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SHARE PRICES AND MARKET ANALYSIS

A snapshot of motorcycle and ATV industry share performance across key manufacturers and major global markets at the trading week closure on Friday 3 May 2024. BDN financial editor Roger Willis reports.

USA — WILL HE, WON’T HE?

US Federal Reserve supremo Jay Powell was once again on a hiding to nothing with American investor stupidity to the fore. Weaker than expected employment growth data for April encouraged evidence-free optimism that Powell would soon be cutting interest rates — despite yet another categorical denial from him, stressing that months of strong economic activity meant rates would remain at their current elevated level until the US economy had definitely cooled and the risk of returning inflation thoroughly subsided.

Thus blinded by wishful thinking, Wall Street traders pushed market indices remorselessly upwards. S&P 500 blue-chip stocks and the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished respectively 0.5% and 1.1% higher. S&P’s MidCap 400 added 1.2% — although MidCap powersport players Harley-Davidson, LiveWire, Polaris and Textron pretty much remained on their Q1 naughty steps. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite rose by 1.4%, with ePTW listings therein — Energica parent Ideanomics and delivery scooter champ Niu — making useful advances.

Currency: dollarPriceWeekMonth
Harley-Davidson35.05+0.9%-16.7%
Polaris Industries83.92+0.1%-13.7%
Textron85.59-1.1%-11.4%
Ideanomics

(Energica)

0.99+7.6%3.1%
Niu Technologies2.29+1.3%+19.3%
LiveWire6.89+1.3%+2.2%

 

EUROPE — Q1 NUMBERS QUESTIONED

European stocks slipped as traders and analysts weighed a flurry of corporate earnings reports and found some dubious issues. Leading eurozone market indices paid the price. In Germany, Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax closed 0.9% in arrears and the FTSE MIB in Milan fell further to a 1.8% loss.

Notable Q1 under-performer was Volkswagen’s Brand Group Progressive, harnessing Audi, Bentley, Lamborghini and Ducati together. The latter Italian motorcycle marque’s performance was particularly disappointing. BMW has yet to reveal its Q1 data. But the share price direction suggested some pain will be reflected in due course.

Currency: euroPriceWeekMonth
BMW102.50-3.7%-8.9%
Volkswagen133.20-4.4%-10.4%
Pierer Mobility36.80-1.1%-16.6%
Piaggio Group2.77+1.8%-3.8%

 

JAPAN — PROPPING UP THE YEN

Money-market data released by the Bank of Japan midweek revealed that it had just deployed roughly £28bn to support the seriously weakened yen on Monday. A second-stage intervention is also apparently on the cards. Some stock market volatility was anticipated as a result but didn’t really transpire. Trading was actually verging on flat, given exporter-heavy Japanese stocks typically benefit from yen weakness anyway. Indeed, the Nikkei 225 index covering Tokyo and Osaka put on 0.8%. Japan’s four biker-related manufacturing giants, all geared to exporting, hardly flinched.

Currency: yenPriceWeekMonth
Honda1783+1.9%-2.9%
Yamaha1427+1.5%+0.5%
Suzuki1806-0.5%+2.7%
Kawasaki4855+3%+4.2%

 

INDIA — NERVES SHOWING

India’s ongoing General Election has surprised the BJP front-runners with some very low turnouts from their supporters, generating raw nerves which have spread into weaker investment activity. Mumbai’s stock market indices — the S&P BSE Sensex 30 and NSE Nifty 50 — sank into flaccidity, both struggling to negligible 0.2% gains. Interest in most motorcycle manufacturing stocks was muted.

Currency: rupeePriceWeekMonth
Hero MotoCorp4552.75+1.4%+0.6%
Bajaj Auto9105.60+1.5%+1.1%
TVS Motor2052.75+1.8%-0.8%
Eicher Motors4599.25-0.1%+14.1%
Mahindra2193.00+7.2%+8.9%

 

CHINA — SPEND, SPEND, SPEND

Latest ploy to revive China’s struggling economy is to overwhelm deliberate suppression of domestic consumer demand, through an accent on excess savings. For years, the Chinese populace has been exhorted to save rather than indulge in spending profligacy. But now the Beijing government is apparently looking at a classic “reverse ferret” on home-grown consumption rather than export earnings.

How much bearing this notion might have on the Chinese general public is debatable. However, it could explain why stock market indices got an otherwise unexpected boost in the past week, Shanghai’s SSE Composite closing 0.5% up and the blue-chip CSI 300 adding 0.6%.

Currency: yuanPriceWeekMonth
Qianjiang17.24+9.8%+27.8%
Zongshen11.73-6.5%+33.4%
Sundiro3.12+0.3%-7.7%
CETC (Jialing)12.64+1.9%-1.5%
Lifan3.21+1.6%N/A
Loncin6.49-1.7%+0.5%
Linhai7.86+3.8%-9.7%
Guangzhou Auto8.78+1.3%+0.9%
CFMoto139.85+0.3%+8.8%
Xinri E-Vehicle10.70+0.1%-5%

 

 

 

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