A snapshot of motorcycle and ATV industry share performance across key manufacturers and major global markets at the trading week closure on Friday 5 July 2024. BDN financial editor Roger Willis reports.
USA — DIVERGENCE DANGERS
US Federal Reserve supremo Jerome Powell’s reluctance to reduce high American interest rates, while consumer price inflation remains sticky, is now acquiring a political dimension as this autumn’s presidential election looms. Leading candidate Donald Trump has begun to rattle his sabre at the Fed’s caution and Powell’s job security, claiming that punitive tariffs on all foreign imports will be an instant fix instead.
High rates are certainly impacting US manufacturers but importers are also feeling the heat. Leading players in the powersports business are a clear example. In the past week, share prices for Harley-Davidson, its electric bike spin-off LiveWire and Polaris all fell sharply, reacting to anticipation of forthcoming weak half-year performance data. And S&P’s MidCap 400 index, where their NYSE listings reside, widely diverged from other Wall Street indices with a 1.2% slump.
However, they weren’t alone. A profit warning from KTM parent Pierer, the biggest European exporter of motorcycles to the US, illustrated how its American sales are also suffering from those high rates.
In contrast, Blue-chip S&P 500 stocks rose by 2%, NASDAQ’s tech-heavy Composite enjoyed a 3.5% surge and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 0.7% up, on the back of big-league investor hubris about imminent rate cuts.
| Currency: dollar | Price | Week | Month |
| Harley-Davidson | 31.88 | -4.9% | -7.2% |
| Polaris Industries | 74.24 | -5.2% | -4.6% |
| Textron | 84.96 | -1% | -0.7% |
| Ideanomics (Energica) | 0.93 | N/A | N/A |
| Niu Technologies | 1.91 | +9.8% | -0.5% |
| LiveWire | 7.22 | -5.7% | +6% |
EUROPE — CALM BEFORE THE STORM
Fears about destabilising political swings in France and the UK receded across the eurozone, with banks and energy companies among the best performers. Key market indices responded accordingly. In Germany, Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax rose by 1.3% while Milan’s FTSE MIB in Italy put on 2.5%. Austria’s Wiener Börse ATX added 2.7%.
Most motorcycle-related automotives were missing from the gravy train, though, as the EU ignored their pleas for mercy and imposed eye-bleedingly tough tariffs on cheap Chinese electric vehicle imports. Retaliation from Beijing is just around the corner. Both BMW and Volkswagen sell a lot of cars in China. And the latter’s already weakening Ducati motorcycle sales to Chinese customers are bound to join the punishment rota. Miraculously, Piaggio escaped for the time being with a welcome share price rise. But its Far Eastern exposure will figure in due course.
| Currency: euro | Price | Week | Month |
| BMW | 87.70 | -0.8% | -3.8% |
| Volkswagen | 112.30 | +0.2% | -9.9% |
| Pierer Mobility | 29.00 | -0.7% | -19.9% |
| Piaggio Group | 2.86 | +2.9% | +0.4% |
JAPAN — PROFIT AND LOSS ACCOUNTS
Currency concerns were parked on the back burner as the Japanese quarterly corporate reporting season approached. The Nikkei 225 stock index appertaining to trades on Tokyo and Osaka exchanges stacked on 3.4%. Among biker stocks, Yamaha appeared to be the really hot ticket. Suzuki wore the dunce’s hat, a status that probably relates to the mixed fortunes of its huge Maruti Suzuki car business in India.
| Currency: yen | Price | Week | Month |
| Honda | 1733 | +0.8% | +3.9% |
| Yamaha | 1585.5 | +6.5% | +5.8% |
| Suzuki | 1797 | -2.9% | -3.3% |
| Kawasaki | 6123 | +0.2% | +10.2% |
INDIA — TIME WASTER
Mumbai market indices retreated once more. S&P’s BSE Sensex 30 and the NSE Nifty 50 posting substantially weaker respective 1.2% and 1.3% gains. However, among motorcycle manufacturers, Hero MotoCorp was the only loser, probably because it was wallowing in a 100th anniversary tribute to Hero founder Brijmohan Lall Munjal’s birth (he died in 2015), launching a commemorative “centennial” model.
| Currency: rupee | Price | Week | Month |
| Hero MotoCorp | 5558.05 | -0.4% | -0.4% |
| Bajaj Auto | 9635.80 | +1.4% | -0.9% |
| TVS Motor | 2430.15 | +2.8% | +0.9% |
| Eicher Motors | 4737.30 | +1.4% | -0.5% |
| Mahindra | 2880.60 | +0.5% | +0.8% |
CHINA — BUSTED FLUSH?
As for market indices, Shanghai’s all-share SSE Composite and the blue-chip CSI 300 respectively declined by 0.6% and 0.9% this week, slightly worse than both falling by 1% in the previous week. Again, nine of China’s ten listed motorcycle producers incurred share price losses. The previous week’s sole trend-bucker, Lifan, copped a severe 13.5% reversal this time around. Luck of the draw this week went to Honda JV affiliate Sundiro, boasting a 3.5% gain. The total value of Chinese stocks traded on the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong exchanges has now plunged by an extraordinary US $6 trillion over the past three years.
| Currency: yuan | Price | Week | Month |
| Qianjiang | 15.17 | -3.7% | -11.6% |
| Zongshen | 9.76 | -8.3% | -27.4% |
| Sundiro | 2.93 | +3.5% | +2.1% |
| CETC (Jialing) | 10.32 | -3.7% | -7.2% |
| Lifan | 3.32 | -13.5% | +16.5% |
| Loncin | 6.44 | -5% | -9.2% |
| Linhai | 6.65 | -3.3% | -6.1% |
| Guangzhou Auto | 7.49 | -3.2% | -13.6% |
| CFMoto | 140.22 | -1.5% | -3.3% |
| Xinri E-Vehicle | 9.32 | -11.4% | -11.1% |