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HomeNEWSFINANCIAL2 JANUARY — WEEKLY MOTORCYCLE INDUSTRY SHARE PRICE GUIDE

2 JANUARY — WEEKLY MOTORCYCLE INDUSTRY SHARE PRICE GUIDE

A snapshot of global bike and ATV industry share performance at the trading closure on Friday 2 January 2015.

Although obscure religious festivities foreshortened trading on Western developed markets during the final full week of December, these were sensibly ignored in Asia — where it was business as usual. However, transaction levels and risk appetite were muted on most markets as the year staggered to a close in the following five days.

Against a background of weaker US manufacturing growth data, a warning of dire deflation dangers from European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi and plummeting oil prices (benchmark Brent crude has now fallen by more than half in the past few months and sank to a new low of $55 a barrel as the New Year dawned), most related weekly indices were flat or negative.

Reflecting soft S&P 500 and FTSE Eurofirst 300 figures in the US and Europe as investors waved goodbye to 2014, Harley-Davidson’s share price was stagnant, Polaris declined and all the big European motorcycle-related corporates fell, with one exception. That was Piaggio. Apparentally hope springs eternal in Italy and Europe’s biggest powered two-wheeler producer entered 2015 actually adding a single percentage point by Friday. All four Japanese bike giants also lost ground, tracking US gloom.

India was also circumspect about prospects, perhaps surprisingly given it is an economic beneficiary of cheaper oil. Bombay Stock Exchange consensus on leading motorcycle brands was timorous, with minor weekly improvements for Hero and TVS and falls for Bajaj, Eicher and Mahindra. China wasn’t a good place to be holding bike stocks either, with all ten listed bike manufacturers heading downwards.

Reviewing respective market performance for the past 12 months, New York’s S&P 500 grew by nearly 12 per cent, but top American bike makers substantially underperformed that. The Eurofirst 300 and Germany’s Xetra Dax were puny by comparision, against a background of eurozone woes, adding only numbers bracketing four per cent. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 stacked on eight per cent. Asia generally had a much better year with the Shanghai Composite climbing by 54 per cent (with 20 per cent of that attributable to December’s bubble) and India’s BSE Sensex 30 boasting a 32 per cent gain — matched or bettered by its boomimg motorcycle industry participants.

AND THE WINNERS WERE…

For investors judiciously assembling a dream worldwide motorcycle stock portfolio at the beginning of 2014, there were magnificent annual returns on investment to be trousered by the time 2015 arrived on our calendar. But forget blue-chips like Harley, which would have lost you three per cent, and look to Europe and Asia for the six golden shares really worth owning.

Despite a free float of only around two per cent of issued equity, Austria’s KTM was still a splendid earner if you could get into it, more than doubling in value with a 125 per cent yearly rise. However, the finest action was to be found in India, where TVS Motor and Eicher more than tripled, respectively up by 241 per cent and and 205 per cent. Maharashtra Scooters also deserved attention, as this Bajaj-controlled assembly operation’s share price blossomed by 150 per cent. In China, Honda associate Jialing was the stock of choice, posting a 131 per cent leap to double your money (and the rest). Hyosung manufacturer KR Motors in South Korea similarly did the honours, up by approaching 140 per cent.

Looking to Japan, though, Yamaha was definitely worthy of note too. As the only member of the Japanese Big Four to be primarily dependent on its motorcycle production for prosperity, it can be taken as a bellwether for global premier-league industry health and — in that context — offers a cheerful omen for the year ahead. While an annual return moving towards 60 per cent may seen modest in comparison with the aforementioned star turns, it was twice as good as Suzuki or Kawasaki managed and put Honda, which retreated by 17 per cent, in the shade.       

 
Price (P) High (H) Low (L) Change (C) 52-week range (R) One-year return (Y)  

USA (US dollar)

Harley-Davidson    P 65.79  H 66.58  L 64.89  C -0.18%  R 74.13 – 54.22  Y -2.94%

Polaris    P 148.83  H 152.59  L 148.11  C -1.59%  R 159.33 – 118.80  Y +4.32%

Arctic Cat    P 34.51  H 35.71  L 33.82  C -2.79%  R 59.73 – 30.11  Y -39.51%

US Highland    P 0.51  H 0.51  L 0.51  C N/A  R 0.60 – 0.13  Y +88.89%

Viper    P 0.0012  H 0.0012  L 0.0012  C N/A  R 0.05 – 0.0012  Y -88%

Notes: Polaris makes Victory and Indian motorcycles, ATVs, snowmobiles, quadricycles and EVs. Arctic Cat makes ATVs and snowmobiles. US Highland makes a range of four-stroke dirt bikes. Viper Powersports produces the Diamondback Super Cruiser with a British-built 2490cc Ilmor engine.


