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SHARE PRICES AND MARKET ANALYSIS

A snapshot of bike and ATV industry share performance across key manufacturers and major global markets at the trading week closure on Friday 21 October 2022. BDN financial editor Roger Willis reports.

USA — ILLUSORY CONFIDENCE

On the face of it, US markets rallied remarkably over the past week in New York, with solid finishes for all key indices. The blue-chip S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average respectively hit 4.7% and 4.9% weekly gains. S&P’s MidCap 400 was 3% up and the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite climbed by 5.2%.

Principal game-changer was a series of better-than-expected quarterly corporate results, engendering a sense of bonhomie that allowed still-nervous investors to briefly take their eyes off looming threats from inflation, remorselessly rising interest rates and the prospect of a harsh recession to follow.

However, such returning confidence didn’t run very deep. Optimism was interspersed with resurgent bouts of extreme trading volatility. These included a snap midweek sell-off, after a couple of multinational consumer goods giants (Procter & Gamble and Nestlé) admitted that their buoyant Q3 growth had been primarily due to inflationary price hikes rather than higher sales volume.

HOGOMETER

Harley-Davidson certainly wasn’t a beneficiary of the brighter market mood. Accelerating rises of 0.3% on Monday and 2% on Tuesday took the share price up to its weekly peak of $36.71. Then Wednesday’s sell-off elicited a 5.1% plunge, down to a nadir of $34.83. And there Harley pretty much lingered throughout Thursday, adding only a negligible two cents. Friday delivered an apparently sound recovery of 3%, until contrasted with the previous week’s closing price, upon which it had gained an even more negligible solitary cent.

Harley’s LiveWire electric bike subsidiary fared better, despite a poor start slicing 5.9% off its value to just seven bucks on Monday. Modest incremental rises then added 19 cents by Thursday evening. A further 7% boost on Friday took it to 3.4% week-on-week positivity.

Currency: dollarPriceWeekMonth
Harley-Davidson35.90N/A-4.4%
Polaris Industries92.76-3.1%-5.8%
Textron62.95+5.2%+5.9%
Ideanomics

(Energica)

0.26+23.8%-25.7%
Niu Technologies3.15-2.2%-30.8%
LiveWire7.693.4%N/A

EUROPE — BOMBS TO DODGE, BEANS TO COUNT

While the war in Ukraine turned increasingly raw, as Putin introduced Iranian-sourced “kamikaze” drones in a concerted attempt to cripple Kviv’s energy infrastructure before winter, European business sentiment improved. Amusement at the chaotic UK political and financial meltdown combined with indicators that the imminent quarterly corporate reporting season had many promising facets.

Key market indices in Europe’s big industrial nations were positive for a third consecutive week. In Germany, Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax closed 2.4% up and Italy’s FTSE MIB in Milan boasted a weekly advance of 3%. Leading automotive stocks with motorcycling connections in both countries achieved improvements. The only fly in Italian ointment was questionable longevity for a new right-wing coalition government that has taken power in Rome.

Currency: euroPriceWeekMonth
BMW77.43+3.2%+8.5%
Volkswagen169.80+4.3%-10.7%
Pierer Mobility57.80+1.2%-7.2%
Piaggio Group2.25+0.9%+5.6%

JAPAN — MONEY TROUBLES

Unresolved monetary policy appertaining to historic weakness for the yen put Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 stock market index on the back foot for a second successive week, this time falling by 0.7%. Signs of some renewed covert intervention by the Japanese government, to shore up the yen, emerged during the week. Analysts were waiting nervously to assess the currency impact on corporate statements due to land in their in-trays shortly. The four indigenous biker-related stocks were all over the place.

Currency: yenPriceWeekMonth
Honda3257-0.7%-6.3%
Yamaha2997+2.1%+4.1%
Suzuki4614-2.3%-5%
Kawasaki2388+1.4%-3.8%

INDIA — LIGHT THE BLUE TOUCH PAPER

Mumbai markets closed on Friday in full-on party mood, ready to conclude the Diwali festive season with a spectacular Festival of Lights firework frenzy over the weekend. (Incidentally, the biggest annual atmospheric pollution incident assaulting Indian lungs.)

The BSE Sensex 30 share index exited on a high, gaining 2.4%. Investors celebrated seasonal sales success for India’s motorcycle industry, during the Diwali build-up through September and most of October, without actually eye-balling full relevant data. Every indigenous biker stock therefore racked up potentially undeserved value.

Currency: rupeePriceWeekMonth
Hero MotoCorp2569.85+1.3%-7%
Bajaj Auto3668.60+2.7%-0.8%
TVS Motor1141.80+5.9%+10%
Eicher Motors3629.50+4.4%-1.6%
Mahindra1256.75+2.1%-1.2%

CHINA — UNWELCOME NEW DAWN

Chinese president Xi Jinping effectively assumed the mantle of Communist “dear leader” in all perpetuity at the finale of his stage-managed Party Congress, on a chilling prospectus of much more state control and far less free enterprise. In response, Shanghai’s all-share SSE Composite and the blue-chip CSI 300 indices respectively sank by 1.1% and 2.6%. Nevertheless, stock prices for seven of China’s eleven listed motorcycle manufacturers rose.

Currency: yuanPriceWeekMonth
Qianjiang20.90-4.1%-14.3%
Zongshen6.43+3.5%+0.9%
Sundiro2.60+3.2%+3.6%
CETC (Jialing)12.73-3.8%-3.6%
Lifan4.46-4.1%-10.8%
Loncin5.09+0.6%+0.2%
Linhai8.18+0.2%-0.2%
Guangzhou Auto12.42-2.4%-2.7%
CFMoto149.87+9.2%+5%
Xinri E-Vehicle22.90+11.6%+11.8%

 

Currency: 

HK dollar

PriceWeekMonth
Jianshe5.30+3.1%+4.5%
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