Having noted that November’s numbers had suddenly climbed out of a hole, flagging up 9.7% growth after five months of remorseless negativity, we quite rightly smelt a rat, blaming this aberration on a pre-registrations surge relating to urgent discount deals and end-of-season showroom inventory dust-gatherer elimination. However, the extent to which this growing surge was about to heavily distort the market didn’t become apparent until December’s data was revealed.
Panic pre-registrations of remaining Euro 5 stock had swept the board in advance of Euro 5 Plus obligatory compliance from 1 January 2025 onwards. The only exceptions were products with Article 44 or SVA derogation, which will be harder for dealers to sell, given the plethora of pre-registered bargain bikes now looking for individual owners or fleet disposal.
The monthly headcount was horrifying. Total registrations rose by 114% to 11,206 units, contrasting with a tally of 5236 in December 2023. Motorcycles — including scooters — stacked on 122.6% to 10,807, rising from 4854 a year earlier. Lightening up the mood, mopeds put on 6% to 373 and trikes fell by 13.3% to 26.
In the world of internal combustion still driving our industry, 0-50cc kit seemed almost reasonable, 21% up to just 294 units. But the 51-125cc sector cast it into the shade, rocketing upwards by 154.1% to 4709 units plated. A 623-strong Honda CB125F horde claimed departing Euro 5 honours, if not actual sales to end-users. Yamaha similarly disposed of 385 NMax 125 scooters to make space for an upgraded specification.
The 126-500cc firmament blossomed by 165.2% to 1814 units. Among them, some of 146 registered Royal Enfield Himalayan 452 “best seller” models may have represented real sales. But in the 501-750cc slot, which grew by 152.5% to 1265 units, a phalanx of 195 BSA Gold Star models in various hues could be identified as “best seller” members of a pre-registered promotional offer, er, not all actually sold yet. The 751-1000cc range likewise, boasted a collective advance of 101.7% to 1543 units and was headed up by 161 Honda XL750 Transalp steeds, presumably surplus to derogation requirements. Finally, the 1000cc-plus premium field rose by a relatively modest 45.8% to 1362 units, to be fronted by the rare spectacle of domination by 113 Kawasaki KLZ1000 Versys products.
Arriving at “best-selling” brands in December was equally weird. Honda’s boasted a 122.8% ascendancy to 1923 units. So besides those dubious CB125F units, it shuffled out all sorts of odds and sods to be plated and parked in showrooms. Yamaha was tame in comparison, 42.5% up to only 928. Suzuki, on the other hand, was quite spectacular, piling on 230% to 848 units.
According to our spies, Royal Enfield has derogated a lot of bikes, beyond the 768 it plated, but comparison versus last December was impossible because it didn’t make the December 2023 MCIA top-ten chart. Neither did MotoGB brand SYM, which registered 638 units this time around. Some 58 samples of the SYM Orbit III 50 moped-scooter claimed a best-seller accolade.
KTM registrations leapt by 112.5% to 597 units as the cash-strapped Austrian brand desperately discounts by whatever means necessary. Kawasaki was also pre-registering keenly too, 144.7% up to 585 units. But BMW Motorrad was almost uniquely keeping its powder dry, with registrations falling by 7% to 562. Triumph’s hands weren’t quite so clean, with registrations 35.3% higher at 418. Last brand standing was another MotoGB brand, Keeway, plating exactly 400 machines. 180 of these were Superlight “best sellers” in the Custom style category, no doubt approaching their crucial sell-by date.
The sum total of all these last-minute pre-registration shenanigans was to theoretically turn total annual registrations positive by 2.5%, at 116,399 units. However, within that, battery-electric input was 7.7% down to 3750 units.
MCIA chief executive Tony Campbell couldn’t avoid being dead straight about the reality, though. “This is purely a result of unusual registration activity and not an indicator of real growth,” he admitted. “2024 has been an incredibly challenging year for our sector, with dealer closures and rising pressure on businesses to maintain positive cashflow to ride out the next few months.”