A snapshot of global bike and ATV industry share performance at the trading week closure on Friday 30 September 2016, by BDN financial editor Roger Willis
Pertinent factors affecting markets worldwide in the past week were a deep sense of unease over the eurozone banking system and, as ever, the price of oil. The former hung on Deutsche Bank’s parlous condition while the latter was all about a putative OPEC accord to cut oil production, thereby promoting price stabilisation and a measure of recovery.
In the end, German bankers were given a temporary reprieve. The Saudi-orchestrated oil cartel wasn’t, though. After an initial surge in benchmark crude prices, scepticism set in on the basis that any final OPEC agreement had been kicked into the long grass until yet another meeting in November. So both equities and currency translations continued to fluctuate with wild abandon.
On an average weekly basis, Western developed markets were pretty stagnant, concealing sentiments that had waxed and waned. New York’s S&P 500 index managed a puny overall gain of 0.19%. Harley-Davidson’s share price similarly festered, adding just 0.1%. Polaris, which has suffered seriously in recent times, actually achieved a 3.4% recovery.
On our side of the Atlantic, the eurozone’s Eurofirst 300 was set for a significant loss during most of the week. But it rallied strongly on Friday, led by a 6.4% Deutsche Bank stock rebound, and ended only 0.65% down. The three big German automotives more-or-less followed that scenario. BMW fell by 0.9%, Daimler lost 1% and VW was 0.4% in arrears — all of them benefiting from a sharp lift on Friday to stay respectable. KTM was absolutely flat on almost non-existent trading in its shares. Piaggio got the short straw as worst-performing European bike stock, sinking by 2.9%.
News of Friday’s slightly better fortunes for Deutsche Bank arrived too late to dispel worries in Tokyo, given the wide time difference. “Safe-haven” yen forex rates were still moving in a negative direction, impacting exporters, and the Nikkei 225 closed 1.82% down. Honda, Suzuki and Kawasaki took a dive but Yamaha escaped, its shares rising by 2.1%.
Among emerging countries, India got its knickers in a twist about OPEC deal prospects — any oil cost increase likelihood being a major issue for such a massive energy importer. The Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex 30 dropped by 2.8%, hitting virtually all motorcycle manufacturers. TVS was alone in bucking that trend, stacking on 4.4%, as the roll-out of its BMW Motorrad production contract finally reaches retail fruition in dealerships across the globe.
The Chinese were gloomy for different reasons, as concerns about China’s dodgy corporate debt mountain re-emerged in headlines. The Shanghai Composite index declined by 0.95%, taking a six-strong consensus of indigenous bike producers with it. Inevitably, sainted Qianjiang wasn’t among them. The Benelli parent continued its inexorable rise, adding 4.3%. The company now boasts an annual rolling return on investment of just over 175%. Nice stock to own if you got in early. More curiously, Jialing and Jianshe also claimed sudden stardom status as aberrant hot tickets, with respective 12.7% and 8.4% upward lunges.
Price (P) Daily change (C) 52-week range (R) One-year investment return (Y)
USA (US dollar)
Harley-Davidson P 52.59 C +0.21% R 57.33 – 36.36 Y -1.34%
Polaris P 77.44 C +2.61% R 124.39 – 67.80 Y -33.07%
Arctic Cat P 15.49 C +7.49% R 25.60 – 8.90 Y -30.69%
US Highland P 0.0004 C -2.5% R 0.43 – 0.0003 Y N/A
Confederate P 0.05 C N/A R 0.33 – 0.05 Y N/A
Notes: Polaris makes Victory and Indian bikes, ATVs, snowmobiles, quadricycles and EVs. Arctic Cat makes ATVs and snowmobiles. US Highland makes off-road bikes. Confederate Motors makes Combat Fighter cruisers.
CANADA (Canadian dollar)
BRP P 25.67 C -3.02% R 27.30 – 13.76 Y +5.9%
Notes: Bombardier Recreational Products makes Can-Am ATVs and Spyder road trikes, Ski-Doo snowmobiles, Sea-Doo PWCs and Rotax proprietary engines.
TAIWAN (Taiwanese dollar)
Sanyang P 20.80 C -0.72% R 23.90 – 19.80 Y -6.23%
Notes: Sanyang Motor (SYM) is the leading Taiwanese bike manufacturer.
VIETNAM (Hong Kong dollar)
VMEPH P 0.44 C +1.15% R 0.53 – 0.36 Y -4.35%
Notes: Vietnam Manufacturing & Export Processing Holdings, a JV partner of SYM, is the third-largest Vietnamese bike manufacturer.
INDONESIA (rupiah)
Astra P 8250 C -4.9% R 8875 – 5075 Y +64.85%
Indomobil P 1450 C +7.01% R 3100 – 1250 Y -46.92%
Notes: Astra International is a Honda JV partner. Its controlling shareholder is British conglomerate Jardine Matheson. Indomobil Sukses Internasional is a Suzuki JV partner.
