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DOWNBEAT MCIA MARKET FORECAST

The Motorcycle Industry Association has issued an inevitably grim forecast for full-year UK bike registrations, given uncertainties created by the Covid-19 outbreak. In a statement, it says:

“After an extended period of market growth which saw PTWs buck the downward trend established by other retail sectors and post year-on-year growth for both 2019 and 2018, MCIA forecasts a fall in sales for 2020, entirely due to the Coronavirus pandemic.

“January and February 2020 both posted higher registration figures than the corresponding months last year, a trend that carried on into the early days of March. However, the arrival of the lockdown all but stopped PTW sales and March overall was down 21% on 2019, with Quarter 1 down 12.2%.

“Assuming an ease to the lock down measures by mid-May and a return to something approaching normality by the start of Q3, MCIA predicts a Q2 fall of around 58%, with the third quarter regaining some ground, to show an increase of 7.7% verses 2019.

“With Q4 predicted to return a modest rise on last year, MCIA sees the full year down 18.2% against last year, with 87,897 units registered (2019 = 107,408).

“Although it is anticipated that all segments of the PTW market will be affected, small capacity commuter and delivery PTWs are expected to fare better than larger, leisure orientated products.

“It is worth noting that these figures assume a 12-month postponement of the end of series regulations for Euro 4 vehicles.  MCIA, ACEM and all other European industry associations have requested a delay to the end of series, due to the existing impacts on the market caused by Covid-19.”

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