8 MAY: WEEKLY MOTORCYCLE INDUSTRY SHARE PRICES

A snapshot of global bike and ATV industry share performance at the trading week closure on Friday 8 May, 2015.

China has attracted an increasing amount of attention during its climb towards status as the world’s biggest economy. But everything is not going to plan. Chinese exports are declining sharply — down by 15% in March and then 6.4% in April. Growth slowed to a weak (by Chinese standards) 7% in the first quarter of 2015 and was at its lowest level for 24 years in 2014.

Against that background, local investor enthusiasm has swung from a now-burst property bubble to equities markets, generally fuelled with borrowed money. So now we have a stock bubble instead. Shanghai’s Composite index has more than doubled in value over the past 12 months. Punters treat the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong exchanges like casinos. Share hyping and deliberately misleading corporate results announcements are rampant.

China’s motorcycle industry is a grubby example of such practices, which are now on the receiving end of aggressive punishment by regulatory authorities. By the end of last week, trading in four of the seven yuan-quoted bike manufacturers on mainland stock exchanges — Qianjiang, Sundiro, Lifan and Linhai — had been suspended pending investigation.

For others, prices continued to go up and down like the proverbial stripper’s knickers. Zongshen posted yet another stupendous weekly rise, surging by 19%. It has now almost quadrupled in value over the rolling year. Jialing, on the other hand, suffered an abrupt weekly fall of 10%.

Elsewhere, prospects were brighter. US economic sentiment was boosted by positive monthly employment data. New York’s S&P 500 index rose by 0.36% week-on-week. Harley-Davidson and Polaris gained on the back of that. Interestingly, though, the worst S&P performer was keen motorcycle sports sponsor Monster Energy, after it reported a 95% plummet in quartely profit caused by distribution contract terminations in the wake of Coca Cola becoming a major shareholder in the business.

Europe cheered up too. The UK’s surprise Tory election majority lifted London’s FTSE 100 on Friday and both Frankfurt’s Dax Xtra and the Eurofirst 300 were jacked up by favourable euro-dollar forex movement. As exporters, both BMW and Daimler benefited, although VW remained flat — currently a rudderless ship after the sudden departure of its company chairman. Piaggio was also flat. With typically devious Italian aplomb, Piaggio’s less-than-exciting quarterly results statement wasn’t released until after the Milan exchange had closed for the weekend at lunchtime on Friday. Any pain will no doubt be felt in the following week.

Tokyo experienced thin trading in a week seriously shortened by public holidays. Its Nikkei 225 fell by 0.78% but that didn’t really affect Japan’s big-four bike producers. Honda and Yamaha shares rose, Suzuki was flat and only Kawasaki dropped marginally. India was a mixed bag. Among the motorcycling majors, Hero and TVS weakened while Bajaj and Eicher improved.          

Price (P) Daily change (C) 52-week range (R) One-year investment return (Y)  

USA (US dollar)

Harley-Davidson    P 57.23  C +0.65%  R 74.05 – 54.22  Y -19.28%

Polaris    P 143.01  C +2.15%  R 159.33 – 124.73  Y +9.52%

Arctic Cat    P 35.50  C +0.8%  R 41.14 – 26.00  Y -6.75%

US Highland    P 0.61  C +1.67%  R 0.61 – 0.13  Y N/A

Viper    P 0.0015  C N/A  R 0.023 – 0.0012  Y N/A

Notes: Polaris makes Victory and Indian bikes, ATVs, snowmobiles, quadricycles and EVs. Arctic Cat makes ATVs and snowmobiles. US Highland makes off-road bikes. Viper Powersports makes the Diamondback Super Cruiser.

CANADA (Canadian dollar)

BRP    P 27.07  C +1.77%  R 30.15 – 20.67  Y -9.8%

Notes: Bombardier Recreational Products makes Can-Am ATVs, Spyder road trikes, Ski-Doo snowmobiles, Sea-Doo PWCs and Rotax proprietary engines.

TAIWAN (Taiwanese dollar)

Sanyang    P 26.60  C -0.75%  R 33.60 – 25.20  Y -3.62%

Notes: Sanyang Motor (SYM) is the leading Taiwanese bike manufacturer. 

VIETNAM (Hong Kong dollar)

VMEPH    P 0.58  C -1.69%  R 0.74 – 0.40  Y +23.4%

Notes: Vietnam Manufacturing & Export Processing Holdings, a JV partner of SYM, is the third-largest Vietnamese bike manufacturer. 

INDONESIA (rupiah)

Astra    P 7400  C +2.78%  R 8575 – 6325  Y +4.17%

Indomobil    P 3950  C -3.07%  R 5025 – 3050  Y -16.84%

Notes: Astra International is a Honda JV partner. Its controlling shareholder is British conglomerate Jardine Matheson. Indomobil Sukses Internasional is a Suzuki JV partner.

