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SHARE PRICES AND MARKET ANALYSIS

A snapshot of bike and ATV industry share performance across key manufacturers and major global markets at the trading week closure on Friday 10 February 2023. BDN financial editor Roger Willis reports.

USA — BEYOND BELIEF

Unsubstantiated Wall Street sentiment swings on an almost daily basis are starting to get tedious. Primary influence is whether or not the US Federal Reserve is about to taper off a series of interest rises or even cut rates. Fed chairman Jay Powell, an anti-inflationary hawk, keeps on forcefully insisting there will be no policy change any time soon. But many optimistic American investors simply don’t want to believe him, fielding a variety of excuses. And then latest curve ball thrown into the mix was realisation that a large number of recent Q4 corporate performance statements were actually somewhat weaker than could have been expected.

So market indices went up and down like the proverbial stripper’s knickers throughout the past week, session by session, and finally settled on negative conclusions. At the posh end, blue-chip S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks posted respective 1.1% and 0.2% declines. S&P’s MidCap 400 fell by a larger 2.5% margin and the tech-oriented NASDAQ Composite closed 2.4% down.

Led by Harley-Davidson, most biker equities surrendered some of their post-results gains. NASDAQ-listed electrified prospects — Energica parent Ideanomics and Chinese interloper Niu — took the harshest punishment. Harley subsidiary LiveWire, a NYSE S&P MidCap resident, was sole trend dodger.

Currency: dollarPriceWeekMonth
Harley-Davidson47.75-6.9%+4.9%
Polaris Industries115.20-2.5%+8.2%
Textron73.78-0.9%+5%
Ideanomics

(Energica)

0.16-15.8%-15.8%
Niu Technologies4.66-10.6%-14.2%
LiveWire7.61+13.6%+46.1%

EUROPE — DAMAGE CONTRO

Data showing Germany’s industrial output slumped by 3.1% in December immediately upset the Teutonic apfelkarren. A Capital Economics analyst said it could be “an initial sign that, after being fairly resilient throughout last year, German industry is finally suffering the full force of the energy crisis”. Later reassurance from falling inflation in Europe’s largest manufacturing nation suggested such worries might be exaggerated, ameliorating impact on investor confidence. Nevertheless, the Xetra Dax market index in Frankfurt still finished 1.1% down and its two motorcycle-related automotive stocks turned negative.

However, gloom wasn’t a pan-European phenomenon. The FTSE MIB in Milan added value for a third consecutive week, rising by 1.2%. Italian scooter giant Piaggio’s remorseless ascension continued, reaching an accumulative share price increase of almost 30% over the past rolling month. Austrian KTM parent Pierer Mobility also kept on rising — but not as fast as the Wiener Börse ATX index, which put on 1.9%.

Currency: euroPriceWeekMonth
BMW97.77+0.2%+6.6%
Volkswagen163.90-2.5%+1.9%
Pierer Mobility80.50+0.9%+2.3%
Piaggio Group3.82+3.2%+29.9%

JAPAN — CONFUSION REIGNS

Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index had a third week of advances in very small increments, this time 0.6% up, as the Bank of Japan’s governorship succession crisis had no resolution in sight. Retiring BoJ supremo Haruhiko Kuroda is due to leave in April. But Masayoshi Amamiya, the preferred continuity candidate to replace him, has decided not to take the job. Kazuo Ueda, a 71-year-old academic with controversial views on monetary policy, is now being slated for the position. Large exporting Japanese corporates, for whom steady forex rates are crucial, remain deeply perturbed about potential outcomes.

Investors aren’t happy either. They signally failed to reward the three indigenous motorcycle manufacturers reporting excellent Q3 results in the past week. Honda and Suzuki were in receipt of mildly negative reactions and Kawasaki’s share price flatlined.

Currency: yenPriceWeekMonth
Honda3174-0.8%+3.5%
Yamaha3320+3.8%+10.8%
Suzuki4706-1.8%+11.3%
Kawasaki2912N/A+3%

INDIA — TYCOON TRAUMAS

The gigantic Adani Group conglomerate’s implosion was unabated, share prices of its various constituent companies either suspended or in free fall, with losses now alleged to exceed £100bn. The Indian parliament in New Delhi, and both stock exchanges in Mumbai (the BSE and NSE), were in almost continuous turmoil.

Eponymous Adani Group supremo Gautam Adani, once hailed as India’s greatest industrial tycoon, was reportedly struggling to pay down his debt mountain. Against a background of very limited trading, the BSE Sensex 30 market index fell by 0.3%. Four out of the five major listed Indian motorcycle manufacturers were losers.

Currency: rupeePriceWeekMonth
Hero MotoCorp2583.30-2.7%-5.3%
Bajaj Auto3831.65-0.5%+6.3%
TVS Motor1075.35+3.8%+7.3%
Eicher Motors3212.35-3.1%+1.6%
Mahindra1365.45-1.6%+2.8%

CHINA — TONE DOWN, TENSION UP

The post-pandemic rally for Chinese equities during January fizzled out as US-China political and military tensions mounted and Beijing was also distracted by home-grown economic woes. For a second week on the trot, market indices closed negative. Shanghai’s all-share SSE Composite was 0.1% down while the blue-chip CSI 300 fell by 0.9%.

Among China’s eleven listed motorcycle manufacturers, five incurred losses. Gains for five more were distinctly minor and CFMoto flatlined.

Currency: yuanPriceWeekMonth
Qianjiang26.96+2.4%+8.3%
Zongshen7.10+1.9%+14.1%
Sundiro2.35-2.5%-0.8%
CETC (Jialing)15.35+2.3%+16.3%
Lifan4.28-0.2%+4.9%
Loncin5.52+2.2%+7.6%
Linhai9.45+1.6%+8.1%
Guangzhou Auto11.63-1.4%+3.6%
CFMoto128.06N/A+2.3%
Xinri E-Vehicle19.69-0.1%-6.2%

 

Currency: 

HK dollar

PriceWeekMonth
Jianshe5.09-1.4%+4.7%
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