SHARE PRICES AND MARKET ANALYSIS

A snapshot of motorcycle and ATV industry share performance across key manufacturers and major global markets at the trading week closure on Friday 18 July 2025. BDN financial editor Roger Willis reports.

USA — TRUMP ATTACKS FEDERAL RESERVE

With tariff impacts now starting to nudge US inflation upwards, advisory pressure is growing to cut interest rates. But US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell remains reluctant to do so, increasingly annoying President Trump. Reports then emerged midweek that Trump had approached Congress to ask if he could unilaterally dismiss Powell — thereby completely demolishing the independent central banker role.

Wall Street investors were troubled by the prospect of such direct White House interference and market indices see-sawed around throughout the week. The S&P 500 eventually closed just 0.6% up, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was a marginal 0.1% down. S&P’s MidCap 400 was similarly afflicted by slight negativity. However, the NASDAQ Composite is about to benefit from some promising half-year results in the tech-giant firmament, closing a comfortable 1.5% higher.

Among forthcoming MidCap biker results, it looks like both Harley-Davidson and Indian Motorcycle parent Polaris are likely to be on the receiving end of spankings, their share prices slumping in advance. But Harley’s LiveWire electric bike spin-off was contradictory, perking up on the back of anticipated new-model revelations.

EUROPE — UNDECIDED RESPONSE TO TRUMP

European Commission presidential supremo Ursula von der Leyen has yet to decide whether she’ll fight off Trump’s imminent tariff aggression with “proportionate countermeasures”.

Against this weakening background, key eurozone market indices struggled for traction and, perhaps surprisingly, managed to stay shiny side up by narrow margins. Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax and the FTSE MIB in Milan respectively closed on 0.1% and 0.6% gains. The Wiener Börse ATX in Austria finished only positive by 0.1%. Automotive manufacturers BMW and Volkswagen, who will also face US tariff walls for motorcycling sidelines, both suffered sliding share prices.

JAPAN — POLITICAL CRISIS LOOMS

Tokyo and Osaka’s Nikkei 225 market index continued to decline, falling again by 0.6% as Japan’s Liberal Democrat Party (LDP) government shows signs of imploding. Prime minister Shigeru Ishiba’s future is now apparently on the line, after he abjectly failed to reach a trade deal with the US after extensive negotiations. Ishiba now describes the tariff threat as a “national crisis”. If the LDP loses its majority, it’s likely to mean a lot more than that.

INDIA — BIKER BOOST

While Mumbai’s BSE Sensex 30 and NSE Nifty 50 market indices continued to deteriorate, this week copping respective 0.9% and 0.7% losses, at least India’s five leading motorcycle manufacturers managed to drag themselves out of a hole and enjoyed across-the-board share price recoveries. The Indian government’s failure to conclude a satisfactory grovelling deal with the US is broadly to blame.

CHINA — THE DEFLATION CURSE

The release of China’s second-quarter growth data in the past week contained a striking dilemma. While real economic expansion was strong and steady, widespread falling prices meant nominal growth was pathetic. Solid growth reflects the expansion of Chinese industry and exports. But nominal growth is the pain workers feel in shrinking pay packets and companies see on their thinner bottom lines. It also means interest rates, when deflation is taken into account, are much higher. So the Beijing goverment has a big problem on its hands.

Given this grief, China’s stock markets face increasing pressure. In the past week, Shanghai’s all-share SSE Composite indices put on 0.7% and the blue-chip CSI 300 added 1%. But half of the ten listed Chinese motorcycle manufacturers incurred losses.