With three-quarters of 2025 now behind us, BDN has polished its crystal ball and dusted off the abacus to arrive at a prediction for the year-end tally for registrations.
As the end of 2024 approached, manufacturers began to worry about what to do with remaining Euro 5 motorcycles and scooters still populating warehouses and showrooms. The only realistic option was to pre-register any residual stock.
But how many machines did this affect? Until October 2024, the year-to-date registrations were down by 3.7% compared to 2023 – a reduction of 3770 units in real terms. This all changed as the manufacturers started to pre-register bikes in earnest. November 2024 saw a sudden surge of registrations, increasing by 9.7%, which was followed by even more as the January deadline loomed. December 2024 registrations rose by an unprecedented 114%.
A rough calculation, taking into account the market’s general slow-down, shows that around 6800 machines were pre-registered in those final two months of 2024. These excess machines would go on to make 2025 a very difficult year for dealers across the country.
So, with manufacturers and importers now making reassuring noises about the surplus stock finally having been “washed through”, can we expect sales to recover? The short answer is no.
For the year-to-date to September 2025, registrations were down by 15.2%, a unit reduction of 13,757. Even assuming that each sale of a pre-registered machine replaced the sale of a new bike, the numbers are still way down. A net loss of around 7000 new bike sales.
As we enter into the winter months, any chances of a recovery appear increasingly slim. Assuming that the Q4 figures follow the established trajectory, then registrations will be down by around 8% compared to the 2024 figure adjusted to compensate for the pre-registrations. That suggests just under 18,000 registrations in Q4, resulting in a total of around 94,000 registrations for the full year. That would be the lowest figure since 2013, and the end of a decade of over-100,000 annual sales.