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SHARE PRICES AND MARKET ANALYSIS

A snapshot of motorcycle and ATV industry share performance across key manufacturers and major global markets at the trading week closure on Friday 1 December 2023. BDN financial editor Roger Willis reports.

USA — PAUSE FOR THE DATA DUMP

Wall Street had a rocky start to the week with lack-lustre activity, as investors waited for November’s US inflation and GDP data. When it finally began to surface, the former was upbeat, as annualised CPI estimates dropped to 1.6% excluding energy. But GDP was still running hotter than the Fed wanted, so the possibility of another interest rate was mooted. Traders simply ignored that warning and stocks rallied towards the weekend.

Market indices were mixed, though. S&P’s MidCap 400 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished with solid weekly gains, respectively 2.5% and 2.4% up. But blue-chip S&P 500 stocks and the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite struggled for traction. The former rose by just 0.8% and the latter put on an even weaker 0.4%.

Behind that were the woes of Elon Musk’s social media company X (formerly Twitter), which could face a monumental bankruptcy after major advertisers pulled out in response to Musk’s fondness for posting or endorsing blatantly anti-Semitic tropes.

In the S&P MidCap firmament, Harley-Davidson continued to make progress, with another small step back up the 30-buck ladder. But every other S&P or NASDAQ quoted biker stock lost value — including Harley’s electric spin-off LiveWire.

Currency: dollarPriceWeekMonth
Harley-Davidson31.33+2.7%+8.3%
Polaris Industries87.41-3.5%-5.7%
Textron77.88-0.7%+0.5%
Ideanomics

(Energica)

1.79-5.3%-29%
Niu Technologies2.34-0.8%-2.9%
LiveWire10.88-0.9%+12.6%

 

EUROPE — BRIGHTER PROSPECTS

Inflation data dominated sentiment for European investors too. Annualised eurozone CPI during November fell much faster than expected, down to 2.4% from 2.9% in October, eliciting hearty cheers from both central bankers and equities investors.

The three European stock indices with motorcycle-related content all benefited. Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax led the field, putting on 2.3%. The FTSE MIB in Milan closed 1.7% up and Austria’s Wiener Börse ATX rose by 1.9%. However, any confidence boost didn’t necessarily translate into energetic twists of the bike business throttle. Only BMW shares matched market movements.

Currency: euroPriceWeekMonth
BMW96.19+2.3%+3.5%
Volkswagen118.50-0.8%+1%
Pierer Mobility61.20N/A-0.3%
Piaggio Group2.71+0.7%+1.1%

 

JAPAN — ONGOING CURRENCY GRIEF

The yen’s unwelcome strength continued to disturb Japanese investors and leading Nikkei 225 market index spanning the Tokyo and Osaka exchanges turned negative by 0.6%. However, any impact on exporting motorcycle brands wasn’t consistent.

Currency: yenPriceWeekMonth
Honda1529.5-2.6%-2.8%
Yamaha3857+2.4%+3.8%
Suzuki6058+0.3%+2%
Kawasaki3346-3.2%+1.3%

 

INDIA — GOLDEN PAVEMENT ALERT

The latest shift in US economic policy focus, away from China and towards India, has gullible Indian investors immediately believing the commercial district of Mumbai will soon have streets paved with gold.

Shrugging off any last vestige of post-Diwali hangover, the Bombay Stock Exchange’s S&P BSE Sensex index stacked on 2.3% during the past week. Every listed motorcycle manufacturer was positive, with recently announced export plans of TVS and Hero ensuring pole positions — particularly on a rolling month basis.

Currency: rupeePriceWeekMonth
Hero MotoCorp3760.00+5.9%+21.7%
Bajaj Auto6046.05+2%+12.6%
TVS Motor1909.80+6.1%+19.4%
Eicher Motors3891.20+1.1%+13.5%
Mahindra1625.50+4.7%+10.7%

 

CHINA — RECOVERY ISN’T WORKING

A major independent survey of Chinese factory activity and output during November underlined that much more investment stimulus from the Beijing government will be necessary, to get industry back up to pre-Covid productivity levels.

Investors clearly thought the likelihood of that happening was slim. So key market indices declined for a second consecutive week. The blue-chip CSI 300, featuring the very biggest companies quoted on Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges, fell sharply by 1.6%. Shanghai’s all-share SSE Composite slipped by a far less grievous 0.3%.

Among biker listings, six out of the ten accrued value. But significantly, CFMoto accelerated its losing streak. A shining example of Chinese motorcycle industry consolidation, with an increasingly international reach, CFMoto should be a hot investment proposition. The reasons why it fails to fulfil this role remain a mystery.

Currency: yuanPriceWeekMonth
Qianjiang13.40-3.1%-0.6%
Zongshen6.79+0.9%+5.3%
Sundiro2.82+0.7%+10.6%
CETC (Jialing)15.09+2.7%+6.6%
Lifan4.22-0.9%+10.8%
Loncin5.62N/A+1.3%
Linhai10.21+1.9%+5.7%
Guangzhou Auto9.85+0.5%-2.5%
CFMoto91.06-8.9%-10.5%
Xinri E-Vehicle14.13+0.8%+0.9%

 

 

 

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