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SHARE PRICES AND MARKET ANALYSIS

A snapshot of bike and ATV industry share performance across key manufacturers and major global markets at the trading week closure on Friday 30 September 2022. BDN financial editor Roger Willis reports.

USA — NO MERCY FOR MARKETS

American equities trading volatility increased, against a background of rapidly rising US interest rates to counter inflation and a darkening economic outlook. Matters were made considerably worse after the inept new UK government had announced £45bn in unfunded tax cuts. That unleashed a currency crisis, with the pound sinking close to dollar parity, and a massive sell-off in UK Treasury debt, which almost pushed British pensions providers to the point of insolvency.

Only an equally massive Bank of England bond-buying intervention temporarily stopped the rot. Nevertheless, global stocks and bond markets were afflicted by contagious turmoil. Wall Street was left on course for its longest streak of quarterly losses since the 2008 financial crisis.

New York market indices continued to decline. The blue-chip S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both finished on 2.9% weekly losses. S&P’s MidCap 400 fell by 1.6% and the NASDAQ Composite closed 2.7% down.

HOGOMETER

Harley-Davidson certainly wasn’t immune to what its CEO Jochen Zeitz described as a “challenging environment” associated to apparently insoluble supply-chain woes. The company’s shares retreated by 1.1% on Monday and 0.1% on Tuesday. A minor rally on Wednesday lifted the price by 0.3% and then the rot set in. Losses of 3.6% and 2.7% followed on Thursday and Friday.

Zeitz also indulged in bell-ringing festivities at the New York Stock Exchange, to officially greet the launch of his NYSE listing for Harley’s hived-off LiveWire electric bike business. Sadly, this LVWR ticker then spent the week plunging in value.

Currency: dollarPriceWeekMonth
Harley-Davidson34.88-7.1%-8.7%
Polaris Industries95.65-2.8%-14.8%
Textron58.26-2%-5.8%
Ideanomics

(Energica)

0.28-20%-54.1%
Niu Technologies4.10-9.9%-23.9%
LiveWire7.18-23.8%N/A

EUROPE — BLAME IT ON THE BRITS

The events initiated by UK chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s disastrous “mini-budget” seriously destabilised European equities and bond investors’ confidence too. Market indices remained solidly negative. In Germany, Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax fell by 1.4% and Italy’s FTSE MIB in Milan closed 2% down.

Motorcycle-related stocks were all on the back foot. Effectively, KTM, Husqvarna and GasGas parent Pierer took the hardest hammering. Volkswagen shares appeared to be more grievously afflicted but that was absolutely nothing to do with bikes. It was simply the reaction to VW subsidiary Porsche being spun off into a separate listing. A 25% equity stake was then sold off to raise £17.1bn in funding for the group’s electrification programme.

Currency: euroPriceWeekMonth
BMW69.99-1.9%-6.8%
Volkswagen168.65-11.3%-11.6%
Pierer Mobility56.80-8.8%-5.5%
Piaggio Group2.08-2.3%-15.8%

JAPAN — BACK TO THE DRAWING BOARD

The Japanese government’s move to strengthen the yen by selling around $20bn from its US dollar reserves backfired and the yen ended up pretty much where it had started. Furthermore, an ongoing monetary policy squabble between politicians and the Bank of Japan grew in intensity, souring investment prospects.

Reflecting this divisive mood, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 stock index plunged by 4.5%, a largest weekly decline for any major exchange worldwide. The value of exporting motorcycle-related brands plummeted further. The fairly imminent publication of fiscal half-year results by Honda, Kawasaki and Suzuki, plus Q3 data from Yamaha, also stretched investors’ nerves, given they are likely to expose some of the unrequited challenges being felt elsewhere.

Currency: yenPriceWeekMonth
Honda3137-9.8%-14.6%
Yamaha2707-5.9%-4.9%
Suzuki4481-7.7%-9.4%
Kawasaki2187-11.9%-16%

INDIA — NOTHING TO CELEBRATE

The approaching Indian festive season, culminating in Diwali, should be building up towards a consumer frenzy by now. But higher-value retail sales are stumbling. So Mumbai’s BSE Sensex stock index remained in negativity for a third consecutive week, 1.2% down as investor confidence ebbed. The progress of motorcycle manufacturer stocks were all written in red ink, with market leader Hero MotoCorp in receipt of the most painful spanking.

Currency: rupeePriceWeekMonth
Hero MotoCorp2549.20-7.7%-9.8%
Bajaj Auto3527.75-4.6%-12.5%
TVS Motor1032.25-0.5%+0.6%
Eicher Motors3671.60-0.5%+7.3%
Mahindra1268.20-0.3%-3.6%

CHINA — ANOTHER BAD NEWS WEEK

According to World Bank forecasts, China’s economic output this year will lag behind the rest of Asia for the first time since 1990. The bank has revised down its estimate for Chinese GDP growth to just 2.8%, compared to 8.1% in 2021. At the same time, expectations for the adjacent ASEAN zone have improved. The region, excluding China, is forecast to achieve 5.3% growth in 2022, up from 2.6% last year.

Such unwelcome predictions ensured Chinese market indices continued their negative run. Shanghai’s SSE Composite sank by 2.1% and the blue-chip CSI 300 was 1.3% in arrears. Among listed motorcycle manufacturers, only Yamaha affiliate Jianshe made a lonely gain.

Currency: yuanPriceWeekMonth
Qianjiang22.50-7.8%-18.9%
Zongshen5.96-6.4%-15.2%
Sundiro2.43-3.2%-4.3%
CETC (Jialing)12.75-3.4%-20.1%
Lifan4.67-6.6%+0.6%
Loncin4.51-11.2%-9.1%
Linhai7.72-5.9%-13.7%
Guangzhou Auto12.13-4.9%-13%
CFMoto134.50-5.7%-17.3%
Xinri E-Vehicle19.36-5.5%-14.9%

 

Currency: 

HK dollar

PriceWeekMonth
Jianshe5.20+2.6%-5.1%
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