Analysis of UK powered two-wheeler market performance over the past year poses more questions than answers as we go forward into 2022. BDN financial editor Roger Willis reports. Inevitably, the industry breathed a massive sigh of relief following alleged solid recovery from pandemic punishment in 2021. But when we crunch registration numbers versus our pre-Covid position in 2019, the picture is not so pretty.
Sure, there was a “what might have been” element of underlying demand many dealers couldn’t satisfy. Their inability to adequately refresh stock in the face of supply-chain seizures, component shortages and manufacturing interruptions has yet to be resolved. More headwinds are undoubtedly on the way. And whether they can be overwhelmed is a moot point.
At a glance, exceeding 2019’s total by 6.5% to achieve 114,371 registrations looks fine. But devilry is in the detail. The 0-50cc sector stacked on a splendid 53.4% to 10,374 machines. However, according to MCIA statistics, that tally included 4886 up-to-4kW electric steeds, for which a marketplace didn’t really exist two years previously.
Muscular growth was also evident in the 51-125cc sector, 20% up to 40,664, the vast majority still petrol-powered. Primary driver didn’t come from industry pundit fantasies about personal mobility seduction, though. A huge boom in fleet scooter sales to delivery firms and accident claims management operators was largely responsible. Sustainable? If hospitality businesses fully reboot and the appeal of meals on wheels declines, maybe not.
Across the same timeframe, more profitable 126cc-plus products oriented towards leisure and enthusiast pursuits suffered in comparison to 2019, falling by 5.1% to 63,333. The 126-650cc sector was 2.1% down. 651-1000cc bikes lost 5.8%. Over-1000cc machines fell by 7.7%. So much for solid recovery.
Winners and losers
The fortunes of leading individual manufacturers were fickle too. Honda may have maintained market leadership throughout, but it has yet to fully regain losses, ending 2021 in arrears by 9.2% against 2019 headcount. And much of this partial recovery was dependent on small-capacity sales.
Yamaha approached the Covid era on a losing streak anyway, from which the brand has staged a notionally remarkable 16.9% bounce-back. The cost was a seriously weakened model mix, though. More than a third of Yamaha’s entire annual registrations in 2021 consisted of fleet-friendly but margin-starved NMax 125 scooters.
BMW Motorrad fared a lot better over this period, pulling back to finish only 3.1% down on its tally two years ago. And considering the R1250GS platform’s large-capacity motorcycle market hegemony, as part of a predominantly premium-priced range, nobody in the company will be losing much sleep about the difference.
Like Yamaha, Triumph became a clear winner on volume, a 2021 resurgence beating 2019 by 6.7% and recovering mightily from 2020’s harsh dip. But similarly, there was a cost to this success. Triumph’s new entry-level 660 Trident achieved best-seller status at a budget price point. Competing with Royal Enfield is harder work than coffer-filling premium focus. Despite that, the brand appears to have coped with supply-chain bottlenecks more adeptly than competitors also sourcing the bulk of their wares from the Far East.
The same cannot be said for principal Chinese flag carrier Lexmoto. Having been star of the show in 2020, adding impressively to a big advance in 2019, Lexmoto’s luck blatantly ran out in 2021. Already saddled with a four-figure surplus of preregistered Euro 4 machines to sell through at the beginning of last year, problems were compounded by maritime container shipping terminals around Shanghai and Shenzhen repeatedly grinding to a halt. With a quantity of no-mileage “used” stock to shift first and then a paucity of new machines, Lexmoto plated 4325 fewer bikes in 2021, its total also 10.9% down on 2019.
The final pair of brands we can quantify in our charts were obviously victims of global supply issues as well. KTM, which ships smaller road models from India, ended last year 14.2% behind its conclusion in 2019. Kawasaki, dependent on Japanese manufacturing, dropped by 23.8%.
No respite for manufacturers
Such economic challenges worldwide, along with the pandemic, haven’t gone away. And new threats are emerging. Both factory-gate and consumer price inflation – the latter heading rapidly past a 6% marker in the UK and elsewhere – are set to push up the cost of credit in coming months as central bankers desperately seek to respond by progressively raising interest rates. In addition, already soaring energy prices, led by natural gas, are undermining consumer confidence and spending power throughout Europe. While business optimism is still resilient, we could be in for a roller-coaster ride in 2022.