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SHARE PRICES AND MARKET ANALYSIS

A snapshot of bike and ATV industry share performance across key manufacturers and major global markets at the trading week closure on Friday 3 February 2023. BDN financial editor Roger Willis reports.

USA — JUST THE JOB, OR NOT…

New York market indices initially surged, as the corporate reporting season got into full swing and investors swallowed signs that interest rates on both sides of the Atlantic could be close to peaking. But then US jobs growth data for January unexpectedly accelerated, with more than half a million recruits joining the workforce, spectacularly higher than a forecast 185,000 and double the figure for December. Such blatant evidence that America’s economy is still over-heating, and the Federal Reserve will have to impose further rate rises, saw optimism crumble as the weekend approached.

Blue-chip S&P 500 stocks clung onto reduced average positivity of 1.6% by close of play on Friday. But the Dow Jones Industrial Average sank marginally into red ink by 0.2%. However, S&P’s MidCap 400 and the NASDAQ Composite were buoyed by a series of upbeat corporate performance announcements and finished respectively 3.4% and 3.3% higher.

Even though their worldwide annual retail sales were disappointing, leading US biker stocks benefited from judicious price adjustments elevating bottom lines in respective full-year and Q4 financial reports. Both Harley-Davidson and Indian Motorcycle parent and ATV giant Polaris Industries banked double-digit percentage weekly boosts in equities value, following results releases. Even Harley’s electric spin-off LiveWire was rewarded by a substantial share hike, despite an extensive operating loss set to be exaggerated in 2023.

Currency: dollarPriceWeekMonth
Harley-Davidson51.31+13.6%+17.1%
Polaris Industries118.14+10.2%+14.2%
Textron74.44+3%+3.6%
Ideanomics

(Energica)

0.19-9.5%+11.8%
Niu Technologies5.21-9.4%-0.8%
LiveWire6.70+9.8%+28.6%

EUROPE — STEADY AS SHE GOES

Both the Bank of England and European Central Bank imposed further 0.5% interest rate rises in the past week. But BoE monetary policy committee briefings suggested this could be the final increase in a current anti-inflation cycle. However, ECB president Christine Lagarde was more cautious, vowing to “stay the course” by promising another eurozone hike in March. She also stressed that future rate decisions would depend absolutely on forthcoming economic data.

Eurozone inflation had fallen by more than expected to 8.5% in January, down from 9.2% in December. But core inflation, which doesn’t include volatile food and energy prices, had remained static on 5.2%, confounding economists’ anticipation of a drop to 5.1%.

Nevertheless, market indices across the big eurozone industrial economies remained relatively calm and upbeat, as the corporate reporting season also got in gear on our side of the pond. Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax rose by 2.2% and the FTSE MIB in Milan added 1.9%. German automotives with biker sidelines and Italian PTW leviathan Piaggio enjoyed greater share price advances in a 5%-plus range. KTM, Husqvarna and GasGas parent Pierer Mobility, which had been first off the grid with record 2022 full-year results, was rewarded more modestly by Austrian investors, as a subdued mood on the Wiener Börse lifted its ATX index by just 0.2%.

Currency: euroPriceWeekMonth
BMW97.58+5%+9%
Volkswagen168.15+5.1%+5%
Pierer Mobility79.80+2.3%+14%
Piaggio Group3.70+5.7%+24.6%

JAPAN — WAIT AND SEE

Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index maintained positivity for a second consecutive week, but with a more minor 0.5% gain, while BoJ central bankers continued to flounder around in the ultra-loose dregs of their generally discredited monetary policy.

All four indigenous motorcycle manufacturers are due to report over the coming fortnight — full-year details from Yamaha and Q3 figures from Honda, Kawasaki and Suzuki. Investors awaiting these revelations were clearly keeping their powder dry, through avoidance of excessive speculation on outcomes.

Currency: yenPriceWeekMonth
Honda3198+0.8%+2.4%
Yamaha3200+0.9%+7.1%
Suzuki4793-1%+12.6%
Kawasaki2911-1.3%-0.9%

INDIA — CRASH AND BURN

Although Mumbai’s BSE Sensex 30 index theoretically recovered from the previous week’s 2.1% loss to a 2.5% gain, Indian share trading had actually descended into utter chaos. Accused of fraud and market manipulation, multi-billionaire Gautam Adani watched his eponymous Adani Group — India’s biggest industrial conglomerate — plunge by a cool £83bn in value as stock market regulators suspended a swathe of its major subsidiaries. Related uproar brought proceedings in the Indian parliament to a halt, as accusations flew thick and fast.

With many speculative traders and investment houses understandably hitting the pause button, the three largest indigenous motorcycle manufacturers — Hero, Bajaj and TVS — saw their share prices dragged into the mire. Royal Enfield parent Eicher and Mahindra were miraculously unsullied.

Currency: rupeePriceWeekMonth
Hero MotoCorp2654.25-3%-3.2%
Bajaj Auto3852.55-2.1%+5.8%
TVS Motor1035.60-1.4%+1.1%
Eicher Motors3316.70+4.6%+2%
Mahindra1388.00+5.1%+9.7%

CHINA — BACK TO WORK

The Chinese Lunar New Year festivities now well and truly over, China’s vast population reluctantly got its collective nose back to the grindstone. Enthusiasm was conspicuously absent. The consensus of economic opinion is that the country’s industrial base languishes in a post-Covid mess and much government stimulus will be required to revive growth.

Market indices following the holiday period were lacklustre. Shanghai’s all-share SSE Composite closed on a 0.1% decline while the blue-chip CSI 300 fell by 1%. But biker stocks were comparatively puissant. Only Honda JV partner Sundiro lost ground. Benelli parent Qianjiang continues to enjoy a remarkable renaissance. According to the small print in Harley-Davidson’s recent 2022 full-year results, their relationship remains active, so we may yet see entry-level Harley-Davidson products built by Qianjiang appear in emerging markets.

Currency: yuanPriceWeekMonth
Qianjiang26.32+4.9%+26.7%
Zongshen6.97+7.7%+13.1%
Sundiro2.41-1.2%+2.1%
CETC (Jialing)15.00N/A+8.5%
Lifan4.29+1.7%+6.2%
Loncin5.40+4.9%+6.9%
Linhai9.30+3%+6%
Guangzhou Auto11.79+2.3%+5.1%
CFMoto128.01+8.1%+10.4%
Xinri E-Vehicle19.71+1.1%-3.9%

 

Currency: 

HK dollar

PriceWeekMonth
Jianshe5.16+2.6%+3.8%
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