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SHARE PRICES AND MARKET ANALYSIS

A snapshot of bike and ATV industry share performance across key manufacturers and major global markets at the trading week closure on Friday 25 March 2022. BDN financial editor Roger Willis reports.

USA — LOOKING FOR CLUES

The nerves of Wall Street traders were frayed right from the off, as they struggled to draw conclusions from the latest developments in Ukraine and the prospect of sustained global inflation — with both associated geopolitical roots and an as-yet unclear domestic timescale from the US Federal Reserve on progressively raising interest rates.

Inevitably, this generated volatility, with market indices swerving all over the place session by session. The worst of it was a sharp sell-off on Wednesday, as American investors indulged in a fierce bout of profit-taking, following the previous week’s muscular bounce-back. Nevertheless, the blue-chip S&P 500 finished with a reasonable 1.8% positivity. S&P’s MidCap 400 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average did less well, struggling to only respective 0.2% and 0.3% weekly gains.

HOGOMETER

Harley-Davidson graphically illustrated this roller-coaster ride, albeit as a firm net loser. On Monday, its share price sank by 2.3% from the previous week’s solid 4.8% rise to $40.35, but then clawed back a 1.2% gain on Tuesday. But on Wednesday, investors rushed to cash in their chips and Harley stock plunged by 5.3% to a nadir of $37.78. Creeping recoveries of 1% on Thursday and 1.2% on Friday followed, leaving the price still 4.3% down.

Currency: dollarPriceWeekMonth
Harley-Davidson38.61-4.3%-5.5%
Polaris Industries106.50-3.4%-11%
Textron75.21+0.1%+5.2%

EUROPE — MIXED MESSAGES

The key European buzzword was “stagflation” — consistently weak economic growth against a persistent upwards inflationary curve. However, this was to some extent alleviated by US undertakings on enhanced LNG supply to take the edge off an already serious energy crisis. Analysts claimed that stocks across Europe had recouped their losses incurred when war in Europe was declared a month earlier. But their view didn’t stand up to close analysis.

In Germany, Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax index finished 0.7% down. But Italian sentiment was brighter, with the FTSE MIB in Milan boasting a 1.4% rise. It was noticeable, though, that Volkswagen — Europe’s biggest automotive industry player — remained a loser. Many of its factories are shuttered owing to Ukraine-related component shortages.

Currency: euroPriceWeekMonth
BMW77.89+2.6%-11.5%
Volkswagen218.00-1%-9.6%
Pierer Mobility80.70+0.9%+0.1%
Piaggio Group2.54+0.8%-4.9%
Energica3.19N/A+1.6%

JAPAN — AGAINST ALL ODDS

Japanese sentiment remained remarkably resilient. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index stacked on further value, adding 4.9% to the previous week’s glorious 6.6% gain. All four indigenous motorcycle manufacturers continued to recover at pace. And deteriorating supply-chain issues for bike exporters serving European markets were also largely ignored. North Korea tested its largest-ever ballistic missile during the week, which landed in the Sea of Japan, but this undoubtedly threatening gesture also failed to undermine confidence.

Currency: yenPriceWeekMonth
Honda3456+3.4%-2.2%
Yamaha2695+8%+6.5%
Suzuki4200+3.4%-9.2%
Kawasaki2268+6.9%+10.2%

INDIA — ABRUPTLY FADING BONHOMIE

International criticism of the Indian government’s two-faced stance on dealing with Russia mounted inexorably. The Mumbai investment community began to get immediate jitters in response and its previously bountiful BSE Sensex 30 stock index flipped from happy positivity to a 0.9% reversal. Four out of India’s five major biker stocks followed suit. Bajaj only escaped by the skin of its teeth.

Currency: rupeePriceWeekMonth
Hero MotoCorp2378.40-1.7%-7%
Bajaj Auto3654.35+0.1%+4.2%
TVS Motor603.00-1.4%-4.6%
Eicher Motors2336.85-4.1%-11.1%
Mahindra764.75-3.7%-5.3%

CHINA — JAM TOMORROW

China’s economic downturn, aggravated by Covid-related lockdown of many key industrial facilities, isn’t going to get better any time soon, despite government stimulus intervention promises.

Shanghai’s SSE Composite and the CSI 300 index covering Shanghai and Shenzhen blue-chips fell for a fifth consecutive week, respectively by 1.2% and 2.1% on this occasion. However, listed motorcycle manufacturers staged a partial rebound. A narrow majority added value in relatively modest portions. Of course, such investor choices might represent a Chinese version of “buying the dip”.

Currency: yuanPriceWeekMonth
Qianjiang11.87+1.5%-13.5%
Zongshen5.88+0.3%-10.6%
Sundiro1.98-4.8%-9.6%
CETC (Jialing)13.99+0.6%-2.8%
Lifan4.47-4.9%-17.7%
Loncin4.38-1.1%-9.3%
Linhai9.40+2.3%+4%
Guangzhou Auto11.13-3.3%-14.1%
CFMoto108.92-1.6%-16.4%
Xinri E-Vehicle13.93+1.5%-4.9%

 

Currency: 

HK dollar

PriceWeekMonth
Jianshe5.70+1.2%-3.6%
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