CANADA (Canadian dollar)

BRP    P 24.20  H 24.25  L 24.00  C -0.04%  R 31.98 – 20.67  Y -18.93%

Notes: Bombardier Recreational Products makes Can-Am ATVs and Spyder road trikes, as well as Ski-Doo snowmobiles, Sea-Doo personal watercraft and Rotax engines for a range of applications including motorcycles — most recently Buell’s EBR superbike.


EUROPE (euro)

BMW    P 88.03  H 89.80  L 87.38  C -1.94%  R 96.10 – 74.74  Y +8.07%

Daimler    P 68.622  H 70.00  L 68.16  C -0.5%  R 71.27 – 55.10  Y +14.89%

Piaggio    P 2.40  H 2.41  L 2.37  C -0.41%  R 3.092 – 1.93  Y -2.68%

KTM    P 138.40  H 139.70  L 138.40  C +2.52%  R 141.00 – 61.00  Y +124.98%

VW    P 177.677  H 181.203  L 176.00  C -1.35%  R 198.43 – 147.35  Y -5.96%

Notes: Daimler has a 25 per cent stake in MV Agusta through its AMG-Mercedes subsidiary. Volkswagen is the owner of Ducati Motor Holding


INDIA (rupee)

Hero    P 3098.10  H 3119.00  L 3090.55  C -0.24%  R 3271.80 – 1907.00  Y +52.91%

Bajaj    P 2451.75  H 2476.40  L 2432.00  C -0.02%  R 2695.00 – 1793.20  Y +32.15%

TVS    P 267.45  H 280.75  L 266.70  C -3.64%  R 280.75 – 64.00  Y +241.27%  

Eicher    P 15,081.95  H 15,460.00  L 14,978.05  C -1.18%  R 15,785.00 – 4401.10  Y +205.18%

Mahindra    P 1224.65  H 1243.70  L 1222.00  C -1%  R 1433.70 – 846.25  Y +37.64%

Maharashtra    P 995.05  H 1002.00  L 990.00  C -0.06%  R 1124.00 – 403.00  Y +150.02%

Scooters India    P 32.95  H 35.25  L 32.00  C -1.93%  R 38.85 – 14.20  Y +84.08%

Notes: Hero MotoCorp is a former Honda JV partner. Bajaj has technical partnerships with KTM and Kawasaki. TVS is a former Suzuki JV partner. Bajaj and TVS also both export. Eicher makes the Royal Enfield brand. Mahindra & Mahindra has a technical partnership with Taiwanese brand SYM and an own-brand motorcycle range. Maharashtra Scooters assembles CKD scooter kits manufactured by Bajaj, which is also a substantial shareholder in the company. Scooters India manufactured Lambretta scooters until 1997 but now only makes Vikram three-wheeled taxis and light trucks. The Indian government has a majority stake.


PAKISTAN (Pakistani rupee)

Atlas Honda    P 330.00  H 334.00  L 326.15  C -1.79%  R 355.57 – 209.00  Y N/A

Pak Suzuki    P 380.00  H 385.00  L 376.00  C -0.86%  R 414.50 – 150.11  Y N/A

Notes: Atlas Honda and Pak Suzuki are JV motorcycle assembly and distribution partners.