EUROPE (euro)
BMW P 74.75 C +2.75% R 104.85 – 63.38 Y -1.76%
Daimler P 62.66 C +2.07% R 85.50 – 50.83 Y +0.86%
VW P 128.51 C +3.06% R 146.50 – 95.00 Y +26.09%
KTM P 3.95 C N/A R 4.09 – 3.14 Y +21.03%
Piaggio P 1.66 C +0.6% R 2.50 – 1.45 Y -20.12%
Notes: Daimler’s AMG-Mercedes subsidiary has a 25% stake in MV Agusta. Volkswagen Group owns Ducati. KTM owner Cross has changed its name and ticker to KTM Industries.
PAKISTAN (Pakistani rupee)
Atlas Honda P 485.00 C -0.41% R 507.00 – 320.05 Y N/A
Pak Suzuki P 577.50 C +2.59% R 590.00 – 363.01 Y N/A
Notes: Atlas Honda and Pak Suzuki are JV assembly partners.
INDIA (rupee)
Hero P 3413.70 C -0.42% R 3740.00 – 2375.00 Y +44.85%
Bajaj P 2827.60 C -0.66% R 3122.00 – 2171.95 Y +25.09%
TVS P 365.85 C +4.71% R 368.60 – 227.40 Y +60.72%
Eicher P 24,827.80 C -0.36% R 26,641.30 – 14,800.00 Y +36.52%
Mahindra P 1405.70 C +3.03% R 1508.95 – 1091.25 Y +13.39%
Maharashtra P 1454.60 C +0.71% R 1694.95 – 942.00 Y +54.96%
Scooters India P 40.85 C -4.89% R 44.85 – 22.65 Y +22.31%
Notes: Hero MotoCorp is a former Honda JV partner. Bajaj has a major shareholding in KTM and ties with it and Kawasaki. TVS is a former Suzuki JV partner and BMW Motorrad contractor. Eicher makes the Royal Enfield brand. Mahindra & Mahindra has an own-brand bike range and a majority stake in French scooter brand Peugeot. Maharashtra Scooters assembles CKD scooter kits manufactured by Bajaj. Scooters India makes Vikram three-wheeled taxis and light trucks. The Indian government has a majority stake.
JAPAN (yen)
Honda P 2887.5 C -2.28% R 4142 – 2417 Y -18.37%
Yamaha P 2020 C -2.18% R 3045 – 1409 Y -17.82%
Suzuki P 3360 C -1.84% R 4103 – 2450 Y -7.53%
Kawasaki P 310 C -1.9% R 502 – 257 Y -23.05%
CHINA (yuan)
Qianjiang P 18.63 C -0.37% R 19.49 – 6.71 Y +175.18%
Zongshen P 10.16 C -0.78% R 18.20 – 8.08 Y -3.24%
Sundiro P 9.17 C +0.77% R 9.94 – 5.53 Y N/A
Jialing P 8.03 C +10% R 10.99 – 5.67 Y +8.37%
Lifan P 9.53 C -0.1% R 19.47 – 8.05 Y -13.79%
Loncin P 19.95 C -0.15% R 25.52 – 14.80 Y +27.52%
Linhai P 13.08 C -0.91% R 14.71 – 8.41 Y N/A
GAG P 22.30 C +0.81% R 26.27 – 17.98 Y +23.85%
CHINA (Hong Kong dollar)
Jianshe P 15.38 C +8.08% R 19.20 – 11.25 Y N/A
Notes: Qianjiang owns Keeway and formerly Italian Benelli. Zongshen makes own-brand bikes and proprietary engines, and has JV partnerships with Piaggio, (scooters), and Harley-Davidson (parts). Sundiro is a Honda JV partner. Jialing makes own-brand bikes using Honda licensed technology. Lifan makes own-brand bikes and distributes MV Agusta in China. Loncin is a Kawasaki JV partner and OEM engine contractor to BMW Motorrad. Linhai and Jianshe are Yamaha JV partners. Guangzhou Automobile Group (GAG) is the parent of Honda JV partner and own-brand bike manufacturer Wuyang.
MALAYSIA (ringgit)
Oriental Holdings P 6.96 C -0.43% R 7.52 – 6.48 Y +2.66%
Hong Leong P 9.25 C N/A R 9.80 – 5.25 Y +72.99%
Notes: Oriental Holdings is a Honda JV partner. Hong Leong Industries is a Yamaha JV partner.
SOUTH KOREA (won)
KR P 1060 C -0.93% R 1770 – 905 Y +4.95%
Daelim P 82,900 C -0.6% R 94,300 – 62,000 Y +20.68%
Notes: KR Motors makes Hyosung bikes and ATVs. Daelim Industrial retains a controlling 59% stake in Daelim Motor, the largest bike manufacturer in Korea. (The remainder is British, owned by Standard Chartered Bank.)