Ever since the government first announced its intention to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars in July 2017, with an original target ban date of 2040, there have been moves to reverse or at least delay the decision.
Such reversals have been mooted for reasons that include poor charging infrastructure – especially in urban areas, the high costs of EV acquisition (and subsequent depreciation), and the harm caused to traditional European manufacturing, along with the allied boost to Chinese EV manufacturers.
It doesn’t help consumer demand that governments flip-flopped over the subject: In February 2020, Boris Johnson announced the ban would be brought forward to 2035 and included hybrid vehicles in the proposal. November 2020 saw the date accelerated to 2030 for new petrol and diesel cars. In September 2023, Rishi Sunak announced a delay, pushing the ban date for new petrol and diesel cars back to 2035. And after its election, the Labour government reinstated the original 2030 ban date for new petrol and diesel cars, with new hybrid sales expected to be phased out by 2035.
Labour, in its November budget, notably reduced the financial incentive to buy electric vehicles through a new pay-per-mile tax from 2028, which will include mileage driven overseas.
On top of all this is the cost to charge vehicles. It’s not as cheap as some make out, and energy firm Octopus recently moved to restrict the hours at which vehicles can be charged at lower rates. Combine this with falling prices at the pump and EVs are not as attractive as they once were.
Now, recent reports that Europe is planning to push back the ban on sales of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to 2040, have partly come true.
Foretold by the likes of FleetCheck, AutoExpress and The Times, the ban has been watered down so that 90% of new cars sold from 2035 will have to be zero-emission, rather than 100%. Also, manufacturers must compensate for the emissions by using low-carbon steel made in the EU in the vehicles they produce. The EU is also expecting an increase in the use of biofuels and so-called e-fuels to compensate for the extra emissions created by petrol and diesel vehicles.
Clearly, this change is likely to force the hand of the UK government to follow suit and so push back its own petrol and diesel ban.
But even if the Labour government won’t change the date, the Conservatives recently stated that they will drop the ban if elected.
As to why a change has been called for, the answer lies in the comment at the end of the second paragraph of this story.
The EU has come under pressure to change course from those with strong automotive input into their economies – Germany, Italy, Portugal, Slovakia and Bulgaria. Those governments prefer a technology-neutral target that would mandate a 90% cut in car CO2 emissions by 2035 and a 100% target by 2040.
The point of the proposed change is that manufacturers would have flexibility on how they hit the target.
It also needs to be noted that in the US, Donald Trump has been unravelling policies that encouraged American consumers to buy electric cars.
But not everyone wants a reversal or delay in the ICE ban. Not unsurprisingly, it’s those who have spent time and money developing the technology and so are further into the ‘new’ technology than others. Indeed, Volvo’s CEO, Hakan Samuelsson, recently commented: “I don’t see the logic in slowing down”.
Polestar, Europe’s only all-electric car manufacturer, is of the same view. Michael Lohscheller, chief executive, has previously said: “Pausing 2035 is just a bad, bad idea. I have no other words for that.”
For Lohscheller, apart from protecting his own company’s investment, there are concerns that Europe will just miss out: “The Chinese will not pause. They will take over. If Brussels pauses this [target] and says: ‘Stop, we will give you another five years,’ they are really putting hundreds and thousands of jobs at risk.”
Ultimately, ICE-powered vehicles are on the way out. It’s just a question of when.