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SHARE PRICES AND MARKET ANALYSIS

A snapshot of motorcycle and ATV industry share performance across key manufacturers and major global markets at the trading week closure on Friday 22 December 2023. BDN financial editor Roger Willis reports.
USA — SEASONAL GIFT BONANZA
Wall Street packed up for a brief Yuletide pause in good cheer, with its blue-chip S&P 500 index heading for an eighth straight week of gains — a record not achieved since 2017 — and on course for its third-best year in the past decade, despite some volatile interludes. No matter that glamorous S&P stocks and the Dow Jones Industrial Average only managed respective 0.8% and 0.2% weekly improvements. Positivity counts.
Icing on the cake, driving stocks remorselessly upwards, was news the US inflation had cooled even further during November. CPI was down to just an annualised 3.1% and core PCE fell to a six-month annualised rate of 1.9% — sneaking below the US Federal Reserve’s official 2% target and underlining that base interest cuts are increasingly imminent.
Lower on indices pecking order, S&P’s MidCap 400 and the NASDAQ Composite both out-paced the posh end of equities trading, respectively 1.5% and 1.2% up. NYSE MidCap biker shares  — Harley-Davidson, Polaris, Textron and LiveWire — all benefited.

Currency: dollar

Price

Week

Month

Harley-Davidson

35.91

+1.2%

+17.7%

Polaris Industries

94.61

+3%

+4.5%

Textron

80.43

+1.4%

+2.6%

Ideanomics

(Energica)

1.89

+18.1%

N/A

Niu Technologies

2.13

-1.4%

-9.7%

LiveWire

11.84

+8.4%

+7.8%
EUROPE — GLÜWEIN IN SHORT SUPPLY
Recessionary fears continued to fester on our side of the Atlantic. Ignoring the UK, which is slipping firmly in that direction for its own self-inflicted reasons, fertiliser is also hitting the fan for major industrial economies in both Germany and Italy. For a second week on the trot, their market indices slumped and festive spirit was inevitably muted.
Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax closed on a 0.3% loss and the FTSE MIB in Milan was 0.1% down. The former saw greater retreats for BMW and Volkswagen stocks, equally troubled by the weakening prospects for their Chinese manufacturing outposts. KTM parent Pierer got some minor relief but Piaggio bucked the trend.
Pressure on European energy stocks also grew, as Red Sea access to the Suez Canal became hazardous. Oil companies have begun diverting their tankers around the Cape of Good Hope, rather than risk Iran-inspired drone and missile strikes. Winter fuel price inflation will follow if this situation isn’t swiftly resolved.

Currency: euro

Price

Week

Month

BMW

100.64

-2.3%

+7%

Volkswagen

119.60

-4%

+0.1%

Pierer Mobility

47.50

+0.2%

-22.4%

Piaggio Group

2.98

+2.1%

+10.8%
JAPAN — SAME TEDIOUS STORY
 
The Bank of Japan remains locked in a battle to end decades of deflation. But it has once more opted to persist with a negative interest rate policy, forcing the yen’s value down again versus the US dollar. Responding on a “better the devil you know” basis, Tokyo and Osaka’s Nikkei 225 stock index recovered slightly, rising by 0.6%, from previous weekly losses engendered by a political slush-fund scandal. Motorcycle manufacturer share prices all bounced back obediently, led by institutional investors.

Currency: yen

Price
Week
Month
Honda
1446.5
+1.6%
-7.9%
Yamaha
3913
+4%
+3.9%
Suzuki
6100
+9.6%
+1%
Kawasaki
3058
+4.1%
-11.6%
INDIA — DUCK AND DIVE
As the New Year and corporate Q3 results revelations approached, India’s quixotic investment community developed its usual dose of cold feet and a minor sell-off ensued. Among market indices, Mumbai’s BSE Sensex 30 dropped by 0.5% and the NSE Nifty 50 flatlined. Major bike producer stocks were mixed, with a narrow majority losing value.

Currency: rupee

Price

Week

Month

Hero MotoCorp
3935.70
+1%
+10.9%
Bajaj Auto
6372.10
+1.5%
+7.4%
TVS Motor
1967.50
-2.5%
+9.3%
Eicher Motors
4006.05
-1.3%
+4.1%
Mahindra
1634.25
-5.3%
+5.2%
CHINA — GIMME SHELTER
China’s blue-chip CSI 300 finished a mere 0.1% down. But that masked a loss of more than 13% in 2023 to date, given the Chinese economy isn’t recovering. Instead, indigenous investors and the entrepreneurs they used to back are fleeing. “Capital flight” has become name of the game, despite the Beijing government’s strenuous efforts to block all exits.
According to the Institute of International Finance, there have been enormous cross-border capital outflows from China for five consecutive quarters, allegedly amounting to more than US $500bn. Although direct overseas investments have been blocked, many wizard wheezes are being employed to get money out. A common route is permissable purchase of tradable life insurance policies in Hong Kong, which are then typically cashed in through Singapore brokers. The resultant liberated capital is then moved on elsewhere.
Motorcycle manufacturers are now among many Chinese industries being starved of homespun capital investment, and watching their equity valuations progressively shrivel.

Currency: yuan

Price
Week
Month
Qianjiang
12.08
-3.4%
-12.7%
Zongshen
6.58
-1.2%
-2.2%
Sundiro
3.01
+1.7%
+7.5%
CETC (Jialing)
13.74
-2.1%
-6.5%
Lifan
3.60
-3%
-15.5%
Loncin
5.12
-4.5%
-8.9%
Linhai
10.73
-12.8%
+7.1%
Guangzhou Auto
8.62
-3.5%
-12%
CFMoto
94.07
+4.8%
-5.9%
Xinri E-Vehicle
12.29
-0.3%
-12.3%
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