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SHARE PRICES AND MARKET ANALYSIS

A snapshot of motorcycle and ATV industry share performance across key manufacturers and major global markets at the trading week closure on Friday 7 June 2024. BDN financial editor Roger Willis reports.

USA — CASINO CRETINS
It’s getting progressively more difficult to assume that not all American investors are idiots. Once more, a surge in equities on Wall Street was driven by expectations of an imminent interest rate cut, and then collapsed when jobs growth data for May exceeded forecasts substantially and it became obvious that the US economy is still overheating. Against that background, there is no chance of a reduction in rates by Federal Reserve central bankers, but traders keep on believing otherwise — boosting market indices with careless bets.
Most evidence of this farce came from the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite, which closed a muscular 2.4% up. Blue-chip S&P 500 stocks added 1.3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average clung onto 0.3% positivity. However, common sense prevailed in S&P’s MidCap 400 territory, firmly heading in the opposite direction with a 2.1% weekly decline.
Biker stocks therefore took hammerings. The only exception was Harley-Davidson’s LiveWire battery-electric indulgence, attracting a different sort of fantasist.

Currency: dollar

Price

Week

Month

Harley-Davidson

34.37

-4.2%

-0.9%

Polaris Industries

77.79

-6.9%

-11.2%

Textron

85.60

-2.3%

-3.3%

Ideanomics

(Energica)

0.93

-7%

-9.7%

Niu Technologies

1.92

-6.3%

-17.2%

LiveWire

6.81

+4.9%

-3.5%
EUROPE — GAMBLING ON GAINS
Despite still uncomfortably static eurozone inflation figures, the European Central Bank finally took a chance and lowered interest rates for the first time in five years. But investor celebrations soon petered out and market indices were mixed by Friday. Frankfurt’s key Xetra Dax managed to hold a 0.4% gain and the Borsa Italiana’s FTSE MIB in Milan finished 0.5% up. But the Wiener Börse ATX in Austria fell by 0.5%.
Motorcycle-related Teutonic automotive stocks weakened, although that had more to do with an imminent tit-for-tat tariff war over an influx of cheap and cheerful Chinese EVs.

Currency: euro

Price

Week

Month

BMW

91.18

-1.8%

-10.3%

Volkswagen

124.70

-4.9%

-7.6%

Pierer Mobility

36.20

-4.2%

-3.7%

Piaggio Group

2.85

+0.7%

-2.4%
JAPAN — CURRENCY CONUNDRUMS
While Tokyo and Osaka’s key Nikkei 225 index returned to positivity, rising by 0.5% after a fortnight of losses, ineffectual Bank of Japan efforts to stabilise the yen are now clearly upsetting the applecart for Japanese exporters. Among them, the four indigenous motorcycle manufacturing brands all suffered share price slumps.

Currency: yen

Price
Week
Month
Honda
1667.5
-5.8%
-4%
Yamaha
1499
-2.2%
+4.2%
Suzuki
1858.5
-0.3%
+4%
Kawasaki
5555
-7%
-4.6%
INDIA — SWING LOW, SWING HIGH
Extreme Hindu Nationalist Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party failed to achieve an outright majority in India’s General Election and fertiliser briefly hit the fan big-time on Mumbai’s stock markets in an unprecedented sell-off. But then Modi swiftly signed up to a coalition deal with other Hindu loonies and the market meltdown faded away.
By the weekend, indices had staged a miraculous recovery. S&P’s BSE Sensex 30 closed 3.7% up and the NSE Nifty 50 put on 3.4%. Most listed motorcycle producers wallowed in this glory. Only Royal Enfield parent Eicher’s share price advance was somewhat subdued.

Currency: rupee

Price

Week

Month

Hero MotoCorp
5581.85
9%
+14.4%
Bajaj Auto
9724.55
+7%
+8.3%
TVS Motor
2407.65
+10.5%
+16.7%
Eicher Motors
4762.00
+0.6%
+2.2%
Mahindra
2857.45
+14%
+30.3%
CHINA — IT’S A GAS, GAS, GAS…
Much to Western amusement, a huge gas pipeline deal between Russia and China has hit the buffers after Beijing played hardball over prices with Moscow. Underlining their dispute is the harsh reality that Vladimir Putin is now increasingly dependent on Xi Jinping for economic support, so the latter thinks he can call all the shots — and one of them will be extraordinarily cheap gas in vast quantities.
For the time being, their differences are unresolved, leaving energy issues hanging over Chinese industry. Stock market indices promptly responded to such concerns, Shanghai’s all-share SSE Composite dropping by 1.2% and the blue-chip CSI 300 retreating by 0.4%. Eight of China’s ten listed motorcycle manufacturers lost value.

Currency: yuan

Price
Week
Month
Qianjiang
17.17
-4.1%
-22%
Zongshen
13.45
+15.8%
+16.2%
Sundiro
2.87
-6.8%
-9.5%
CETC (Jialing)
11.12
-5.1%
-8.1%
Lifan
2.85
-7.5%
-13.1%
Loncin
7.09
-3.1%
-10.5%
Linhai
7.08
-9.3%
-14.6%
Guangzhou Auto
8.67
+3%
-1.3%
CFMoto
145.00
-0.8%
-9.5%
Xinri E-Vehicle
10.48
-15.3%
-17.3%
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