable Bill Smith. Conversely, recent golden independent CFMoto, which manufactures JV Yamaha machines for distribution in China and export bikes for KTM (and has a modest cross-shareholding with its parent Pierer Mobility) is struggling.