SHARE PRICES AND MARKET ANALYSIS

A snapshot of bike and ATV industry share performance across key manufacturers and major global markets at the trading week closure on Friday 31 March 2023. BDN financial editor Roger Willis reports.

USA — LIVING THE DREAM

It transpired that America’s “core personal consumption expenditures price index”, a somewhat arcane metric which is the US Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, had slowed slightly more than expected in February — to 4.6% year-on-year, down from 4.7% in January. Furthermore, gilding the lily, regular annualised headline CPI inflation for February fell from 5.3% to 5%.

Wall Street equities investors rejoiced, their hallelujahs signalling the best omen yet of an end to remorselessly rising interest rates. Market indices expressed this mood swing with gusto. New York’s blue-chip S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average respectively boasted 3.5% and 3.2% gains at close of play. S&P’s MidCap 400 did better, 4.5% up, and the NASDAQ Composite enjoyed a 3.4% advance.

Friday’s closing NYSE session also marked the final day of Q1, with analysts immediately seeking out clues for the quarterly corporate reporting season. The most instant response among US biker stocks was a turnaround for Harley-Davidson’s extended losing streak. But that still left it seriously in arrears on a monthly basis.

EUROPE — BRIEF BOOSTER

European investor sentiment also rode higher, on the back of eurozone inflation data which had fallen by more than anticipated. Europe’s “harmonised” CPI retreated from an annualised 8.5% in February to 6.9% in March, beating an estimate by economists of 7.1%. Reduced energy costs, owing to the mild winter, were held largely responsible.

Market indices prospered accordingly. In Germany, Frankfurt’s Dax Performance finished 4.5% up, with both biker-related Teutonic automotives comfortably adding value. The Italian FTSE MIB in Milan rose by 4.7%. And in Austria, the Wiener Börse ATX stacked on 6.1%. Remarkably, KTM parent Pierer Mobility’s stock quote on home turf failed to budge at all across the week, probably owing to a paucity of available free float.

However, leaving good news aside, core eurozone inflation figures, which strip out volatile food and energy prices, climbed to a fresh high of 5.7% from 5.6%. Such an increase was in line with forecasts. And so the European Central Bank is unlikely to be deterred from raising interest rates again when it next meets.

JAPAN — PLACE YOUR BETS

For the Japanese, 31 March is a special date because it marks the fiscal year end for most large indigenous companies. The resultant focus on forthcoming corporate reports is therefore bound to stir investor interest. Unsurprisingly, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 climbed to finish 2.4% higher.

Among Japan’s motorcycle manufacturing milieu, Honda, Kawasaki and Suzuki have now finished counting their annual beans and are polishing the proceeds prior to report revelations. Yamaha has done the same with Q1 numbers in its modern calendar year. We await outcomes and, as you can see, local investors are already placing their bets.

INDIA — SAME GAME

Year-end fiscal fancies always drive Indian equities speculators into a frenzy. So the lethargy and downright negativity that has infected stock market activity in Mumbai for much of the past two months disappeared.

Dalal Street’s BSE Sensex 30 index perked up by 2.5% and a straight sweep of positivity for motorcycle manufacturing majors hove into view. Next week should see a primary lift from their Q4 and FY unit sales volumes, followed in due course by turnover and profits nitty-gritty. Casinoesque profit-taking behaviour will become rampant for a while.

CHINA — STEADY AS SHE GOES

Immediate signs that new Chinese prime minister Li Qiang has called off the corporate regulation attack dogs and is allowing indigenous e-commerce giants like Alibaba to restructure without excessive state intervention, helped to bolster otherwise weakening market indices — confused by contradictory economic messages.

Shanghai’s SSE Composite struggled to achieve marginal weekly positivity of just 0.2%. The blue-chip CSI 300 spanning both Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges crept a little higher, up to 0.6%. Biker stocks were very mixed, with six winners and five losers.