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SHARE PRICES AND MARKET ANALYSIS

A snapshot of bike and ATV industry share performance across key manufacturers and major global markets at the trading week closure on Friday 23 September 2022. BDN financial editor Roger Willis reports.

USA — FERTILISER HITS THE FAN

A barrage of counter-inflationary central bank base interest rate increases spooked investors everywhere. Share prices tumbled throughout what proved to be a tumultuous week. The US Federal Reserve led this rate hike charge with its latest rise of 75 basis points and tacitly admitted that America’s economy had already slumped into recession.

In New York, market indices were savaged. Losses for the blue-chip S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average continued at pace, this time ending on respective weekly declines of 4.6% and 4%. S&P’s MidCap 400 fell by 5.9% and the NASDAQ Composite finished 5.1% in arrears.

HOGOMETER

Harley-Davidson shares actually kicked off with a trend-bucking 2.3% price increase to $41.66 on Monday. But they then plunged into a remorseless retreat as market confidence progressively collapsed — falling by 1.8% on Tuesday, 2% on Wednesday, 3.6% on Thursday and 2.9% on Friday.

Harley’s independent NYSE listing and share float for its LiveWire electric motorcycle brand was noticeably overdue and may have been quietly postponed. Lamentable stock performance over the past month by the pair of NASDAQ-listed ePTW presences — Energica parent Ideanomics and Chinese giant Niu — was hardly a good omen for LiveWire IPO prospects.

Currency: dollarPriceWeekMonth
Harley-Davidson37.54-7.8%-6.1%
Polaris Industries98.43-8.7%-15.9%
Textron59.43-5.4%-8%
Ideanomics

(Energica)

0.35-31.4%-41.7%
Niu Technologies4.55-8.6%-26%

EUROPE — GADERENE SWINE

The UK’s Bank of England and various other non-eurozone EU central bankers joined the anti-inflationary rush to raise interest rates too. European Central Bank supremo Christine Lagarde was poised on the brink as well, sharply aware that eurozone inflation was about to exceed 10%. Economies across Europe are all sliding into recession, whether or not the relevant governments are prepared to officially recognise such depressing news.

In Germany, Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax stock market index fell by 3.6%, while Italy’s FTSE MIB in Milan sank further, suffering a 4.7% weekly loss. All four European motorcycle-related share listings copped varying degrees of negativity.

Currency: euroPriceWeekMonth
BMW71.38-4%-2.4%
Volkswagen190.20-3.1%+2.9%
Pierer Mobility62.30-0.6%+3.3%
Piaggio Group2.13-6.6%-13.8%

JAPAN — PROPPING UP THE YEN

Finally accepting that perhaps the Bank of Japan’s ultra-loose policy on currency support (or lack of it) wasn’t such a good idea, the Japanese government over-ruled the BoJ and intervened to strengthen the yen by selling US dollars for the first time since the late 1990s. So far this year, the yen has lost about a fifth of its value against the resurgent dollar and fallen to a 24-year low.

Investors in Japan’s exporting industries weren’t pleased by the move, though, because they like a weak yen. So Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 stock index remained firmly negative for a second consecutive week, falling by 1.5%. All four indigenous motorcycle-related brands incurred share price losses again, in parallel.

Currency: yenPriceWeekMonth
Honda3476-1.4%-4.9%
Yamaha2878-0.5%-0.6%
Suzuki4857-2.1%+0.5%
Kawasaki2483-0.6%-6.3%

INDIA — IGNORING THE OBVIOUS

Extremely dubious government economic growth forecasts held Mumbai’s BSE Sensex 30 stock index in the red for a second consecutive week, this time imposing a 1.3% retreat. But an automotive sector sell-off nevertheless petered out, as eager speculators hunted for “buy the dip” bargains. Therefore, indigenous Indian motorcycle manufacturers bounced back into positivity.

Currency: rupeePriceWeekMonth
Hero MotoCorp2762.05+2.9%-2.3%
Bajaj Auto3698.90+0.3%-8.8%
TVS Motor1037.55+1.2%+8.7%
Eicher Motors3688.45+3.9%+9.9%
Mahindra1272.30+1.8%-0.2%

CHINA — MINOR MOOD SWING

Renewed Beijing sabre-rattling over US backing for Taiwan, and an absence of any fresh upbeat economic news, didn’t stop Chinese investors from perking up after their previous week’s spanking. Shanghai’s all-share SSE Composite index put on 1.2% and the blue-chip CSI 300 rose by a firmer 1.9%.

However, market appetite for motorcycle industry investments didn’t really improve. Out of eleven biker listings, only Honda affiliate Sundiro and Jialing parent CETC escaped red ink.

Currency: yuanPriceWeekMonth
Qianjiang24.40-1.9%-10.1%
Zongshen6.37-0.6%-4.4%
Sundiro2.51+2.9%+0.4%
CETC (Jialing)13.20+3.9%-2.2%
Lifan5.00-2.7%-1.8%
Loncin5.08-0.4%+2%
Linhai8.20-2.5%-8%
Guangzhou Auto12.76-1.4%-11.9%
CFMoto142.68-7.3%-10.2%
Xinri E-Vehicle20.48-5.8%-14.2%

 

Currency: 

HK dollar

PriceWeekMonth
Jianshe5.07-1.9%-9.1%
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