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SHARE PRICES AND MARKET ANALYSIS

A snapshot of bike and ATV industry share performance across key manufacturers and major global markets at the trading week closure on Friday 22 April 2022. BDN financial editor Roger Willis reports.

USA — SAME OLD STORY

Substantial US Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes to counter rampant domestic inflation are now a certainty. Only the timing is still vague. And to stir this witch’s brew further, the International Monetary Fund warned that escalating conflict in the Ukraine would trash economic growth everywhere, while simultaneously stoking even more inflationary bonfires.

Central banker rhetoric on both sides of the Atlantic rose in hawkish tempo, calling for restrictions on government stimulus spending and severe credit rationing to reign in inflation’s menace. New York market indices were savaged for a second consecutive week. The blue-chip S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average respectively incurred 2.8% and 1.9% losses, while S&P’s MidCap 400 fell by 1.7%.

HOGOMETER

Harley-Davidson shares staged a text-book display of extreme volatility and trader indecision in the current febrile equities climate. Some of it was driven by optimism about imminent Q1 results, some by the exact opposite.

Action started on Monday with a timid 0.6% gain. The full chorus of true believers joined in on Tuesday, though, pushing Harley’s value up by 5.9% in a single session. That was backed by an additional 1.3% lift on Wednesday. Then harmony collapsed on Thursday, as circumspect investors abruptly began to cash in their chips, wiping off 5%. This rout continued into Friday, with a 3.4% retreat.

Currency: dollarPriceWeekMonth
Harley-Davidson37.86-0.9%-1.9%
Polaris Industries103.16-3.8%-3.1%
Textron67.89-1.1%-9.7%
Ideanomics0.76-14.7%-17.4%

EUROPE — FALSE PROMISES

Mealy-mouthed German Chancellor Olaf Scholz waffled about the risk of nuclear war if he sent heavier weaponry to Ukraine, while pushing back any agenda for the cessation of German bulk natural gas and oil purchases from primary warmonger Russia, to selfishly protect his economy from energy supply disruption.

At the same time, German automotive giants led by BMW told lies, promising that their electrification programmes would involve no job losses whatsoever — despite industry analysts taking a diametrically opposed view, backed by plenty of evidence.

Such assurances were enough to slow Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax index decline to just a weekly 0.2%, and actually boost BMW and Volkswagen shares temporarily back up into positive territory. Italian investors weren’t so easily convinced by seductive sweet nothings, so Milan’s MIB index sank by a solid 2.3%. However, Piaggio managed to buck that trend.

Previously Italy’s flagship electric motorcycle manufacturer, Energica remains domiciled in Modena but has now become an Amercan-owned entity — having delisted from the Borsa Italiana. Its new parent Ideanomics, a private-equity investment firm specialising in e-vehicle opportunities, is resident in New York and has a share listing on that city’s appropriately electronic NASDAQ exchange.

Currency: euroPriceWeekMonth
BMW78.52+3%+0.8%
Volkswagen214.70+2.5%-1.5%
Pierer Mobility81.90+0.7%+1.5%
Piaggio Group2.49+2.9%-2%

JAPAN — FOREX FRIENDLY

The Japanese yen has plunged to its weakest level for 20 years, delivering a welcome boost to Japan’s export-led economy and concomitant surge in the value of of exporter equities. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index therefore managed to stay shiny side up — albeit by a very small margin — for a second week, after a previous fortnight of losses. All four indigenous motorcycle producers maintained their run of positivity in the same timeframe.

Currency: yenPriceWeekMonth
Honda3379+2.6%-2.2%
Yamaha2748+5%+2%
Suzuki4071+4.7%-3.1%
Kawasaki2363+0.7%+4.2%

INDIA — BOZZA BULL****

Britain’s globe-trotting liar extraordinaire Boris Johnson descended on India, vowing a land of milk and honey in cross-trading bounties for Indian industrialists — who either laughed alongside him, or at him.

The latter response may well have been pertinent, because Mumbai’s BSE Sensex 30 equities benchmark promptly plunged by 2%. However, most major local motorcycle producers avoided this fate. Interestingly, the pair that didn’t — Bajaj and TVS — both have oven-ready UK tie-in relationships, respectively with Triumph and Norton. An ill-starred omen?

Currency: rupeePriceWeekMonth
Hero MotoCorp2294.25+0.9%-3.5%
Bajaj Auto3642.50-1.5%-0.3%
TVS Motor645.60-0.7%+7.1%
Eicher Motors2631.50+5.6%+12.6%
Mahindra920.65+6.3%+20.4%

CHINA — CONFUSION REIGNS

Although China’s mega-lockdown to stop Covid in its tracks is still in play, many factories in Shanghai are now attempting to resume production. Some of them are using extreme measures, such as actually quarantining their workforces within previously shuttered plants like slave labour. At the same time, in adjacent areas, more factories are reportedly grinding to a halt.

However, Shanghai’s SSE Composite index and the blue-chip CSI 300 faced more steep declines, respectively diving by 3.9% and 4.2%. Motorcycle manufacturer performance was fairly mixed after the previous week’s almost total rate of attrition, though. Six of the eleven biker listings lost ground.

Currency: yuanPriceWeekMonth
Qianjiang11.28+1.8%-5%
Zongshen5.87-3.8%-0.2%
Sundiro2.37+13.4%+19.7%
CETC (Jialing)10.50-10.2%-24.9%
Lifan3.98-4.8%-11%
Loncin4.40+7.1%+0.5%
Linhai7.99-2.1%-15%
Guangzhou Auto11.61-2.5%+4.3%
CFMoto97.77+7%-10.2%
Xinri E-Vehicle12.23-1.6%-12.2%

 

Currency: 

HK dollar

PriceWeekMonth
Jianshe5.11-1.2%-10.4%
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