A snapshot of motorcycle and ATV industry share performance across key manufacturers and major global markets at the trading week closure on Friday 13 December 2024. BDN financial editor Roger Willis reports.
USA — RUNNING OUT OF STEAM?
Big Wall Street investment banks have begun to bet that a current blockbuster rally in US stocks will soon stall in the new year, as euphoria driven by both the prospects for artificial intelligence (AI) profitability fades and disruptive “Trump trade” interventions become more frequent. Clues in the past week featured a general weakening of market indices.
Although the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite, packed with AI promise, continued to creep forward by 0.3% to yet another record, other key yardsticks declined. Blue-chip S&P 500 stocks slipped by 0.6%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P’s MidCap 400 respectively fell by 1.8% and 1.6%. On the MidCap frontline, every powersport listing apart from Harley-Davidson’s LiveWire electric spin-off was on the back foot.
| Currency: dollar | Price | Week | Month |
| Harley-Davidson | 32.59 | -1.3% | +0.7% |
| Polaris Industries | 63.10 | -0.8% | -5.6% |
| Textron | 80.92 | -2.1% | -4.7% |
| Niu Technologies | 1.84 | -3.2% | -7.5% |
| LiveWire | 5.74 | +6.3% | -4% |
EUROPE — A GIFT FROM ELON MUSK
The European Central Bank cut its benchmark deposit rate by 0.25% to 3% and kept the door open to further easing in the new year. That should have been a big uptick but other forces were also in play. Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax and the FTSE MIB index in Milan stayed narrowly positive, respectively 0.1% and 0.4% up. But although Volkswagen workers all over Germany went out on strike in opposition to pay cuts and threatened plant closures, both VW and BMW had plenty to celebrate elsewhere, boosting their share prices.
The clue was in an announcement from VW that it was offering a hugely generous 14% pay rise over four years to the workforce at its US plant in Tennessee. BMW was also apparently set to ramp up US production and wages at plants in Atlanta, Georgia, and in Mexico. In both cases, accelerating EV output was the charm.
The background to these moves was a rapid collapse in desirability of best-selling Tesla EVs, mostly in the big West Coast US States, where they had been the car of choice for liberal climate-change activists. Since Tesla supremo Elon Musk became a right-wing nutjob in bed with Donald Trump, American tree-kissers are now abandoning his wares in droves, leaving the market wide open to competition.
| Currency: euro | Price | Week | Month |
| BMW | 80.52 | +4.2% | +18.6% |
| Volkswagen | 90.70 | +5.3% | +4.6% |
| Pierer Mobility | 11.50 | +3.6% | +20.5% |
| Piaggio Group | 2.16 | +3.3% | +2.4% |
JAPAN — TARIFF WARFARE TEMPERED?
Japan’s Tokyo-Osaka Nikkei 225 market index maintained its positive outlook for a second week on the trot, rising by 1%, as mixed messages from the forthcoming Trump administration suggested a reduced impact from any possible tariff war. Shares in all of the four Japanese motorcycle brand leaders displayed plus-signs as a result.
| Currency: yen | Price | Week | Month |
| Honda | 1293.5 | +0.5% | -4.3% |
| Yamaha | 1394.5 | +6.2% | +1.9% |
| Suzuki | 1794.5 | +9.5% | +12.4% |
| Kawasaki | 6410 | +2.7% | -0.2% |
INDIA — CORRUPT COLLAR FELT
Aggressive US legal action featuring serious bribery and fraud charges against Indian multi-billionaire Gautam Adani, a close acolyte of mercurial Indian prime minister Narendra Modi, had Mumbai investors running for cover. The S&P BSE Sensex 30 and the NSE Nifty 50 market indices struggled for positivity, respectively gaining only 0.5% and 0.4% over the week’s trading. Among the five Indian motorcycle manufacturing giants, only Norton parent TVS Motor and BSA owner Mahindra stayed shiny side up, both by the slim margin of 0.3%.
| Currency: rupee | Price | Week | Month |
| Hero MotoCorp | 4575.45 | -1.2% | -0.6% |
| Bajaj Auto | 9021.40 | -0.9% | -4.9% |
| TVS Motor | 2521.90 | +0.3% | +5.2% |
| Eicher Motors | 4825.90 | -1% | -1.2% |
| Mahindra | 3081.40 | +0.3% | +9.8% |
CHINESE WHISPERS
Policy swings from the Beijing government come thick and fast. Latest wizard wheezes include deliberately allowing the Chinese currency — variously known as the yuan or remnimbi — to weaken, associated with a drive to encourage consumer spending.
Investors weren’t particularly amused. Market indices promptly retreated. Shanghai’s SSE Composite fell by 0.4% and the blue-chip CSI 300 spanning the biggest players on both Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges incurred a 1% loss. Nevertheless, six of China’s ten listed motorcycle manufacturers rose in value. CFMoto, which has a close relationship with the insolvent Pierer Mobility business in Austria — still allegedly Europe’s largest motorcycle producer — wasn’t among the winners.
| Currency: yuan | Price | Week | Month |
| Qianjiang | 16.75 | -1.2% | -4% |
| Zongshen | 27.50 | +1.1% | +16.4% |
| Sundiro | 3.77 | N/A | +1.9% |
| CETC (Jialing) | 13.75 | -1.4% | -4.7% |
| Lifan | 7.70 | +4.5% | +9.4% |
| Loncin | 7.90 | +1.4% | -2.3% |
| Linhai | 10.51 | +6.3% | +12% |
| Guangzhou Auto Group | 9.77 | +0.9% | +11.4% |
| CFMoto | 147.14 | -4.1% | -0.8% |
| Xinri E-Vehicle | 12.19 | +7.4% | +13.6% |