EUROPE (euro)

BMW    P 109.11  C +4.31%  R 123.75 – 74.74  Y +27.05%

Daimler    P 87.83  C +3.17%  R 96.07 – 55.10  Y +39.56%

VW    P 225.27  C +2.67%  R 254.99 – 147.35  Y +24.58%

KTM    P 119.50  C +0.42%  R 141.00 – 79.00  Y +44.92%

Piaggio    P 2.734  C +1.64%  R 3.00 – 1.93  Y +2.07%

Notes: Daimler’s AMG-Mercedes subsidiary has a 25% stake in MV Agusta. Volkswagen owns Ducati and a 20% stake in Suzuki.

PAKISTAN (Pakistani rupee)

Atlas Honda    P 359.00  C +3.28%  R 409.00 – 209.00  Y N/A

Pak Suzuki    P 421.00  C -1.75%  R 450.85 – 187.02  Y N/A

Notes: Atlas Honda and Pak Suzuki are JV assembly partners.

INDIA (rupee)

Hero    P 2300.65  C -2.29%  R 3271.80 – 2110.00  Y +7.59%

Bajaj    P 2123.05  C +2.67%  R 2695.00 – 1840.10  Y +12.98%

TVS    P 220.60  C +2.46%  R 322.30 – 104.40  Y +98.5% 

Eicher    P 15,781.15  C +6.58%  R 17,200.00 – 6151.15  Y +144.35%

Mahindra    P 1180.35  C +0.82%  R 1433.70 – 1060.57  Y +8.32%

Maharashtra    P 868.50  C -0.02%  R 1124.00 – 473.40  Y +83.07%

Scooters India    P 29.30  C +4.46%  R 38.85 – 17.35  Y +64.15%

Notes: Hero MotoCorp is a former Honda JV partner. Bajaj a major shareholding in KTM and ties with it and Kawasaki. TVS is a former Suzuki JV partner. Eicher makes the Royal Enfield brand. Mahindra & Mahindra has an own-brand bike range and a majority stake in French scooter brand Peugeot. Maharashtra Scooters assembles CKD scooter kits manufactured by Bajaj. Scooters India makes Vikram three-wheeled taxis and light trucks. The Indian government has a majority stake.

JAPAN (yen)

Honda    P 4183.5  C +2.31%  R 4400 – 3239  Y +28.37%

Yamaha    P 2835  C +0.53%  R 3145 – 1506  Y +80.76%

Suzuki    P 3864  C +0.21%  R 4100 – 2526  Y +49.76%

Kawasaki    P 602  C -1.31%  R 647 – 351  Y +62.61%

CHINA (yuan)

Qianjiang    P 9.58  C N/A  R 9.92 – 5.12  Y N/A [Trading suspended]

Zongshen    P 23.74  C +4.17%  R 25.79 – 4.37  Y +376.71%  

Sundiro    P 7.40  C N/A  R 7.95 – 3.65  Y N/A [Trading suspended]

Jialing    P 9.50  C +2.37%  R 11.86 – 4.03  Y +132.27% 

Lifan    P 14.65  C N/A  R 15.03 – 6.33  Y N/A [Trading suspended]

Loncin    P 20.38  C +3.98%  R 24.25 – 8.24  Y +134.28%

Linhai    P 13.37  C N/A  R 14.29 – 5.47  Y N/A [Trading suspended]

CHINA (Hong Kong dollar)

Jianshe    P 11.55  C +7.14%  R 11.98 – 5.41  Y +103.35% 

Guangzhou Auto    P 7.96  C +0.38%  R 9.87 – 6.58  Y +7.78%

Notes: Qianjiang owns Keeway and formerly Italian Benelli. Zongshen makes own-brand bikes and proprietary engines, and has JV partnerships with Piaggio, (scooters), and Harley-Davidson (parts). Sundiro is a Honda JV partner. Jialing makes own-brand bikes using Honda licensed technology. Lifan makes own-brand bikes and distributes MV Agusta in China. Loncin is a Kawasaki JV partner and OEM engine contractor to BMW Motorrad. Linhai and Jianshe are Yamaha JV partners. Guangzhou Automobile Group is the parent of Honda JV partner and own-brand bike manufacturer Wuyang. 

MALAYSIA (ringgit)

Oriental Holdings    P 7.88  C N/A  R 8.10 – 6.48  Y +2.48%

Hong Leong    P 4.81  C +0.42%  R 7.543 – 3.95  Y -8.88%

Notes: Oriental Holdings is a Honda JV partner. Hong Leong Industries is a Yamaha JV partner.

SOUTH KOREA (won)

KR    P 1250  C +2.88%  R 1600 – 780  Y +10.62%

Daelim    P 81,200  C -2.4%  R 94,300 – 50,400  Y +2.42%

Notes: KR Motors makes Hyosung bikes and ATVs. Daelim Industrial retains a controlling 59% stake in Daelim Motor, the largest bike manufacturer in Korea. (The remainder is British, owned by Standard Chartered Bank.)