JAPAN (yen)

Honda    P 3526  H 3604  L 3523  C -2.06%  R 4320 – 3239  Y -16.56%

Yamaha    P 2442  H 2455  L 2425  C +0.08%  R 2655 – 1265  Y +57.46%

Suzuki    P 3640  H 3694.5  L 3640  C -1.46%  R 4041 – 2497  Y +29.74%

Kawasaki    P 553  H 561  L 553  C -1.43%  R 589 – 350  Y +28.27%


CHINA (yuan)

Qianjiang    P 6.08  H 6.13  L 6.01  C +1.67%  R 7.89 – 4.76  Y +19.92%

Qingqi    P 5.90  H 5.98  L 5.57  C +3.69%  R 7.34 – 3.34  Y N/A

Zongshen    P 7.97  H 7.99  L 7.81  C +1.27%  R 10.82 – 3.92  Y N/A   

Sundiro    P 5.12  H 5.13  L 5.05  C +1.59%  R 5.95 – 3.48  Y +37.28%

Jialing    P 7.45  H 7.60  L 7.26  C +0.13%  R 9.28 – 3.01  Y +130.65%  

Lifan    P 8.86  H 8.92  L 8.70  C +0.23%  R 10.64 – 5.65  Y +46.63%
 
Loncin    P 13.44  H 13.55  L 12.88  C +3.23%  R 18.81 – 8.24  Y +51.74%

Linhai    P 8.04  H 8.12  L 7.97  C +0.37%  R 11.39 – 4.80  Y +58.11%
 


CHINA (Hong Kong dollar)

Jianshe    P 7.40  H 7.50  L 7.30  C +1.09%  R 9.40 – 5.28  Y +36.03%  

Guangzhou Auto    P 7.16  H 7.24  L 7.06  C +1.42%  R 9.87 – 6.72  Y -12.41%

Notes: Qianjiang owns both the exported Keeway brand and the formerly Italian Benelli brand. Qingqi is a Suzuki JV partner, a Peugeot scooter contractor and also makes Qingqi and Sinnis branded bikes. Zongshen produces own-brand bikes and proprietary engines, and has JV partnerships with Piaggio, producing scooters, and Harley-Davidson, making parts. Sundiro is the biggest Honda JV bike partner in China. Jialing makes and exports own-brand bikes using Honda licensed technology and is a Honda JV power products partner. Lifan makes and exports own-brand bikes, and distributes MV Agusta products in China. Loncin is a Kawasaki JV partner and OEM engine contractor to BMW Motorrad. Linhai and Jianshe are Yamaha JV partners. Guangzhou Automobile Group is the parent of Honda JV partner and own-brand bike manufacturer Wuyang. It also has JV car production partnerships with Honda and Toyota.


VIETNAM (Hong Kong dollar)

VMEPH    P 0.445  H 0.455  L 0.445  C N/A  R 0.69 – 0.40  Y -15.74%

Notes: Vietnam Manufacturing & Export Processing Holdings is the third-largest Vietnamese scooter and motorcycle manufacturer. It is a JV partnership with Taiwanese brand SYM. VMEPH is headquartered in Hong Kong and listed on both the HK and Taipei stock exchanges.


TAIWAN (Taiwanese dollar)

Sanyang    P 28.50  H 28.85  L 28.50  C -0.35%  R 63.00 – 25.20  Y -38.49%

Notes: Sanyang Industry is the leading Taiwanese powered two-wheeler manufacturer through its widely-exported SYM brand.


MALAYSIA (ringgit)

Oriental Holdings    P 6.94  H 7.00  L 6.91  C -2.12%  R 8.40 – 6.48  Y -16.54%

Hong Leong    P 4.46  H 4.47  L 4.46  C -0.67%  R 7.543 – 3.95  Y +13.89%

Notes: Oriental Holdings is a Honda JV partner. Hong Leong Industries is a Yamaha JV partner and former owner of the German MZ concern.


INDONESIA (rupiah)

Astra    P 7400  H 7475  L 7375  C -0.34%  R 8050 – 6225  Y +12.97%

Notes: Astra International is a Honda JV partner. Its controlling shareholder is Jardine Matheson Holdings, a British-managed conglomerate domiciled in Hong Kong.


SOUTH KOREA (won)

KR    P 1045  H 1075  L 1015  C +0.97%  R 1495 – 425  Y +137.5%

Daelim    P 64,500  H 65,500  L 63,600  C -1.98%  R 94,700 – 62,700  Y -27.93%

Notes: KR Motors (formerly S&T) manufactures Hyosung-branded bikes and ATVs, exporting to the US, Europe including the UK and elsewhere. Daelim Industrial is a diversified conglomerate which retains a controlling 59 per cent stake in Daelim Motor, the largest motorcycle and scooter manufacturer in Korea. (The remainder is British-owned, by the private equity arm of Standard Chartered Bank.)

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